USD/JPY collapses to a 6-month low: safe-haven assets in demand

USD/JPY is at a six-month low near 145.57 on Friday after posting a 2% gain in the previous session.

Key factors driving the USD/JPY movement

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping duties have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. This week, Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports, set to take effect on 5 April. Around 60 countries are expected to face higher duties, including China (54% tariff), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), India (27%) and Vietnam (46%).

The market reacted quickly and powerfully. A new wave of tariff measures signals potentially uncontained inflation and sluggish global GDP growth. At the same time, demand increased across the full spectrum of safe-haven assets, including the yen.

Statistics from Japan showed that personal spending fell less than expected in February, suggesting some resilience in the economy.

The 2025 baseline scenario suggests that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this year, although uncertainty surrounding global trade and domestic economic conditions casts a shadow over the outlook.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has breached the 147.60 level to the downside and continues to form a wave towards the 144.76 level. The target is local. After reaching it, a correction to 147.60 is possible. Once the correction is complete, a further wave down to 144.12 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 147.60. Following the downside breakout, the development of the third wave is underway. The target is at 144.76. Once this is reached, a corrective wave is likely. The first correction target is at 146.06. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and heading directly towards 20.

Conclusion

With trade war fears escalating and demand for safe-haven assets surging, USD/JPY remains under pressure. Technical indicators suggest further downside, though a short-term correction is possible. Traders should monitor 144.76 as the next key support, with BoJ policy signals and global trade developments likely to determine the pair’s next significant move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author's particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

read more
ATFX Market Outlook 16th May 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 16th May 2025

U.S. retail sales increased at a much weaker rate in April as the pre-tariff scramble to purchase automobiles exhausted itself and shoppers trimmed other spending in the face of growing economic uncertainty. In addition, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated the Fed needs to reconsider its existing employment and inflation paradigm within monetary policy.
ATFX | 2 일 전
Moneta Markets Daily Market Update: May 12, 2025

Moneta Markets Daily Market Update: May 12, 2025

Global financial markets on May 12, 2025, are buoyed by optimism surrounding a US-China trade deal, though uncertainties over tariff reductions temper gains. Gold drops to a one-week low near $3,253, while EUR/USD holds above 1.1200, awaiting trade deal details.
Moneta Markets | 6 일 전
Tariffs Ignite Safe-Haven Rally

Tariffs Ignite Safe-Haven Rally

Global financial markets on May 6, 2025, are stabilizing as investors await the Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting, with major currency pairs trading in tight ranges. Gold and silver rally on safe-haven demand driven by Trump’s new tariff threats and Middle East tensions, while the US Dollar holds steady despite recent weakness.
Moneta Markets | 12 일 전
ATFX Market Outlook 6th May 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 6th May 2025

U.S. ISM Services PMI for April indicated accelerated expansion. However, the input prices index surged to its highest level in over two years, highlighting rising inflationary pressures likely stemming from tariffs. U.S. Treasury yields inched higher, while the dollar weakened against major currencies like the euro and yen as markets assessed the ongoing uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s
ATFX | 12 일 전