Oil Rises, Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Builds | 27th June, 2025

Oil Climbs, Dollar Slips

On June 27, 2025, global markets lean into risk as crude oil prices climb and the US Dollar struggles amid persistent concerns over Federal Reserve independence. WTI crude oil rises to near $75.00 after a larger-than-expected draw in US inventories signals improved demand. The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) extends its winning streak, supported by risk-on flows and fading dollar strength. EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1700, holding multi-year highs as USD softness continues. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) recovers from early CPI-driven losses, and China’s PBOC maintains USD/CNY stability through a slightly stronger fix, reinforcing policy control in a volatile FX environment.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude oil trades near $75.00, extending gains as US crude inventories fall more than expected, reflecting stronger demand. The upbeat inventory report, combined with a broadly weaker US Dollar and improving risk sentiment, supports bullish momentum in the oil market. Traders are also monitoring China’s economic signals and global central bank policies for further direction.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions remain subdued, and China’s managed policy stance adds a layer of stability, encouraging demand-driven oil buying.

US Economic Data: Weekly crude inventory data shows a significant drawdown, boosting confidence in demand recovery. Markets await PCE inflation for macro follow-through.

FOMC Outcome: Ongoing concerns over Fed autonomy and potential policy paralysis contribute to USD weakness, indirectly supporting oil.

Trade Policy: No new disruptions in global trade flows; oil benefits from the steady reopening narrative and stronger demand outlook.

Monetary Policy: Dollar softness and stable rate expectations globally increase appetite for commodities priced in USD, including crude.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish continuation above short-term resistance.

Resistance: $75.40, then $76.25 and $77.80.

Support: $73.80, then $72.90 and $71.60.

Forecast: A break above $75.40 could trigger further upside toward $77+. A downside reversal below $73.80 would shift bias back to neutral.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish; oil traders are increasingly confident in demand-driven gains as inventory trends improve.

Catalysts: US PCE inflation, China PMI next week, OPEC+ commentary, and global risk sentiment.

Australian Dollar Forecast (AUD/USD)

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD trades near 0.6880, extending its winning streak as global risk appetite improves and the US Dollar remains under pressure amid growing political concerns over the Fed’s independence. The Australian Dollar is further supported by firm commodity demand and China’s stable economic messaging, reinforcing the region’s macro resilience.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Reduced geopolitical tensions and China’s managed FX approach support AUD as risk sentiment improves across the Asia-Pacific region.

US Economic Data: Ongoing USD weakness is fueled by weak US macro data and heightened political noise. Traders eye PCE inflation for direction.

FOMC Outcome: Doubts over the Fed’s autonomy continue to weigh on the dollar, creating relative strength for AUD despite a steady RBA stance.

Trade Policy: With no major disruptions, Australia benefits from stable commodity exports and stronger Chinese demand signals.

Monetary Policy: The RBA remains on hold, but narrowing yield differentials with the Fed support AUD/USD upside in the near term.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish short-term; grinding higher above recent resistance.

Resistance: 0.6900, then 0.6950 and 0.7000.

Support: 0.6830, then 0.6785 and 0.6750.

Forecast: AUD/USD may target 0.6950 if risk sentiment persists. A move below 0.6830 would suggest profit-taking or short-term pullback.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish; AUD remains well bid across FX markets as a high-beta currency favored in risk-on environments.

Catalysts: US PCE inflation, China industrial output, RBA guidance, and shifts in global equity flows.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD trades near 1.1700, maintaining its position at four-year highs as the US Dollar remains under pressure. The euro continues to benefit from a stable European macro backdrop, strong technical momentum, and growing divergence between the ECB and a politically pressured Federal Reserve.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Relative calm in global markets favors the euro, especially as investors turn away from USD amid political uncertainty in the US.

US Economic Data: Weakening data and Fed credibility concerns have weighed heavily on the greenback, allowing EUR/USD to surge.

FOMC Outcome: No change in rate guidance, but political attacks on the Fed’s autonomy fuel speculation of delayed action, hurting the USD.

Trade Policy: Eurozone remains relatively insulated from near-term trade disruptions; policy consistency adds confidence in EUR holdings.

