EUR/USD
Mitglied seit Oct 08, 2011
137 Posts
Dec 11, 2014 at 04:30
EUR/USD - monthly chart
when looking at the monthly chart it is important to notice, that in the last 5 months the open price and close prices moved closer together each month.
The open of this month is at 1.2462, which was taken out yesterday.
A simple rule in price bar formation trading is:
when you have 3 or more bars in the same trend (in this case - open high and close lower)
and then a reversal bar (open low and close higher), a buy-stop can be placed 1 pip above the high of the reversal bar.
This will apply in January, if the Dec. bar turns out to be a reversal bar.
In addition, there is another rule which reinforces the above rule:
If the open price and close price are within the top 20% of the total length of the bar (called a crow-bar), place a buy-stop order.
Iff open and close are within the bottom 20%, place a sell-stop order. The buy or sell price is always 1 pip above the high or 1 pip below the low respectively.
when looking at the monthly chart it is important to notice, that in the last 5 months the open price and close prices moved closer together each month.
The open of this month is at 1.2462, which was taken out yesterday.
A simple rule in price bar formation trading is:
when you have 3 or more bars in the same trend (in this case - open high and close lower)
and then a reversal bar (open low and close higher), a buy-stop can be placed 1 pip above the high of the reversal bar.
This will apply in January, if the Dec. bar turns out to be a reversal bar.
In addition, there is another rule which reinforces the above rule:
If the open price and close price are within the top 20% of the total length of the bar (called a crow-bar), place a buy-stop order.
Iff open and close are within the bottom 20%, place a sell-stop order. The buy or sell price is always 1 pip above the high or 1 pip below the low respectively.
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
Mitglied seit Oct 08, 2011
137 Posts
Dec 11, 2014 at 05:09
EUR/USD - daily chart
after a down-trend of nearly 2000 pips in the past 8 months, the high of the 'last full correction' on the daily chart is a crucial price point. The price is 1.2530
If this price is taken out, prices could turn back into the old trend (down trend) for 2 or 3 bars (days) and then confirm the new trend - in this case up trend.
Once this is accomplished, any hook can be traded with a buy-stop order all the way to near the 'last full correction' on the weekly chart, which is at 1.2886
Price targets then are 1.2889, 1.2918 and 1.3000
All 3 prices are 'cavity stops' on the weekly chart
All price-bar formation rules apply to any time frame, meaning, that until the above is accomplished, buy-stop orders can be placed on hooks on the 4 hr. chart.
The 4 hr. chart is currently NOT in consolidation.
after a down-trend of nearly 2000 pips in the past 8 months, the high of the 'last full correction' on the daily chart is a crucial price point. The price is 1.2530
If this price is taken out, prices could turn back into the old trend (down trend) for 2 or 3 bars (days) and then confirm the new trend - in this case up trend.
Once this is accomplished, any hook can be traded with a buy-stop order all the way to near the 'last full correction' on the weekly chart, which is at 1.2886
Price targets then are 1.2889, 1.2918 and 1.3000
All 3 prices are 'cavity stops' on the weekly chart
All price-bar formation rules apply to any time frame, meaning, that until the above is accomplished, buy-stop orders can be placed on hooks on the 4 hr. chart.
The 4 hr. chart is currently NOT in consolidation.
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
Mitglied seit Apr 08, 2014
1141 Posts
Dec 11, 2014 at 09:03
EURUSD continues to find buyers on low news volume, but so far have failed to break any significant resistance, the most significant of those, in the short-term, being 1.2450.
A sustained break there is needed to signal short-term bears are standing aside. Even without that break bulls have the upper hand in the short-term, and will continue to have it above 1.2390 support. Long-term trend remains bearish.
A sustained break there is needed to signal short-term bears are standing aside. Even without that break bulls have the upper hand in the short-term, and will continue to have it above 1.2390 support. Long-term trend remains bearish.
