USDCAD

USD/CAD formed a pair of hammer candlesticks on the 1-hour time frame above the support at 1.2870, I think next target will be around 1.2930 - 1.2950.

USD/CAD is testing 1.2950, I am waiting for the breakout to open new long positions. I think that if it does break out it will reach at least 1.3000.

USD/CAD rally was short lived

With the fall in oil comes a decline in the USD/CAD pair. The pair was already in a medium-term downtrend but recently had been rallying with oil. Crude oil prices made their way to nearly $50 this month which provided a catalyst for USD/CAD to rally. With the build in oil, today the momentum behind the crude rally is over, and this will weigh on the Loonie.

From a technical perspective, the pair has been consolidating sideways all week near the 1.2950 area which is a support/resistance line tracing back to October 2105 with multiple touch point since then. On an 8 hour chart, the price has run to the median line and has been moving sideways. With each bullish push into the declining pitchfork, the median line has rejected price setting up the reversal.

Current situation:
- The pair has found resistance at the median line of the pitchfork on the 8-hour chart.
- US economic data dominates the calendar Thursday and Friday this week. Next week more US data and Canadian m/m GDP.
   
Looking ahead:
 - Lower oil prices will result in a weaker Loonie. The market currently lacks a catalyst to push oil up over $50. There is another inventory report next Wednesday.
  
Notes:
- The overnight lending rates of the two currencies are now the same negating any carry benefit for the Loonie.

USD/CAD is stuck in a relatively tight range. I don't think we will see much volatility and an end to the range before Janet Yellen's speech tomorrow.

Janet Yellen's speech only mostly caused a whipsaw, but the pair is bullish at the moment. I think it will reach target 1.2940.

Bullish on the pair.

Despite the initial whipsaw USD/CAD climbed with about 180 pips after the FED Chair's speech last week and broke above 1.3000. I think next target is 1.3070, maybe even 1.3100.

USD/CAD broke above 1.3070 and I think it will likely reach 1.3100 soon. If it breaks out above that level next target will be around 1.3140 - 1.3160.

USD/CAD reached a hugh at 1.3111 and found some resistance at that level, forming a pair of doji bars on the four-hour time frame. I think there will be retracement towards 1.3030.

The pair is still consolidating around 1.3110 - 1.3120, I think that consolidation won't end before the NFP tomorrow.

USD/CAD dropped significantly after the NFP, but I closed my short position at 1.2910 and I think I will wait for it to break below 1.2900 before I open a new one again.

Oil slipping, USDCAD back above 1.2910.

USD/CAD broke well below 1.2900 and is now testing 1.2850. I think the drop will continue at least until the pair reaches 1.2800 - 1.2780.

The Bank of Canada will be announcing its rate statement later today, I think the pair will continue consolidating above 1.2850 until that time.

@dianajs , do you think that the interest rate decision, if it will remain at 0.50%, will give the cad a bullish trend, or will remain its bearish bias?

jayrness posted:
@dianajs , do you think that the interest rate decision, if it will remain at 0.50%, will give the cad a bullish trend, or will remain its bearish bias?

There is virtually no chance that they'll change the rate. Its all about the statement.

I would have been very surprised if they had changed it, to be honest.

Following the news today USD/CAD broke above 1.2970 and then above 1.3000. I think next target will be around 1.3080 - 1.3100.

do you think USD CAD will rebound now and go back to a downtrend to 1.28