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EURUSD prediction
Feb 06, 2014 at 14:22
734流覽
7 Replies
Feb 06, 2014 at 20:53
Hello friend,
The pair is at a critical level!!!
Although, I cannot reject a move higher I believe that going short is still a better trade to consider...
As long as 1.36290 holds, I favor the bearish view with target at 1.3415 at first and then 1.3300 and even much lower in the long run.
That means that the risk/reward ratio is enormous at the current point and it's at least worth to consider it.
The spike on Draghi's comments stopped around a 61.8% retracement and although the correction is deep is still below wave 1 (magenta).
Take a look at this chart:
http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1416180/eurusd-h4-fxprimus-ltd
Regards, D.
The pair is at a critical level!!!
Although, I cannot reject a move higher I believe that going short is still a better trade to consider...
As long as 1.36290 holds, I favor the bearish view with target at 1.3415 at first and then 1.3300 and even much lower in the long run.
That means that the risk/reward ratio is enormous at the current point and it's at least worth to consider it.
The spike on Draghi's comments stopped around a 61.8% retracement and although the correction is deep is still below wave 1 (magenta).
Take a look at this chart:
http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1416180/eurusd-h4-fxprimus-ltd
Regards, D.
Feb 06, 2014 at 20:57
This is so strange... I have posted here around an hour ago, and suddenly my post disappeared!!!
Anyway, I'm posting again...
My view about EUR/USD is bearish!
Although the up-move today was sharp after Draghi's comments, the pair stopped its rally at very critical level!
It appears that the single currency stopped at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of its previous downtrend and also wave 4 (magenta) could be completed here. Futhermore, the H4 RSI and Stochstics are both still bearish and the up-move stopped by a trendline (red thick) that provided a lot of resistance in the past. So, as long as 1.3629, which is wave 1 (magenta) low is not reached the elliott wave count is valid and thus I favor the bearish scenario for the pair.
If the count is correct then a (magenta) wave 5 is about to unfold, targeting 1.3415. This will conclude wave 1 (red) and new correction will start, which will likely return prices around 1.3600 level and then the (red) wave 3 will drive the pair lower @1.3300-1.3000 area.
So, I believe that the pair will fluctuate a lot in the range of 1.3600-1.3400 for some time probable until the end of March. After all, Draghi said the ECB sees a protracted period of low inflation, not full blown deflation, and reiterated that the bank is “monitoring developments closely" and won't likely make any decisions until the bank reviews more economic indicators.
Take a look at this chart in order the see my count that I'm explaining above:
http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1417491/eurusd-h4-fxprimus-ltd
Anyway, I'm posting again...
My view about EUR/USD is bearish!
Although the up-move today was sharp after Draghi's comments, the pair stopped its rally at very critical level!
It appears that the single currency stopped at the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of its previous downtrend and also wave 4 (magenta) could be completed here. Futhermore, the H4 RSI and Stochstics are both still bearish and the up-move stopped by a trendline (red thick) that provided a lot of resistance in the past. So, as long as 1.3629, which is wave 1 (magenta) low is not reached the elliott wave count is valid and thus I favor the bearish scenario for the pair.
If the count is correct then a (magenta) wave 5 is about to unfold, targeting 1.3415. This will conclude wave 1 (red) and new correction will start, which will likely return prices around 1.3600 level and then the (red) wave 3 will drive the pair lower @1.3300-1.3000 area.
So, I believe that the pair will fluctuate a lot in the range of 1.3600-1.3400 for some time probable until the end of March. After all, Draghi said the ECB sees a protracted period of low inflation, not full blown deflation, and reiterated that the bank is “monitoring developments closely" and won't likely make any decisions until the bank reviews more economic indicators.
Take a look at this chart in order the see my count that I'm explaining above:
http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1417491/eurusd-h4-fxprimus-ltd
Feb 06, 2014 at 22:45
Price action is still choppy since there are still speculators with bullish view about the pair.
But if the pair turn bearish or give several signals of bearish behavior, more people will jump in and the drop will be sharp. It is very unlikely for a downtrend to "slow", markets are generally rising steady and slowly and falling sharply.
Let's wait and see then :)
But if the pair turn bearish or give several signals of bearish behavior, more people will jump in and the drop will be sharp. It is very unlikely for a downtrend to "slow", markets are generally rising steady and slowly and falling sharply.
Let's wait and see then :)
Mar 11, 2014 at 07:59
Hi Forex21,
I also like phrases like "trade what you see, not what you think!", "plan your trades and trade your plan!" and so on... but when it comes to real trading... you have to predict and you have to trade your predictions... since you can never (literally) trade what you see, since what's visible is past and you can only trade future and thus predictions....
So yes... you predict and you manage risk for those cases that you'll be wrong and since this, as you very accurately implied, happens often... you need to do very good risk management.... then you'll have the possibility to re-asses, re-evaluate and based on new data, make new prediction that you will trade!
I also like phrases like "trade what you see, not what you think!", "plan your trades and trade your plan!" and so on... but when it comes to real trading... you have to predict and you have to trade your predictions... since you can never (literally) trade what you see, since what's visible is past and you can only trade future and thus predictions....
So yes... you predict and you manage risk for those cases that you'll be wrong and since this, as you very accurately implied, happens often... you need to do very good risk management.... then you'll have the possibility to re-asses, re-evaluate and based on new data, make new prediction that you will trade!
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