"I trade to make money not to be right."
Mitglied seit Jul 10, 2014
1117 Posts
Dec 11, 2014 at 16:24
EUR/USD broke above the resistance at 1.2460 only to start descending again after forming another inverted hammer candlestick pattern on the 4 hour filter chart. At this point, however, I am not certain whether this new movement to the downside is part of the bearish trend or part of the correction.
Dec 11, 2014 at 19:10
EUR/USD continues to rise with the breaking of the downward trend line.
It confirmed the formation of the 'morning star' candle on the daily chart.
However, the increase stopped by the moving average of 200 periods.
The short-term momentum is positive and even the long-term decline is losing momentum.
R3 - 1.25612
R2 - 1.25043
R1 - 1.24755
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24186
S1 - 1.23898
S2 - 1.23329
S3 - 1.23041
https://bewayopa.wordpress.com/
It confirmed the formation of the 'morning star' candle on the daily chart.
However, the increase stopped by the moving average of 200 periods.
The short-term momentum is positive and even the long-term decline is losing momentum.
R3 - 1.25612
R2 - 1.25043
R1 - 1.24755
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.24186
S1 - 1.23898
S2 - 1.23329
S3 - 1.23041
https://bewayopa.wordpress.com/
Mitglied seit Jun 08, 2014
454 Posts
Dec 11, 2014 at 19:50
the monthly retail sales pushed the price to fall. a swing with no direction decided.
forex_trader_29148
Mitglied seit Feb 11, 2011
1916 Posts
Dec 11, 2014 at 23:35
the pair running sideways before falling again pretty soon
Mitglied seit Apr 14, 2014
230 Posts
Dec 11, 2014 at 23:55
Despite breaking key resistance level, euro still showing sigh of weakness, failed to extend the rally and struggled to hold above 1.24 level.
Mitglied seit Apr 08, 2014
1141 Posts
Dec 12, 2014 at 08:52
EURUSD initially tried to rally to the 1.25 handle on yesterday session but found enough resistance to turn back down. The pair ended up rolling towards the 1.2350 level, an area of significant support. Once the pair gets below it, Bears will show their claws, and the price will head down to the 1.2250 level. A daily close above the 1.25 handle will shift the mid-term trend to bullish.
"I trade to make money not to be right."
Mitglied seit Oct 08, 2011
137 Posts
Dec 12, 2014 at 12:45
andryou80 posted:
today will fall
it would be helpful if you also explain why 'today will fall', otherwise your comment seems worthless.
"a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing"
Mitglied seit Jul 10, 2014
1117 Posts
Dec 12, 2014 at 18:14
Indeed, EUR/USD moved to the upside again today and appears that the correction continues. The likely target is, I think, 1.2570.
Mitglied seit Jun 08, 2014
454 Posts
Dec 12, 2014 at 21:13
The problem is the that the market is unstable, three days now price is keep falling and rising forming identical candle sticks
Mitglied seit Oct 27, 2014
53 Posts
Dec 12, 2014 at 22:07
Maby gut instinct :-)
Dec 12, 2014 at 23:15
EUR / USD had no strength to continue to rise to meet resistance near the moving average of 200 periods.
Began to to trade again below the falling trend line.
However, as the positive difference between the short-term oscillators and the price action is still active and the possibility of a higher minimum and another break above the trend line still exists.
R3 - 1.2606
R2 - 1.2546
R1 - 1.2505
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.2445
S1 - 1.2404
S2 - 1.2344
S3 - 1.2303
https://bewayopa.wordpress.com/
Began to to trade again below the falling trend line.
However, as the positive difference between the short-term oscillators and the price action is still active and the possibility of a higher minimum and another break above the trend line still exists.
R3 - 1.2606
R2 - 1.2546
R1 - 1.2505
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.2445
S1 - 1.2404
S2 - 1.2344
S3 - 1.2303
https://bewayopa.wordpress.com/
