ATFX Market Outlook 5th November 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 5th November 2025

Market Awaits U.S. Employment Data – Will Tonight’s ADP Report Break the Calm?

Market Highlight

The U.S. Senate failed to pass a temporary funding bill once again on Tuesday, setting the stage for a government shutdown that will soon surpass the 35-day record from late 2018 to early 2019. Wall Street closed sharply lower as major banks warned of potential corrections, reflecting growing concerns over stretched valuations. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their biggest single-day declines since October 10, with the Dow down 0.53%, the S&P 500 losing 1.17%, and the Nasdaq falling 2.04%. The U.S. Dollar Index extended gains, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time since early August, ending the day at 100.17, as internal Fed divisions fueled doubts about another rate cut this year.

Gold prices dropped more than 1%, with the dollar hitting a three-month high as traders awaited fresh U.S. economic data for clues on the Fed’s policy path. Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,932.04/oz. Crude oil also settled lower, pressured by a stronger dollar and demand concerns, while OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes in the first quarter of 2026 signaled potential worries over excess supply.

Key Outlook

All eyes are now on the U.S. ADP Employment Report due tonight. Markets expect 25,000 new jobs for October, which—if confirmed—would end two straight months of negative growth. Although modest, such a rebound could alleviate concerns over continued labor market weakness. With the official Nonfarm Payrolls report delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, the ADP data takes center stage as a key indicator of U.S. employment health. Any surprise outcome may trigger sharp volatility across FX, equities, and gold markets.

Key Data and Events Today

15:00 EU GERMANY Factory Orders MoM SEP ** 

16:55 EU GERMANY Services & Composite PMI Final OCT ** 

17:00 EU Services & Composite PMI Final OCT ** 

17:30 GB Services & Composite PMI Final OCT **  

18:00 EU PPI MoM SEP **  

21:15 US ADP Employment Change OCT *** 

22:45 US Services & Composite PMI Final OCT ** 

23:00 US ISM Services PMI OCT **

23:30 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change **

Tomorrow: 

08:30 JP Services & Composite PMI Final OCT **  

15:00 EU GERMANY Industrial Production MoM SEP ** 

18:00 EU Retail Sales MoM SEP ** 

20:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Meeting Minutes *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1518/1.1540

· Support: 1.1445/1.1423

The Euro extended losses to near 1.1480 as the U.S. Dollar hit a three-month high around 100.20. Market focus remains on the upcoming ADP and ISM data, while reduced bets on a Fed rate cut weigh on sentiment. Technically, the pair stays in a clear downtrend, with resistance near 1.1518 and potential downside toward 1.1445 if weakness persists.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3110/1.3136

· Support: 1.2971/1.2938

The Pound slumped to a seven-month low near 1.3047, pressured by a stronger U.S. Dollar and deepening fiscal worries in the U.K. Ahead of the BoE decision, Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ remarks about “hard choices” in the upcoming budget added to policy uncertainty. Technically, GBP/USD remains below the descending trendline near 1.3110, with room to test 1.2971 if bearish momentum continues.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 153.88/154.48

· Support: 152.53/151.92

The pair edged lower toward 153.60 as safe-haven demand for the Yen increased amid the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. Speculation about possible MoF intervention supported the JPY, although uncertainty over the next BoJ rate hike capped the upside. Technically, support sits near 152.53, while resistance at 153.88 must be cleared for a sustained rebound.

US Crude Oil Futures (DEC)

· Resistance: 61.03/61.82

· Support: 59.28/58.49

WTI crude slipped to $60.35/bbl, pressured by a stronger U.S. Dollar and persistent concerns over global demand. Although OPEC+ plans to pause output hikes in Q1 2026, soft manufacturing data and broader risk-off sentiment continued to limit recovery. Technically, support lies near $59.28, while a rebound toward $61.03 remains possible if buying interest emerges.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3966/3985

· Support: 3910/3886

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 47.94/48.40

-Support: 46.44/45.97

Spot gold dropped nearly 2% to around $3,940/oz, weighed by a stronger U.S. Dollar and diminished Fed rate-cut expectations. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown further fueled demand for the Greenback as a safe haven, keeping gold under pressure. Technically, resistance lies near $3,966, with downside risk toward $3,910 if bearish momentum persists.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 47431/47741

· Support: 46747/46441

The Dow futures slipped 0.53% to around 47,085, weighed by losses in banking and healthcare sectors. Caution grew after major bank CEOs warned of overvalued markets, sparking risk aversion, while the record-long U.S. government shutdown further dampened sentiment. Technically, support is located near 46,747, with resistance at 47,431 limiting the upside.

NAS100

· Resistance: 25713/25950

· Support: 25193/24960

The NAS100 slumped 2.04%, marking its sharpest decline since October 10, as tech and AI-related stocks led the sell-off. Renewed valuation concerns and fading risk appetite drove broad market weakness. Technically, support sits near 25,193, while resistance caps near 25,713, hinting at continued bearish momentum.

BTC        

· Resistance: 102035/103530

· Support: 95574/94055

Bitcoin slipped below US$100,000 for the first time since June, falling over 7% as risk aversion swept global markets. ETF outflows and a fading risk appetite pressured crypto markets, while the October liquidation event still weighs on sentiment. Technically, BTC now tests key support near US$95,574, with a break lower likely to expose the US$88,000–90,000 zone.

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