Market Manipulation?

Dove_Services posted:

Greggy posted:
Call me a sore loser, but I can't help but feel I was deliberately stopped out the night of the US Election. Nothing about these charts makes any sense to me, nothing about the Fibonacci retracements - nothing!!! Furthermore, as soon as they stopped me out I started closing my positions and then hey presto US$ starts to rise!!!

Firstly, the market is not interested in your demo account positions. The notion that the market is out to game your positions is unfortunately blame shifting. The golden rule is that the market is always right and so our job as trader is to understand how to position ourselves for the trade. Frankly the market doesn't care about your many lines and Fibonacci levels. The market will do what it wants to do.

Your comments of confusion would suggest to me that you have no idea what just happened. If you don't understand how the market works, how are you going to be consistently successful if that is your objective? As I said before, TA and trading are two different but integral components. Unfortunately you have a myopic view that TA is the solution. It is not because that are other elements involved.

This leads to my second point. What just happened with the market? When you trade you want to have an edge so that the outcome is more favourable to you than not. For weeks and leading to polling day, the market was generally of the view that Clinton will win. The odds quoted were from 75 % to 89 %. We can see that the currency market was pricing in such a result by the narrow volatility. As trader we always ask a basic question. Where does the risk and reward lie? if it turns out to be a Clinton win then the expectation would be limited reaction because the market has already priced in the anticipated result. This election is a binary event. It is either Clinton or Trump. However if it is a Trump win then the market will have a sharp reaction going the other side as it would have been caught on the wrong end. In other words, if you were to position for a trade, the risk and reward lies with a Trump win. This was an event setting up exactly like Brexit when the market was caught on the wrong side and so you would trade it like if you had traded Brexit.

Having established a possible trade scenario, the question was how do you enter the trade. An aggressive entry would be to limit in at the edges but that would be front running an event outcome that is not yet known. The less aggressive entry was a stop in and this is likely to be triggered when the initial returns started to indicate a Trump win and the key state to watch was Florida. There was a bit of volatility both ways when the Florida result see saw between who was leading but finally broke immediate key support when it appears that Trump was going to take Florida. That was the stop in scenario. The other question then becomes where do you exit your position. We know that the reaction would blow through a number of key levels but at which level would it be meaningful to take profits. Bill Mclaren always said that if you know your position is at risk when it gets to a certain level, you need to make a trade decision rather than do nothing.

There you have it. Plan your trade and trade your plan.