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The Martingale strategy i good?
Oct 01, 2013 at 08:32
i just run martingale for 2 week. plz comment..
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ketambatu/kambing/693359
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ketambatu/kambing/693359
會員從Jun 28, 2011開始
444帖子
Oct 01, 2013 at 15:28
@ Ketambatu
That isn't a martingale strategy that you are running, what your doing is called naked scalping. You have a bunch of open trades with no stop-loss. If your program isn't closing internally, that is, running a stop loss without placing it on the brokers computer, that is investment suicide. The returns look wonderful for months then a big spike and your account is gone. I used to see a lot of these back around 2008 but not so much lately. The small lot sizes are a help but it isn't a mathematical trading solution, you can't tell what would happen if the price jumped 25 pips an any direction. You are not controlling your trades. You have trades on at least 8 different currency pairs. Sometimes the news will effect lots of different pairs all at the same time.
Forex traders are not risk junkies no matter what people may think, we are risk managers. The better you manager your risk, the better you are as a trader. Keep working with your system for a year or so then decide if it is good to use with real money. 25% return in 3 weeks is really hot. When I see that, I ask, is the system getting that kind of return or is the account being over traded. At $5,000, it is almost always over traded.
@Thalantas writes,"I'm no pro in Martingale strategies but I think that running three martingales on one account could completely mess up every single strategy. What's your point of view on that Bob?"
There are hedging strategies that do use multiple currency pairs to limit risk as those pair are negatively correlated but generally speaking, running more than one program on an account is compromising the account. How do you ever know how much risk you are accepting. I have 4 different strategies running at the same time all on there own accounts. Its a good idea to diversify even within the same market, but rarely on the same account.
Bob
That isn't a martingale strategy that you are running, what your doing is called naked scalping. You have a bunch of open trades with no stop-loss. If your program isn't closing internally, that is, running a stop loss without placing it on the brokers computer, that is investment suicide. The returns look wonderful for months then a big spike and your account is gone. I used to see a lot of these back around 2008 but not so much lately. The small lot sizes are a help but it isn't a mathematical trading solution, you can't tell what would happen if the price jumped 25 pips an any direction. You are not controlling your trades. You have trades on at least 8 different currency pairs. Sometimes the news will effect lots of different pairs all at the same time.
Forex traders are not risk junkies no matter what people may think, we are risk managers. The better you manager your risk, the better you are as a trader. Keep working with your system for a year or so then decide if it is good to use with real money. 25% return in 3 weeks is really hot. When I see that, I ask, is the system getting that kind of return or is the account being over traded. At $5,000, it is almost always over traded.
@Thalantas writes,"I'm no pro in Martingale strategies but I think that running three martingales on one account could completely mess up every single strategy. What's your point of view on that Bob?"
There are hedging strategies that do use multiple currency pairs to limit risk as those pair are negatively correlated but generally speaking, running more than one program on an account is compromising the account. How do you ever know how much risk you are accepting. I have 4 different strategies running at the same time all on there own accounts. Its a good idea to diversify even within the same market, but rarely on the same account.
Bob
where research touches lives.
Oct 01, 2013 at 20:26
Lithert posted:
The Martingale strategy, is an effective technique to make trading in forex? According to you what type of account you should open by applying this strategy to be successful? And with how much money should I start? Someone using this strategy in a successful way? I have used this technique to the casino with $ 10 and once I came home with $ 110, even if it would work with forex would really not bad ;)
For the purpose of my post, I'll simply define a Martingale strategy as increasing one's lot size after a losing trade in an attempt to "make up" the losses.
In my opinion, this is a bad idea. The market does not "know" about your last trade. In other words, whether you won or lost your last trade, whether it was 0.5 lots or 2.5 lots, whether you made 20 pips or lost 100 pips, has no bearing on whether you will win or lose your next trade. Since this information is unrelated to the trade you are about to place, why are you using it as part of your decision making?
