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Use of martingale strategy

Adrian Matusiak (adrian8891)
Oct 25 2010 at 12:05
게시물696

pearlo posted:
    
fortenova posted:
    
pearlo posted:
    https://www.bkforexadvisors.com/video/matringale-like-a-marketmaker/

i applied this martingale strategy but made some adjustments.

and the results are good so far.

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pearlo/fund-e/30220

hehe... same - system deleted by owner

What happened to the good results - account deleted.

got greedy and made some more adjustments that turned out to be very bad. i uploaded again the account but used a custom date now, start anew again. lesson learned, dont be greedy. :-)

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/pearlo/fund-b/33509
PAMM MANAGER // Professional Fund Manager
WorldTrader
Nov 10 2010 at 00:01
게시물54
Martinale is Stractegy is a knive of two edges, i can cut ur enemy, and cut u as well, meaning it can make u a huge profit, but same time can crash u out, i better not try that
DoubleTrap (ForexSeeker)
Nov 10 2010 at 02:28
게시물814
You just need to learn and master your skill of offensive and defensive.

Beside there is always a Demo practice ground for you to face your most fear.

Have you meet my 'Kill Bill 5' yet ? He is a killer to kill or to be kill.

So you just has to limit how much pocket money he can use every month.

If lucky , he kill a lot and cover his next month pocket money.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What manual strategy you use for Slow But Steady ? Is are real 100k account or cents account of 1k ?
Information is Gold when come to organised.
WorldTrader
Nov 10 2010 at 05:15
게시물54
ForexSeeker posted:
    You just need to learn and master your skill of offensive and defensive.

Beside there is always a Demo practice ground for you to face your most fear.

Have you meet my 'Kill Bill 5' yet ? He is a killer to kill or to be kill.

So you just has to limit how much pocket money he can use every month.

If lucky , he kill a lot and cover his next month pocket money.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What manual strategy you use for Slow But Steady ? Is are real 100k account or cents account of 1k ?
That is my first deal of 100k, i must confess it is too good trading big bucks, i was suprise when the client deposited that amount, althoug, it took 4 weeks b4 i convience him to put such an amount, i used costumized indicators, and 90 percent scalping too, but i wait long tosee the direction of the market b4 i place trades, that is the slow and steady there, no rush
DoubleTrap (ForexSeeker)
Nov 10 2010 at 13:22
게시물814
Hmmm.. let see. 100k, $50 per pip. 1k == $0.50 per pip

So your tactic also work on 1k Account.

Normally people define slow and steady is 100k Acc earn about 5% per month.
But you 1 month already earn 50% more. Should be call FAST and Steady already.

You interested to share your manual tactic here ?

You can also PM me if interested to make your manual tactic become Automatic.



Information is Gold when come to organised.
Michael (ForexManagerPro)
Nov 11 2010 at 00:45
게시물2
this features are needed to trade martingale, d'lambert, fibonacchi succesfull

Order Management:
Adaptive Pipstep (25/50)
Pip Step Factor Calculation
Maximum Orders
Maximum Slippage
Time Filter
Reverse and No Reverse Order Execution

Entry Management:
Order Entry signals with multi time frame indicators
Order Entry signals without multi time frame indicators - highest risk level, pure Price Action

News Management:
Adaptive Lot Size Calculation on Low, Medium high impact news
Multi Timeframe Lot Size on News Level Impact
Minutes Before and After Calculation (how long will be new lot size calculation active)

Basket Management:
Minimum Recovery of Floating Basket (how much the floating must recover to open orders again)
Maximum Floating Basket (if reached no new orders)
Adaptive Lot Size Calculation based on 3 Percentage Levels of Floating Basket

Money Management:
Lot Size Calculation Based on Equity or Fixed (mm=true)
Max Lot Size (what your broker accept)
Minimum Lot Size (what your broker accept)
Lot Size Factor Calulation
Soft-Martingale

Loss Management:
Emergency Close
Max Basket Loss
Max Pair Loss

Profit Management:
Equity Profit (if reached stop trading complete)
Advanced Trailing Profit
Adaptive Secure Profit
Fixed Take Profit or ECN style
WorldTrader
Nov 11 2010 at 02:16
게시물54

WorldTrader posted:
    
ForexSeeker posted:
    You just need to learn and master your skill of offensive and defensive.

