"Just Oil"

some 70 pips up with very small risk. stop be.

closed this trade after coming back for some 50 pips. PA on 1H doe snot look good for shorts. previous one hour close and current 1H look like the last effort by bears. will be watching Sunday through Monday daily candles and 1H PA for possible trading decisions. will resume my oil trading too on Monday. another effort.

On live I shorted from around 1.3040 after NFP release but on demo I did even better. also it was not according to my plan unlike live, still pretty good entry.



some 100 pips for 15 pips stop loss. short entry was 1.3121 with stop at 1.3136

Hi Chikot, do you still trade WTI and ukoil ?
I mostly trade WTI, sometimes Ukoil
that's be good if we can talk about trading i'll stay here a bit, then if you wanna comme on skype you are more then welcome.

It's been long time. Been busting my balls and working relentlessly on my trading.
If I could I would rename this thread into Just Beans.
I have not traded live since my last post but was working to develop my plan and myslef as a trader.
Time has come to put my money where my mouth is.
Building my account to start making living from it.
No FX. it is Futures.

Oil keeps dropping and hurting the Canadian Dollar. Inflation in the Eurozone may have difficulty rising if crude keeps falling.

alexforex007 posted:
Oil keeps dropping and hurting the Canadian Dollar. Inflation in the Eurozone may have difficulty rising if crude keeps falling.

Ah, it will go back up.
Sweet light crude cheap to produce is history. Many existing projects and those coming online depends cannot be viable if price is below $70 at the very least. That includes Canadian sands. Fracking doubtfully is profitable even at $100.

Ok, some news to report.
Just finished building cushion on my futures account to start trading 2 contracts.
Which means $25 per pip/ tick. which means my account is 50% up. Next target to add another 50% , new cushion to increase my size to 4 contracts which is $50 per pip/ tick.
I am still on 1 contract this month and will increase size starting January 5, 2015.
On this account I have max daily loss on 1 contract $200-250, but as I requested from my broker, once realized loss is $150 account is blocked for a day. also cannot open more than 1 contract now. Need to ask broker to increase and now as I have built cushion I can. Risk control is first and foremost and having only one loss allowance a day makes me very patient with entries.
Snake in grass which is what I am thinking of myslef when approaching this thing.
Now back to bed.

Never underestimate Mr. market :) Anyway, I have no doubt crude will be back to $100's and possibly higher in say 1-3 years time frame. Shale oil production spike that caused oil glat on the market alos had created condition for shale oil production reduction due to current price issues which will create financing issues. It involves a lot of drilling to just keep those shale oil flows stable.
However it take time. Meanwhile I wonder how those shale oil guys gonna refinance and pay back their debts and if I am not mistaken there the whole junk bon industry based on that... Might be another 2008 kind of trigger.

Chikot posted:

alexforex007 posted:
Oil keeps dropping and hurting the Canadian Dollar. Inflation in the Eurozone may have difficulty rising if crude keeps falling.

Ah, it will go back up.
Sweet light crude cheap to produce is history. Many existing projects and those coming online depends cannot be viable if price is below $70 at the very least. That includes Canadian sands. Fracking doubtfully is profitable even at $100.

Been long time. Took my third check in 2 weeks. Should have done it long time ago.
Feel good.

I am currently working on long term trend following approach so, it will be interesting to see how things will work. It is slow. Entries are easy, it is exits that make money. Another things is what to trade and what not to trade.

How do you work long term if every month you have expiry?

This one I am trading with Oanda. No expiration.

arigoldman posted:
How do you work long term if every month you have expiry?

NFP Friday. I am out of all trades. Looks like some trend moves are overextended. Hopefully NFP Friday might help to get on at better prices.

Do you think oil might reach $20 this year? The bearish trend is so strong that nothing seems impossible.

What times we live in!

dianajs posted:
Do you think oil might reach $20 this year? The bearish trend is so strong that nothing seems impossible.

Definite possibility. I am looking for meaningful pull back to enter. so far nothing.
But then it might go back up to $100. It already happened once.

arigoldman posted:
What times we live in!

Death throws of capitalism and possibly civilization.