Calculating the lot size is about risk management. Managing risk means looking at real data, things that actually have an effect on the outcome of your trade. Choose things the market, and your account, do care about, like your account balance and the likelihood of your trade being successful.
Oct 02, 2013 at 00:04
ForexAssistant posted:
@ Ketambatu
That isn't a martingale strategy that you are running, what your doing is called naked scalping. You have a bunch of open trades with no stop-loss. If your program isn't closing internally, that is, running a stop loss without placing it on the brokers computer, that is investment suicide. The returns look wonderful for months then a big spike and your account is gone. I used to see a lot of these back around 2008 but not so much lately. The small lot sizes are a help but it isn't a mathematical trading solution, you can't tell what would happen if the price jumped 25 pips an any direction. You are not controlling your trades. You have trades on at least 8 different currency pairs. Sometimes the news will effect lots of different pairs all at the same time.
Forex traders are not risk junkies no matter what people may think, we are risk managers. The better you manager your risk, the better you are as a trader. Keep working with your system for a year or so then decide if it is good to use with real money. 25% return in 3 weeks is really hot. When I see that, I ask, is the system getting that kind of return or is the account being over traded. At $5,000, it is almost always over traded.
@Thalantas writes,"I'm no pro in Martingale strategies but I think that running three martingales on one account could completely mess up every single strategy. What's your point of view on that Bob?"
There are hedging strategies that do use multiple currency pairs to limit risk as those pair are negatively correlated but generally speaking, running more than one program on an account is compromising the account. How do you ever know how much risk you are accepting. I have 4 different strategies running at the same time all on there own accounts. Its a good idea to diversify even within the same market, but rarely on the same account.
Bob
Tq Bob for ur opinion. I just try how long my account will last. So far this account have survive for Fomc news.
會員從Jun 28, 2011開始
444帖子
Oct 02, 2013 at 05:23
Beren, I beg to differ sir, but the market does have a memory. Every point where the price reversed puts a resistance point at that price level until it has been crossed by a later price movement. The market is made up of traders and we all have memories, mine are fading fast because of my age but they are still there. What I know, the market knows.
Let me pose another scenario, instead of doubling the lot size after every loss, lets try doubling the range size. We can start with 10 pips and if we have a loss, we double the range to 20 pips. As the price continues to move in the wrong direction, the range keeps getting bigger, slowing down the number of trades until the price returns and closes the trade out for a large profit. But just to make it more interesting, lets say that we keep opening the trades, doubling the range sizes but we don't close out the trades until the last one closes for a profit, then all closes at the same time.
The last trade closes where the next to last (and the next draw in size) opened. If the next to last, closes at a zero profit/loss then the extra large profit isn't offsetting a loss so it all goes into your account. Since a martingale is designed to compensate losses then the next to last trade by definition is half of the draw-down. What you have over what you actually lose from the earlier trades ends up being the equivalent amount as if your first trade had closed for a profit every time. By the way, that works for a while but there is a flaw, however, what if you combined a growing but not doubling lot size with a growing but not doubling range size. Starting with 1 lot with a range size of 10 pips, if the price moved one range against us we would have a draw of $100. The next trade needs to be equivalent to $200. By opening the next trade for 1.42 lots with a take profit of 14.2 pips, you get the doubling but the first trade will close for a loss. That is the concept behind the Passive Income Generator. It is a martingale if you know how it is achieved.
Here is a demo that I run to help new traders see how the PI Generator functions.
Passive Income Generator
http:www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/passive-income-generator/685841
Notice how small the trade sizes remain, and as a secondary benefit, the growth in the range size slows down the number of trades until all trades are closed at the same time. Click on the history tab, you will see what I mean.
See what I call a martingale is quite a bit evolved from the traditional concept. If you begin with .01 lots, your trade size after 10 iterations is only around .10 or .11 lots and the accumulative value of ten open trades is about 0.55 to 0.60 lots.
And because all trades close at the same time, this generator will work with US brokers, (still better outside the US if you can use a broker outside the US).