Beside there is always a Demo practice ground for you to face your most fear.

Have you meet my 'Kill Bill 5' yet ? He is a killer to kill or to be kill.

So you just has to limit how much pocket money he can use every month.

If lucky , he kill a lot and cover his next month pocket money.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What manual strategy you use for Slow But Steady ? Is are real 100k account or cents account of 1k ?
That is my first deal of 100k, i must confess it is too good trading big bucks, i was suprise when the client deposited that amount, althoug, it took 4 weeks b4 i convience him to put such an amount, i used costumized indicators, and 90 percent scalping too, but i wait long tosee the direction of the market b4 i place trades, that is the slow and steady there, no rush

Would hv love to share, but tha stractegy is all what i hv worked and discovered in the last 3years, so the stractegy is priceless
DoubleTrap (ForexSeeker)
Nov 11 2010 at 11:54
게시물814
Factor of Martingale blow up can be :
1. Trade too frequent without indicator ( adding indicator will reduce Risk also reduce Gain)
2. Market spike and suddenly change trend with no break ( If trend strike more than 300 pips it blow even with 12 level )
3. The root of problems is Martingale where it will blow up when market go crazy spike Storm Trend.

Normally the precaution of this Risk is by :
1. Protect level to break even : Where let said after reach 6 level, it will close all trade when Floating == 0.
2. Mass Hedge to the correct trend : Probably already no money to Hedge or after Hedge the trend did not continue.
3. Stop EA and manual monitoring and trade.
4. Increase capital to wait market come back : But sometimes market never come back.
5. Use a good First go in indicator : But there still a chance where first indicator fail (Market News, sudden change of trend in storm speed)

I have try to implement Step 4 + Step 5 : Using 10k Acc, add in Rebel Martin Logic, Max Risk 12 level martingale.
BackTest using 30 Minute Chart :
2000 : earn 2806
2001 : earn 2577
2002 : earn 2587
2003 : earn 2896
2004 : earn 2898
2005 : earn 2794
2006 : earn 2358
2007 : earn 1986
2008 : earn 2095
2009 : earn 3092
2010 Nov 11 : earn 2549

Overall Average 2.6% ROI per month. on back test.
So on Demo one month should be earn 260 per month using 10k.

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>
This is another back test that Turn Off Friday with 10k Acc, which give average return $208 per month.
Actual demo forward test not yet conducted yet.

So how much return per month is good for 10k Acc. If put in bank how much fixed deposit interest can get?



첨부 파일:

Information is Gold when come to organised.
Tom
ttfx
Nov 12 2010 at 18:50
게시물23
The whole idea doesn't make any sense. There's always some trading strategy (trading system) inside and if this strategy is not viable (won't make money in the long run without martingale), then the whole model is doomed to fail, regardless of when/how much to withdraw etc.

Let's take a true random system with equal stop and target; its equity curve will go down. That's because of the transaction costs involved in any single trade. Use martingale and the curve will grow as long as consecutive loss count doesn't exceed the margin. You can attempt to withdraw any portions in any time intervals and set them aside to be available for account refunding as it goes busted from time to time. But all these efforts will prove worthless - in the (very) long run, you will lose exactly the same % of capital as if you would run the system without martingale. It's a closed loop of money in a not-so-zero (cause of transaction costs) sum game.

