Vietnam and Global Powers: EBC Breaks Down the $10 Billion France Deal vs. U.S. Partnerships

Some nations move like tides, slow and predictable, with changes that can be seen coming from afar. Others, like Vietnam today, shift like tectonic plates—quiet forces beneath the surface that reshape entire landscapes without warning. These seismic movements quietly realign the foundations of global trade and investment, creating new opportunities for those who can anticipate them. 

Vietnam is one such tectonic force, gradually but powerfully altering the economic map of Southeast Asia and beyond. At EBC, we watch these undercurrents closely because understanding them early is key to navigating the future investment landscape with confidence. 

Vietnam’s Strategic Shift Beyond the ‘China Alternative’ 

Vietnam’s recent $10 billion pact with France signals much more than just a commercial agreement. Signed during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Hanoi, this deal represents a strategic push by Vietnam to shape its global economic identity beyond simply being seen as a ‘China alternative’. 

At EBC, we see Vietnam not just as a substitute for China but as an emerging multi-aligned economic hub, drawing investment and partnerships from diverse global players without becoming tethered to any single power bloc. 

France’s Growing Footprint in Vietnam’s Future 

This extensive France–Vietnam agreement covers over 30 contracts in aerospace, pharmaceuticals, clean energy, and infrastructure sectors. Major French corporations like Airbus, EDF, and Sanofi are stepping up, backing Vietnam’s ambition to lead in innovative industries and sustainable development. 

Trade figures underscore this momentum. France ranks as Vietnam’s fourth-largest trade partner within the European Union. In 2024, trade between Vietnam and the EU reached $68.4 billion, with Vietnam enjoying a $35 billion surplus—a substantial increase from $28.7 billion in 2023. This growing surplus reflects Vietnam’s strengthening position and the value of its European connections. 

David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd., explains: “This isn’t just diplomacy—it’s economic positioning. Vietnam is attracting multi-aligned capital without becoming beholden to any single power bloc. That’s a rare advantage in today’s divided global landscape.” 

Strengthening Bonds with the United States 

Meanwhile, Vietnam is also deepening ties with the United States. Key areas include semiconductors, critical minerals, clean energy, and artificial intelligence manufacturing. These sectors align well with U.S. efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on China. 

Trade between the U.S. and Vietnam soared to $136.6 billion in 2024, marking a 19.3% jump over the previous year. This rise has elevated Vietnam to the position of America’s seventh-largest trading partner, up from twelfth in 2018. The 2023 U.S.–Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership further supports Vietnam’s digital economy ambitions. 

Barrett adds, “Vietnam has long benefited from its position as a neutral manufacturing hub amid U.S.-China trade tensions, but that dynamic is shifting. While past administrations sought to build regional alliances, future U.S. leadership, particularly under Trump, may view countries like Vietnam less as partners and more as pressure points in a broader economic agenda.” 

What This Means for Investors 

For investors, Vietnam’s rapid ascent sends clear signals: 

• Currency Volatility: The Vietnamese đồng may experience fluctuations as foreign capital pours in and domestic policies evolve. 
• Infrastructure Impact: Large-scale projects in energy and transportation could influence valuations in logistics, construction, and infrastructure sectors. 
• Sector Expansion: French and U.S. investments in semiconductors, green technology, and pharmaceuticals position Vietnamese firms for significant growth, especially those engaged in joint ventures or with state backing. 

Vietnam’s New Economic Statecraft Model 

Vietnam’s skillful balancing of global partnerships highlights a new model of economic statecraft—one that embraces diversification and avoids exclusive alliances. From our perspective at EBC, this presents a compelling investment thesis centred on resilience, innovation, and strategic neutrality in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Disclaimer: This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by EBC or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.