Is Martingale the real and the only holy grail?

Jul 31, 2020 at 03:04
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45 Replies
Miembro desde Jul 12, 2018   posts 13
Jul 31, 2020 at 03:04 (editado Jul 31, 2020 at 03:05)
Hi.

I have been trading since 2017 now, and I have tried everything from indicators, to price action trading, to structure and support and resistance. I have tried everything you can think of but nothing worked out with me. It has been a long and painful experience to be honest. Lost a lot of money (I'm sure not less than 10 grands). I started recently tweaking with martingale-style strategies, and same as everybody was saying. It will work until that one big sequence of losses that will blow your account. And no matter how much time passes before seeing one sequence, it will eventually happen one day. Until I came across this setting of more than +35000 trades simulated on a five year period that resulted in 500% gain with as little as 7% drawdown. Please find attached screenshot. Is Martingale sustainable, or it is just a series of good luck??


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Miembro desde Jul 25, 2018   posts 319
Jul 31, 2020 at 04:03
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.
BUY NOW www.hollandtrader.site
Miembro desde May 11, 2020   posts 89
Aug 02, 2020 at 02:44
Martingale and grid systems will never work in the long term unless the strategy itself has a long term statistical edge over the market.

It’s just the same as there has never been a betting system that will work against the casino in the long term - except cardcounting in Blackjack which has been banned or rendered useless with automatic shuffling machines by the casinos.

The bottomline is you need to have a strategy that has a LONG TERM EDGE over the market. It is hard to do but not impossible, which we have demonstrated with our Smart Forex Expert EAs.😄
Miembro desde Jul 12, 2018   posts 13
Aug 02, 2020 at 09:48
SFETrading posted:
Martingale and grid systems will never work in the long term unless the strategy itself has a long term statistical edge over the market.

It’s just the same as there has never been a betting system that will work against the casino in the long term - except cardcounting in Blackjack which has been banned or rendered useless with automatic shuffling machines by the casinos.

The bottomline is you need to have a strategy that has a LONG TERM EDGE over the market. It is hard to do but not impossible, which we have demonstrated with our Smart Forex Expert EAs.😄

Thanks for your inputs. But did you review the results in the attached picture? If a system had had over +35000 trades without blowing up, that means it has a statistical edge over the market right?
Miembro desde May 11, 2020   posts 89
Aug 02, 2020 at 12:47
Well if a system has had 35000+ trades and still remains positive then it is possible it has a long term edge over the market. The next step would be to put it into live trading and see if it performs similar to the backtest.

Also you should try and backtest and see if the return will also remain positive without having to increase the trade size. A long term profitable strategy should be profitable even if you just use the same lot size for each trade.
Miembro desde Aug 02, 2020   posts 3
Aug 02, 2020 at 13:07
kasparsvas16 posted:
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.

Does this use martingale strategy as its main formula ? Should I not buy this EA. Some people say martingale strategies do not last.
Miembro desde Jul 12, 2018   posts 13
Aug 02, 2020 at 14:29
kasparsvas16 posted:
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.

Thank you for your suggestions, I'll make sure to test these assumptions and see if they contribute to the overall profitability over the long term.
Miembro desde Jul 12, 2018   posts 13
Aug 02, 2020 at 14:31
SFETrading posted:
Well if a system has had 35000+ trades and still remains positive then it is possible it has a long term edge over the market. The next step would be to put it into live trading and see if it performs similar to the backtest.

Also you should try and backtest and see if the return will also remain positive without having to increase the trade size. A long term profitable strategy should be profitable even if you just use the same lot size for each trade.

Actually increasing in your lot size as you collect more profits is what will keep you afloat when you get this big drawdowns. But you have to increase it smartly and sensibly.
Miembro desde May 11, 2020   posts 89
Aug 02, 2020 at 15:04
If a system has a long term edge over the market, then of course increasing the trading size as the account grows will magnify the profit.

What I was trying to say is that some systems seem profitable when they use martingale lot sizes, but they won't actually be profitable using fixed lot. If a system has a real long term edge, then it should also be able to beat the market trading just with fixed lot, without having to rely on increasing the trading lot size to make recovery.
Miembro desde Oct 01, 2019   posts 49
Aug 02, 2020 at 21:51
I know you've tried a lot, and it almost sounds like you're reaching a point of exhaustion with this. Have you tried trading just once or twice a day on a particular setup? You have 2+ years of trading history, and there are winners there, why not just go back and try to replicate them? If nothing shows, no trade. By doing as close to the same thing everyday, you'll get better and become consistent over time - and you wont have huge losses.

According to this, 37,000+ trades over 5 years. You'd have to open 25-30 trades - a day - no breaks, just to earn ~7% a month. This strategy likely isn't possible. (Also have to consider commission, swap, and avg holding time)
Miembro desde Jul 12, 2018   posts 13
Aug 03, 2020 at 10:06
Curtid33 posted:
I know you've tried a lot, and it almost sounds like you're reaching a point of exhaustion with this. Have you tried trading just once or twice a day on a particular setup? You have 2+ years of trading history, and there are winners there, why not just go back and try to replicate them? If nothing shows, no trade. By doing as close to the same thing everyday, you'll get better and become consistent over time - and you wont have huge losses.

