"Just Oil"

alexforex007 posted:
Oil keeps dropping and hurting the Canadian Dollar. Inflation in the Eurozone may have difficulty rising if crude keeps falling.

Ah, it will go back up.
Sweet light crude cheap to produce is history. Many existing projects and those coming online depends cannot be viable if price is below $70 at the very least. That includes Canadian sands. Fracking doubtfully is profitable even at $100.

Ok, some news to report.
Just finished building cushion on my futures account to start trading 2 contracts.
Which means $25 per pip/ tick. which means my account is 50% up. Next target to add another 50% , new cushion to increase my size to 4 contracts which is $50 per pip/ tick.
I am still on 1 contract this month and will increase size starting January 5, 2015.
On this account I have max daily loss on 1 contract $200-250, but as I requested from my broker, once realized loss is $150 account is blocked for a day. also cannot open more than 1 contract now. Need to ask broker to increase and now as I have built cushion I can. Risk control is first and foremost and having only one loss allowance a day makes me very patient with entries.
Snake in grass which is what I am thinking of myslef when approaching this thing.
Now back to bed.

Never underestimate Mr. market :) Anyway, I have no doubt crude will be back to $100's and possibly higher in say 1-3 years time frame. Shale oil production spike that caused oil glat on the market alos had created condition for shale oil production reduction due to current price issues which will create financing issues. It involves a lot of drilling to just keep those shale oil flows stable.
However it take time. Meanwhile I wonder how those shale oil guys gonna refinance and pay back their debts and if I am not mistaken there the whole junk bon industry based on that... Might be another 2008 kind of trigger.

Chikot posted:

alexforex007 posted:
Oil keeps dropping and hurting the Canadian Dollar. Inflation in the Eurozone may have difficulty rising if crude keeps falling.

Ah, it will go back up.
Sweet light crude cheap to produce is history. Many existing projects and those coming online depends cannot be viable if price is below $70 at the very least. That includes Canadian sands. Fracking doubtfully is profitable even at $100.

Been long time. Took my third check in 2 weeks. Should have done it long time ago.
Feel good.

I am currently working on long term trend following approach so, it will be interesting to see how things will work. It is slow. Entries are easy, it is exits that make money. Another things is what to trade and what not to trade.

How do you work long term if every month you have expiry?

This one I am trading with Oanda. No expiration.

arigoldman posted:
How do you work long term if every month you have expiry?

NFP Friday. I am out of all trades. Looks like some trend moves are overextended. Hopefully NFP Friday might help to get on at better prices.

Do you think oil might reach $20 this year? The bearish trend is so strong that nothing seems impossible.

What times we live in!

dianajs posted:
Do you think oil might reach $20 this year? The bearish trend is so strong that nothing seems impossible.

Definite possibility. I am looking for meaningful pull back to enter. so far nothing.
But then it might go back up to $100. It already happened once.

arigoldman posted:
What times we live in!

Death throws of capitalism and possibly civilization.

low demand and over production will keep oil weak for a while. unitl China picks up demand, there is no reason for oil to rally much higher.

Supply destruction which is what will bring oil up again... But it takes time. It is down trend now. I am not interested in oil at these levels though. i am watching gas and other markets. I am not stuck on one market.

Well that happened. Oil Below 31.

Yes, I am waiting for meaningful pull back. We cannot be sure that oil will drop much further. It is one probability. Hence, it is better to wait for better price in this case. I missed my chance. Shorted at around $42.50., But got spooked when price did not even touch previous multi weekly low and came back to my entry. basically it is a good idea to let price come back once as it might be only temporary pull back just like it happened.
Meanwhile I am trying to get something form other trending markets.
I guess I would be good idea to change this thread name as I am no longer trading only oil.

WTI reaches the 31.00 level again and this time if the bearish momentum accelerates, oil may reach the 30.00 level, putting more pressure on commodities, emerging markets, and oil producers currencies.

If I am not wrong oil already tested 29.70. I am not interested until there will be good pull back. but watching. I am waiting.

But we don't see the US rig counts drop. No one wants to cut the production. It might start to meet resistance at 25$ levels since Saudi-arabia will start to struggle with profitability. But remember we've yet to see the effects of Iran entering the global oil market.