EURSEK Exchange Rate

The euro area economy expanded in the first quarter after two consecutive declines as all big four economies exhibited better performance, boosting hopes of a sustained recovery this year. Gross domestic product grew by a faster-than-expected 0.3 percent sequentially following a 0.1 percent fall each in the fourth and third quarters of 2023, preliminary flash estimates from Eurostat showed.

The German economy avoided a recession in the first quarter on exports and investment in construction, preliminary data from Destatis showed on Tuesday. Gross domestic product grew a more-than-expected 0.2 percent sequentially in the first quarter, in contrast to the revised 0.5 percent decrease in the preceding three months.

Germany's consumer prices logged a steady pace of increase in April reflecting the stickiness of inflation despite the disinflationary pressure gaining strength over recent months. The consumer price index posted an annual growth of 2.2 percent, which was the same rate as seen in March and weaker than economists' forecast of 2.3 percent. The current 2.2 percent inflation was the lowest since 2021.

Euro area economic sentiment deteriorated further in April largely reflecting the difficulties in the industrial sector, survey data revealed on Monday. The economic confidence index dropped to 95.6 in April from 96.2 in the previous month, the European Commission said. The economic sentiment index deteriorated notably in industry, and services, retail trade and construction experienced moder

EUR/USD has dropped to 1.0800, influenced by the Fed and a cautious market. Today's focus is on the eurozone's January CPI release, expecting a dip to 2.7% YoY in the headline rate and 3.2% YoY in the core rate – the lowest since March 2022.

The EUR/USD pair has bounced back from its recent low of 1.0450, but it could struggle to find enough buyers as it approaches the 1.0530/1.0550 range. The US dollar remains an unattractive sell, and there is currently no compelling narrative in the eurozone to counter the exceptionalism story in the United States.

EUR: Becalmed the EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting tight trading ranges, influenced significantly by US Treasury yields and USD/CNH movements in the relatively quiet summer market conditions. The short-term range appears to be fluctuating between 1.0850 and 1.0930, and a substantial breakout might not occur until the release of flash PMI readings for August, expected today.

Events in Russia have had little discernible impact on the FX market so far. Instead, the hot topic of high inflation and what policymakers are prepared to do about it remains the market's priority. This will be at the top of the agenda at this week's ECB's annual symposium in Sintra. Expect another mixed week in FX markets and possible BoJ intervention.