​EBC Markets Briefing | Gold meanders in the wake of US-China talk

Gold moved sideways on Wednesday as a potential extension of a tariff pause between the US China is yet to be confirmed by Trump following the negotiation between top trade officials in Stockholm.

Bessent warned Russian oil customers could be slapped with secondary tariffs of 100% in 10 to 12 days, reflecting growing frustration with Russia's actions. The hawkish stance will again agitate Beijing.

The IMF raised its outlook for economic growth across emerging market and developing economies this year to 4.1% from 3.7% despite trade risks, driven by a more upbeat view on China.

Global physically backed gold ETFs saw inflows of $38-billion during the first half of this year, marking the strongest semi-annual performance since the first half of 2020, according to the WGC.

Gold could hit $4,000 an ounce by the end of next year as the Fed cuts rates to cushion the US economy, the dollar drops, and central bank buying, according to Fidelity International.

The metal has traded within a tight range over the past few months, with demand for safe havens cooling a little as some progress in trade talks eased fears about worst-case-scenarios.

Bullion languished below its 50 SMA, and bottomed out around $3,300 earlier this week. We see the rally has more room to run until the price hits $3,340.

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