DJI30 Outlook
The DJI30 has formed a long probability peak at 45912.48. Probability trend is up, long prob constantly above the down prob. Now, there is a probable structure break - if up probability goes stable above the green line, we expect the index to go down in search of a new up probability maximum.
Up probability has continued to decrease, which has driven the quotes higher ...
The index broke its probability structure yesterday, suggesting a down move towards testing the long probability high or forming a new one. It is probable that the pair first confirms the break point, though.
I am finishing with the comments here, just to make sure that the turning point has become clear. The index tested the red spot and is now going down ...
kolev posted:
The DJI30 has formed a long probability peak at 45912.48. Probability trend is up, long prob constantly above the down prob. Now, there is a probable structure break - if up probability goes stable above the green line, we expect the index to go down in search of a new up probability maximum.
what say you guys?!
Now, the DJI30 will either confirm its present long probability peak at 45912.48 (which has not currently been broken) or form a new long probability peak. Since a second peak is not formed yet, I hold the first scenario more probable. Which confirms the above trend you noticed.
Thanks for the analysis and graphs.Interesting.
DSikora posted:Thanks for the analysis and graphs.Interesting.
well im not sure who you addressed this to, if i was included, thanks a lot. :) but dont trade based on my analysis, i would not take the responsibility :D
In the meantime, the index has formed a new high at 46039.85. So, following the timeline: there was a long prob high at A, then there was a probability structure break at B, which started a downturn. This was interesting to me, capturing the downturn from the probability structure break. Now we have a new long probability high at C. The A and C points lie on the candlestick structural line perhaps.