Hope this helps. I will be gone for a couple of days but I did want to tell you all how nice it was getting to chatting with you. Intelligent conversation is so refreshing after all the mind numbing stupidity that we get from the world these days. My gratitude.
Bob
Let me pose another scenario, instead of doubling the lot size after every loss, lets try doubling the range size. We can start with 10 pips and if we have a loss, we double the range to 20 pips. As the price continues to move in the wrong direction, the range keeps getting bigger, slowing down the number of trades until the price returns and closes the trade out for a large profit. But just to make it more interesting, lets say that we keep opening the trades, doubling the range sizes but we don't close out the trades until the last one closes for a profit, then all closes at the same time.
The last trade closes where the next to last (and the next draw in size) opened. If the next to last, closes at a zero profit/loss then the extra large profit isn't offsetting a loss so it all goes into your account. Since a martingale is designed to compensate losses then the next to last trade by definition is half of the draw-down. What you have over what you actually lose from the earlier trades ends up being the equivalent amount as if your first trade had closed for a profit every time. By the way, that works for a while but there is a flaw, however, what if you combined a growing but not doubling lot size with a growing but not doubling range size. Starting with 1 lot with a range size of 10 pips, if the price moved one range against us we would have a draw of $100. The next trade needs to be equivalent to $200. By opening the next trade for 1.42 lots with a take profit of 14.2 pips, you get the doubling but the first trade will close for a loss. That is the concept behind the Passive Income Generator. It is a martingale if you know how it is achieved.
Here is a demo that I run to help new traders see how the PI Generator functions.
Passive Income Generator
http:www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/passive-income-generator/685841
Notice how small the trade sizes remain, and as a secondary benefit, the growth in the range size slows down the number of trades until all trades are closed at the same time. Click on the history tab, you will see what I mean.
See what I call a martingale is quite a bit evolved from the traditional concept. If you begin with .01 lots, your trade size after 10 iterations is only around .10 or .11 lots and the accumulative value of ten open trades is about 0.55 to 0.60 lots.
And because all trades close at the same time, this generator will work with US brokers, (still better outside the US if you can use a broker outside the US).
Hope this helps. I will be gone for a couple of days but I did want to tell you all how nice it was getting to chatting with you. Intelligent conversation is so refreshing after all the mind numbing stupidity that we get from the world these days. My gratitude.
Bob
where research touches lives.
forex_trader_8415
會員從Mar 09, 2010開始
2帖子
Oct 02, 2013 at 13:47
Your risk-reward ratio aint good. In my opinion you also trade too often. I would suggest you to better consider if the market conditions are good enough to enter the trade.
會員從Jun 28, 2011開始
444帖子
Oct 03, 2013 at 22:33
Martingale strategy is like a pet tiger? No. A tiger is like every other cat, they're worthless in every period of time, not just when they're hungry. But a martingale system is mathematical, I know young people have a tendency to be afraid of math but there really is nothing to be afraid of - once you master it, you are the master. Being afraid has kept people form trying to become the master and therefore never succeed. Fear is the real enemy.
Now that is not to say that a martingale can be abused, and not cause serious damage, it certainly can. But if a person is not foolish, and they hone their skill, there is no reason to be afraid of a paper tiger.
Bob
Now that is not to say that a martingale can be abused, and not cause serious damage, it certainly can. But if a person is not foolish, and they hone their skill, there is no reason to be afraid of a paper tiger.
Bob
where research touches lives.
Oct 06, 2013 at 15:03
pip2cash posted:
Hi All,
This is not a new topic for discussion. Martingale is very much depend on your money management not too much on trading logic.
This is a reference that making a consistent monthly return for more than 3 years:
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/pip2cash/2nd-showcase-account/23063
Regards,
SIM
It looks good.
Oct 06, 2013 at 17:49
TheFX4You posted:
Martingale is good only when it's limited. Like our companies EA
If you are using martingale without limits definitely- will get margin call sooner or later.
Any myfxbook live performance to prove ?!
A smooth sea never made a skillful sailor.