If the underlying strategy is great, it doesn't need martingale. If it's poor - then the martingaling is only shifting the inevitable long-term loss into future. Thinking in a way 'I'll withdraw on regular basis and THEREFORE it is allowed to bust from time to time' is totally flawed imho, it's a gamble hoping for luck. Seeing the profits grow wonderfully over some periods of time is a loser's illusion only; a merely psychological issue. No offense to anyone! But do the math and settle for a strategy with a profitable core if you want to make money in this game.

edit: I'm talking about raw 100% mechanical martingale with poor system beneath, not about the sophisticated variants which have their limits and special market-based rules (some systems by Nanningbob @ FF for example) - they can be a great complement to a good system imo.
WorldTrader
Nov 13 2010 at 06:01
게시물54
Mayank Saini (mayanksaini11)
Nov 16 2010 at 14:45
게시물19
hmm, underlying system is important.
Everything belongs to God!
Tom
ttfx
Nov 16 2010 at 15:14
게시물23
mayanksaini11 posted:
    hmm, underlying system is important.

it's not only important - it's the only thing that matters. Any long-term losing trading system with martingale will behave the same way in the long run: the sum of account blowouts will always exceed the sum of money withdrawn from its previous profits. And if the system is profitable as-is, its gains can be maximized with a lot of safe money management strategies. In fact, ANY money management approach (whether it's martingale or not) will NOT save any system with negative expectancy; I recommend Van K. Tharp's books to anyone who would like to get a clear insight in this.

But if my trade goes wrong and I decide to take some action (for example google Nanningbob's Recovery) in sync with market conditions and DON'T OVERSHOOT MY GLOBAL RISK CRITERIA, then it can be an another story. But that's no martingale anymore - it's a part of the TRADING system.
Karlo
Karlo
Nov 27 2010 at 16:56
게시물5
Using martingale without other techniques to make it survivable is a losing method. It can last a few months or years but, the chances of it lasting more than 5 years is less than 5%.

Trading since 1988.
Tom
ttfx
Nov 27 2010 at 17:28
게시물23
Hi Karlo,

seeing this is your 1st post here, welcome :-). Wow, since '88 ? A lot of respect to you.


    Using martingale without other techniques to make it survivable is a losing method.

Yep. A Big Truth. But there's so many people persisting in blindness.


    It can last a few months or years but, the chances of it lasting more than 5 years is less than 5%.
This depends on initial trade size. It can last more than that and/or have a higher probability of not blowing the entire account. But would I initially trade one microlot with a million dollar account if I knew it is prone to kill it? Even if the chance would be 1% in 100 years; that event might come just tomorrow. Am I willing to watch huge drawdowns shooting for a few bucks?

No thanks. The profits aimed for never outweigh the risk with martingale. And due to unpredictable exponential drawdown, it makes position sizing (compounding) difficult. We never know if this tiny stupid trade we've entered is a killer one or not.


Karlo
Karlo
Nov 27 2010 at 19:05
게시물5
If a trader could stay with tiny tiny trade sizes in relation to NAV, he could survive but, he wont be able to do that. There is too much temptation. That is why I stretched the survivors to 5%, because there are some rare traders that can stay so small in trade size. I use a version of marty myself but, with a lot of modification.
Tom
ttfx
Nov 27 2010 at 19:48
게시물23
Karlo posted:
    If a trader could stay with tiny tiny trade sizes in relation to NAV, he could survive but, he wont be able to do that. There is too much temptation..
Wise words.. if there were only the math (and no psychological) issues involved in practical trading, it would be a bit different animal ;-).. May I have a question? What markets do you trade/were trading?
Karlo
Karlo
Nov 28 2010 at 08:12
게시물5

ttfx posted:
    
Karlo posted:
    If a trader could stay with tiny tiny trade sizes in relation to NAV, he could survive but, he wont be able to do that. There is too much temptation..
Wise words.. if there were only the math (and no psychological) issues involved in practical trading, it would be a bit different animal ;-).. May I have a question? What markets do you trade/were trading?