Monetary Policy: The ECB’s neutral stance contrasts with the Fed’s instability, giving the euro a relative edge.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Strong bullish breakout continues.

Resistance: 1.1725, then 1.1750 and 1.1800.

Support: 1.1650, then 1.1610 and 1.1570.

Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1750+ if USD weakness persists. A break below 1.1650 could stall momentum.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish; EUR/USD flows are firm as traders shift exposure out of USD and into euro assets.

Catalysts: US PCE inflation, ECB commentary, Eurozone inflation data, and global rate divergence sentiment.

Japanese Yen Forecast (USD/JPY)

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY trades around 157.30, recovering intraday losses after a brief dip triggered by Tokyo’s softer-than-expected CPI data. Despite initial weakness, the yen finds support amid broad US Dollar softness and risk-on flows in the Asia-Pacific region. Traders are weighing inflation trends in Japan versus the ongoing debate over Fed independence in the US.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: No fresh threats in Asia or the Middle East keep yen volatility low, while global investors shift to risk-sensitive pairs.

US Economic Data: Weaker macro signals and concern over Fed credibility have driven broad USD selling, indirectly aiding JPY.

FOMC Outcome: Market doubts over Fed control weaken the dollar, but the BoJ’s reluctance to tighten policy limits JPY’s relative strength.

Trade Policy: No notable developments affecting Japan; focus remains on broader macro dynamics and yield spreads.

Monetary Policy: Japan’s soft inflation print suggests BoJ will maintain an ultra-loose stance, which could cap yen strength unless global yields decline.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Sideways-to-mildly bearish after rejecting highs near 158.00.

Resistance: 157.80, then 158.25 and 158.90.

Support: 156.60, then 156.10 and 155.25.

Forecast: USD/JPY could retreat toward 156.10 if USD softness continues. A bounce above 157.80 may test 158.25 resistance again.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Mixed; USD/JPY sentiment is cautious amid crosscurrents in global bond yields and diverging central bank narratives.

Catalysts: Japanese CPI revisions, US inflation expectations, BoJ and Fed commentary, and risk tone shifts.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1627 on June 27, 2025, slightly higher than the previous fix of 7.1620. The marginal adjustment reflects the central bank’s intent to maintain currency stability amid global volatility and a weakening US Dollar. Despite external shocks, the yuan remains relatively steady, supported by policy-driven guidance and improving sentiment around China’s economy.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Stability in the Middle East and controlled financial conditions in China help reduce pressure on the yuan.

US Economic Data: Weakening USD and Fed credibility concerns continue to dominate, pushing capital flows toward more stable FX anchors like CNY.

FOMC Outcome: Uncertainty surrounding US rate policy strengthens China’s case for tighter FX control, limiting CNY volatility.

Trade Policy: No new tariffs or trade shocks; the yuan benefits from steady flows and policy-managed resilience in a complex global environment.

Monetary Policy: The PBOC remains cautious with stimulus and continues to guide USD/CNY through daily fixings, keeping the exchange rate within a narrow, manageable band.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Range-bound with mild downward pressure on USD/CNY.

Resistance: 7.1700, then 7.1825 and 7.2000.

Support: 7.1550, then 7.1425 and 7.1300.

Forecast: The yuan is expected to trade within 7.15–7.17 in the near term as the PBOC prioritizes currency stability. Any broad USD selloff could test support near 7.1425.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-cautiously bullish on CNY; market views the PBOC fix as a steady hand in volatile global conditions.

Catalysts: China’s PMI data, US PCE inflation, capital flow reports, and further PBOC commentary on FX intervention.

Wrap-up

As June 27 unfolds, the market narrative remains focused on risk appetite and evolving expectations around Fed credibility. Crude oil leads with gains near $75.00, while the US Dollar remains on the defensive. Commodity and high-beta currencies like the Aussie and euro stay elevated, and the yen steadies as safe-haven interest resurfaces. China’s controlled fix of the yuan further stabilizes sentiment in Asia. Traders now look ahead to US PCE inflation data and Fed speak for clarity on policy direction amid ongoing political uncertainty.

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