Oct 10, 2013 at 12:26
TheFX4You posted:
Martingale is good only when it's limited. Like our companies EA
If you are using martingale without limits definitely- will get margin call sooner or later.
What do you mean by limited. Each time using martingale you win the smallest amount. But if you increase the lot size every time you enter, you're losing more and more with every trade. So if you limit the lot size at 4 increases (for example), means that after lose one trade due to the lot size limit, only for covering losses you need to win 8 trades.
Explain me how do you avoid this!
會員從Jun 28, 2011開始
444帖子
Oct 10, 2013 at 18:36
Actually about 7 or 8 iterations is about right, we are still working to find the optimal parameters but here is a little information. http://forex-assistant.com/phoenix
There is an unlimited free trial on these programs to help new traders learn systemic trading. Wish I was finished with the book but in a nut shell, the martingale is a recovery system not a trading system. However, there comes a point where it gets too large to be practical, at that time you reset to the starting size of the trades but double the sizes until recovery has been made. Let's say you set the max iterations at 7 and your starting amount was .01 lots, then the 7th iteration would be for .64 lots. If you lose that trade you would have to make up 1.27 lots of losses. A secondary recover system where you double the size of the trades, would take over and you reduce the deficit amount by half of the winning amount. In practice that doesn't make very much money and I think that is what our friend Step_up has a problem with. However, there is a modified martingale system (the Phoenix) that pays for every trade taken, even the losses. That makes all the difference in the world.
I'll tell you what I will do for everyone here. If you send a request to Mary at [email protected] I will give you a free copy of my new book. I would only ask that you send me an evaluation of the book and if you find any typos that you make note of them so we can fix it before putting on Barnes & Noble. It will still take about 2 to 3 weeks before she can send it to you but I will tell her to be aware of my offer here. It will sell for $29.95 so if you want my research early and for a lot less money as 'free' most certainly is, then you have to do me the favor of writing a review.
And by the way when I say free trial of my programs, I mean free trial, you don't have to pay for it with a promise or the return of your money if not delighted as you see so often, no credit card is needed.
The martingale in its natural form does not work, this turns people sour on the mathematical concept and they never look for the modifications that do work. A good recovery system will help but not completely compensate for a poor trading system. The martingale is not a trading solution but can help to make a good trading system better. For 'Phoenix' it is also important to get the range size right and that is where we are at currently.
Look at http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/mt4-6040547/570955 where we put the Phoenix into the secondary recovery to finish testing. Unfortunately we recovered from the first test too fast to give us much information so we had to force a second reset so we can see how long it will take to recover from a martingale max-out. This is still early for Phoenix and while we are letting traders test it, it is not ready for the open market just yet.
The secondary recovery is simple and can be used on other programs like Pegasus, http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/pegasus/670938
This is not a martingale recovery program but it does use the secondary recovery as Phoenix does.
Hope this helps,
Bob
There is an unlimited free trial on these programs to help new traders learn systemic trading. Wish I was finished with the book but in a nut shell, the martingale is a recovery system not a trading system. However, there comes a point where it gets too large to be practical, at that time you reset to the starting size of the trades but double the sizes until recovery has been made. Let's say you set the max iterations at 7 and your starting amount was .01 lots, then the 7th iteration would be for .64 lots. If you lose that trade you would have to make up 1.27 lots of losses. A secondary recover system where you double the size of the trades, would take over and you reduce the deficit amount by half of the winning amount. In practice that doesn't make very much money and I think that is what our friend Step_up has a problem with. However, there is a modified martingale system (the Phoenix) that pays for every trade taken, even the losses. That makes all the difference in the world.
I'll tell you what I will do for everyone here. If you send a request to Mary at [email protected] I will give you a free copy of my new book. I would only ask that you send me an evaluation of the book and if you find any typos that you make note of them so we can fix it before putting on Barnes & Noble. It will still take about 2 to 3 weeks before she can send it to you but I will tell her to be aware of my offer here. It will sell for $29.95 so if you want my research early and for a lot less money as 'free' most certainly is, then you have to do me the favor of writing a review.