Currently Shorting USD/CHF, Shorting EUR/AUD, & Shorting EUR/USD. Trading very small size relative to NAV. Being very cautious on the USD/CHF and EUR/AUD Shorts since they have more potential to move up fast at this point.

Thanks for the Welcome.
Youngmogul86
Nov 30 2010 at 08:37
게시물6
Hey Karlo,

Welcome to the forum... Im new here as well, just a week or two since I found this great tool... I have a question thats off subject, but it seems odd to me... You are short the eurusd, AND short the usdchf? why not just short eur/chf? Saves the capital from being tied up in two seperate trades that are both going to be affected in the same direction.. Secondly.. You have traded forex since 88?! HOLY SHIZA! Thats amazing.. because everyone I have ever spoke with that traded in the 80's and 90's... well, 1. They are loaded... 2. Have absolutly NO time to search the internet to discuss martingale strategies...

The truth is.. If the 1R(amount risked)<=1 Then its a bad trade PERIOD.... No matter how many times you allow yourself to 'double down'... No form of bet manipulation is or ever has proven profitable EVER over the long term. What has proven profitable? ACCURACY, EDUCATION, DISCIPLINE, PATIENCE. I'l be the first to tell you about statistics if you would like to know more.. I've made myself a bundle, lost that bundle... and now pay my bills with forex money... i'm 24. Don't fall victim to people who try to sell you on a betting strategy when trading.. Thats the difference between a pro and an amateur... An ameteur has no consistency in his risk base... He judges his lot size by how 'sure' he is of the move... And aims for different amounts of pips based on lack of emotional control... He closes the trade once it is half the way to the 'goal' (if he has one) for fear of the line turning around.... A pro... Risks the same or close to the same thing EVERY trade... Uses position sizing as a TOOL manipulating the risked % of NAV to be achieved at different distances from entry... And if the trade turns around.. It doesnt matter... He will be accurate 55%+ of the time... And is satisfied with 110 winning trades and 90 losing trades a month.

ghanima
Dec 13 2010 at 13:32
게시물9
you can't make a rule of how a good trader behaves

anyway, martingale is crazy, I keep at distance. There are so many other tools, why risk losin my mind
Paul Ng (paulng)
Dec 22 2010 at 12:07
게시물43
I've learned a lot from you guys, and have been experimenting with multisize concepts. It seems to me that there are 2 opposing categories to multisize a position. One expects price to breakout from a range, and the other expects a retracement after the trend or impulse.

I've the theoretical results of both prototypes on my blog, where there are no losing months in all the 10 years of EURUSD data. You can say that there are no losing trades if we regard the whole series of steps as one bundle position. The position begins with a small size of 0.1 lot, but requires an enormous capital of $100,000, to standby for a series of wrong steps. The more steps you want to be able to withstand, the more capital you require for the ever increasing size of the position. Furthermore, due to spreads, slippage and/or commissions, it requires more than just doubling in size. I don't have such money to test live, and even if I have the money, I don't have the courage to risk such a huge amount for the 'steady' small profits. The reward-to-risk does not appeal to my personality. With that large amount of money, I will prefer to try other concepts and fail 10x $10,000, than to worry constantly that the next trade might just be the one to exceed what my account balance can handle.

Let's see if I can attach the pictures.

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>

<a href='' target='_blank'><img src=''/></a>

If the pictures fail to appear, you can go to my blog, click on the picture to enlarge and view it. https://paul-autotrade.blogspot.com/

The concept of exiting at breakeven after triggering a certain number of 'steps' is very interesting, and may be very useful in modifying the 2 prototypes. I have a question for folks who are good at programming EA: how do I see the overall P&L for my positions?

Do I need to OrderSelect one by one and sum up the OrderProfit()? Or is there an easier way to see the P&L so that I can close all the positions?

Cheers,
Paul

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"The first rule of forecasting should be that the unforeseen keeps making the future unforeseeable." - David McCasland (January 5,2012, Our Daily Bread)
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