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GOLD
Nov 23, 2009 at 04:45
1,298流覽
3 Replies
會員從Oct 20, 2009開始
36帖子
Nov 23, 2009 at 08:52
A good site (subescription with fee however) is http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/. very accurate analysis, but more for long-term position trading
Nov 23, 2009 at 10:17
hi hazar. shortterm trading of gold is hazardous due to several factors.
1) The spread is very high compared to most other currencies, You need to do much better than with other currencies just to break even
2) Gold tends to move further than other currencies in both directions. You will have to use lower leverage than with other currencies or risk blowing up your account or take losses that are too large to be re-gained.
3) Gold have a history of crashing wihtout any warning, i've seen crashes of 5+ percent inside the minute, and before gold starts to crash, the spread has usually gone up tenfold or something similar. That means you'll get trapped and take the entire blow. 5% is more than most ppl can handle as their stops and automated exiting stuff simply won't work or get them even worse prices than expected.
For the low-leverage long term trader, gold have some good properties
- usually moves A LOT. 100% up or 50% down within i year is not unheard of
- is in fact rather predictable if You read up on macroeconomics, especially fiscal economics. AND market psycology and risk aversion, which seems to be the major drivers. in fact gold price is pretty stable longterm, but the currencies are not.
I would guess the best place for gold in a portfolio is as a small component used to dampen volatility and to hedge risk that many other positions go down fast in value due to competitive devaluation.
If trading longterm you might want to look into futures trading instead of forex gold, as the futures might be cheaper after spread and fees, You have the NY mini futures which are not THAT expensive.
Dennis
(long gold, and been long for years)
1) The spread is very high compared to most other currencies, You need to do much better than with other currencies just to break even
2) Gold tends to move further than other currencies in both directions. You will have to use lower leverage than with other currencies or risk blowing up your account or take losses that are too large to be re-gained.
3) Gold have a history of crashing wihtout any warning, i've seen crashes of 5+ percent inside the minute, and before gold starts to crash, the spread has usually gone up tenfold or something similar. That means you'll get trapped and take the entire blow. 5% is more than most ppl can handle as their stops and automated exiting stuff simply won't work or get them even worse prices than expected.
For the low-leverage long term trader, gold have some good properties
- usually moves A LOT. 100% up or 50% down within i year is not unheard of
- is in fact rather predictable if You read up on macroeconomics, especially fiscal economics. AND market psycology and risk aversion, which seems to be the major drivers. in fact gold price is pretty stable longterm, but the currencies are not.
I would guess the best place for gold in a portfolio is as a small component used to dampen volatility and to hedge risk that many other positions go down fast in value due to competitive devaluation.
If trading longterm you might want to look into futures trading instead of forex gold, as the futures might be cheaper after spread and fees, You have the NY mini futures which are not THAT expensive.
Dennis
(long gold, and been long for years)
knowledge as well as smarts are needed to make money.
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