And by the way when I say free trial of my programs, I mean free trial, you don't have to pay for it with a promise or the return of your money if not delighted as you see so often, no credit card is needed.
The martingale in its natural form does not work, this turns people sour on the mathematical concept and they never look for the modifications that do work. A good recovery system will help but not completely compensate for a poor trading system. The martingale is not a trading solution but can help to make a good trading system better. For 'Phoenix' it is also important to get the range size right and that is where we are at currently.
Look at http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/mt4-6040547/570955 where we put the Phoenix into the secondary recovery to finish testing. Unfortunately we recovered from the first test too fast to give us much information so we had to force a second reset so we can see how long it will take to recover from a martingale max-out. This is still early for Phoenix and while we are letting traders test it, it is not ready for the open market just yet.
The secondary recovery is simple and can be used on other programs like Pegasus, http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ForexAssistant/pegasus/670938
This is not a martingale recovery program but it does use the secondary recovery as Phoenix does.
Hope this helps,
Bob
where research touches lives.
會員從Dec 15, 2010開始
784帖子
Oct 11, 2013 at 01:09
Those are not good charts at this time. One is locked out as private and the other one showed DD.
Click on my Name to see My Live Charts and Bio.
Oct 11, 2013 at 02:23
why you want to pay if you can get free... look to my demo... already run for 1 month.. with acceptable draw down..
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ketambatu/kambing/693359
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/ketambatu/kambing/693359
會員從Dec 15, 2010開始
784帖子
Oct 11, 2013 at 06:52
How do I down load this ea?
Click on my Name to see My Live Charts and Bio.
會員從Jun 28, 2011開始
444帖子
Oct 11, 2013 at 08:30
You can not evaluate a mathematical system by the rules for technical trading, they are not the same. DD is part of the system. We expect DD and use it for stability and profit. As to where to download it, I don't deal with sales so I will need to send you to thesafeinvestor.com to download Phoenix. Recommend you use a 45 pip range to begin with and a 7 iteration max for the martingale recovery. If you (Professor) was referring to katambing's system, it still isn't a martingale but he is into sales so he has to talk about his system were ever he can.
I am just a researcher, hate sales and anything to do with it but welcome any traders out there that realize that technical trading with an 85% across the board losing rate isn't the future of investing and reasonably, that there has to be a better way. Martingales are mathematical, if you are a technical trader and want to stay that way, martingales are not for you. But if you don't want to follow the herd and are willing to put in a little time, I can get you started with what I know. I don't care if you end up buying any of the programs that I created or not, every new bit of knowledge helps push us that much closer to replacing the investment managers with an even better investment robot.
The programs results that I shared with you here are my research programs, cutting edge stuff. If what you want is a safe program that pays well, that is a different subject than the martingale systems that we are talking about here. If this is the case for anyone reading this, write to me and I will turn you on to what I use here in the states or of a different one outside the US. The US has limits that the rest of the world doesn't have therefor the two different recommendations. Both are still systemic trading systems, using no technical indicators or price chasing.
Good trading all.
Bob
I am just a researcher, hate sales and anything to do with it but welcome any traders out there that realize that technical trading with an 85% across the board losing rate isn't the future of investing and reasonably, that there has to be a better way. Martingales are mathematical, if you are a technical trader and want to stay that way, martingales are not for you. But if you don't want to follow the herd and are willing to put in a little time, I can get you started with what I know. I don't care if you end up buying any of the programs that I created or not, every new bit of knowledge helps push us that much closer to replacing the investment managers with an even better investment robot.
The programs results that I shared with you here are my research programs, cutting edge stuff. If what you want is a safe program that pays well, that is a different subject than the martingale systems that we are talking about here. If this is the case for anyone reading this, write to me and I will turn you on to what I use here in the states or of a different one outside the US. The US has limits that the rest of the world doesn't have therefor the two different recommendations. Both are still systemic trading systems, using no technical indicators or price chasing.
Good trading all.
Bob
where research touches lives.