According to this, 37,000+ trades over 5 years. You'd have to open 25-30 trades - a day - no breaks, just to earn ~7% a month. This strategy likely isn't possible. (Also have to consider commission, swap, and avg holding time)

I did try all this. Waiting for good setups when all indicators scream you should buy, and when you buy your stop loss is hit. I tried all kinds of different Risk/Reward Ratios and all of them will result in a negative sloping equity curve over time. Trading with a stop loss is the very first cause of losing money in forex, it is actually a more contributing factor in losing then commission/spreads.
Right now, I'm using $2000 accounts to test this EA on live price action. Hopefully one day, I'll switch for $10000. Isn't a 7% monthly return worth the hustle?
Miembro desde Feb 22, 2011   posts 4862
Aug 03, 2020 at 11:43
mnsr9494 posted:
Hi.

I have been trading since 2017 now, and I have tried everything from indicators, to price action trading, to structure and support and resistance. I have tried everything you can think of but nothing worked out with me. It has been a long and painful experience to be honest. Lost a lot of money (I'm sure not less than 10 grands). I started recently tweaking with martingale-style strategies, and same as everybody was saying. It will work until that one big sequence of losses that will blow your account. And no matter how much time passes before seeing one sequence, it will eventually happen one day. Until I came across this setting of more than +35000 trades simulated on a five year period that resulted in 500% gain with as little as 7% drawdown. Please find attached screenshot. Is Martingale sustainable, or it is just a series of good luck??

A. Martingale provides high risk for low profit, there are indeed better strategies
B. your backttesting results are worthless as the data quality are too low
Miembro desde May 24, 2013   posts 67
Aug 03, 2020 at 12:50
kasparsvas16 posted:
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.

WTF I'm doing exactly the same things as you.
Strive to archive more.
Miembro desde Jul 12, 2018   posts 13
Aug 03, 2020 at 13:20
togr posted:
mnsr9494 posted:
Hi.

I have been trading since 2017 now, and I have tried everything from indicators, to price action trading, to structure and support and resistance. I have tried everything you can think of but nothing worked out with me. It has been a long and painful experience to be honest. Lost a lot of money (I'm sure not less than 10 grands). I started recently tweaking with martingale-style strategies, and same as everybody was saying. It will work until that one big sequence of losses that will blow your account. And no matter how much time passes before seeing one sequence, it will eventually happen one day. Until I came across this setting of more than +35000 trades simulated on a five year period that resulted in 500% gain with as little as 7% drawdown. Please find attached screenshot. Is Martingale sustainable, or it is just a series of good luck??

A. Martingale provides high risk for low profit, there are indeed better strategies
B. your backttesting results are worthless as the data quality are too low

Thank you for your feedback but if you have some knowledge in MT4 back-testing you should be aware that low quality modeling means higher time frame. I did this testing on the daily candles, if I would go for 1M back-testing, it will result in a high quality modeling. Not all strategies require minute-by-minute back-testing.
Miembro desde Oct 01, 2019   posts 49
Aug 03, 2020 at 13:25
mnsr9494 posted:
I did try all this. Waiting for good setups when all indicators scream you should buy, and when you buy your stop loss is hit. I tried all kinds of different Risk/Reward Ratios and all of them will result in a negative sloping equity curve over time. Trading with a stop loss is the very first cause of losing money in forex, it is actually a more contributing factor in losing then commission/spreads.
Right now, I'm using $2000 accounts to test this EA on live price action. Hopefully one day, I'll switch for $10000. Isn't a 7% monthly return worth the hustle?

Everyone has a stoploss, it's the margin call. You know this going into Martingale, and from others on this thread, but it seems you'll ignore the warning signs. A lot of trading is just like this too. That's why people let winning trades reverse, and hold losing trades all the way to sl.
You have to confront yourself psychologically about why these things happened. You can also view my account for reference. Calmed down and started doing the same thing in July. Average ~3% risk, only won 54% of 28 trades, but I closed up 20% for the month. I'm sure you can make 7% with just 1% risk if you put your mind to it.
Miembro desde Jul 12, 2018   posts 13
Aug 03, 2020 at 13:43
Curtid33 posted:
mnsr9494 posted:
I did try all this. Waiting for good setups when all indicators scream you should buy, and when you buy your stop loss is hit. I tried all kinds of different Risk/Reward Ratios and all of them will result in a negative sloping equity curve over time. Trading with a stop loss is the very first cause of losing money in forex, it is actually a more contributing factor in losing then commission/spreads.
Right now, I'm using $2000 accounts to test this EA on live price action. Hopefully one day, I'll switch for $10000. Isn't a 7% monthly return worth the hustle?

Everyone has a stoploss, it's the margin call. You know this going into Martingale, and from others on this thread, but it seems you'll ignore the warning signs. A lot of trading is just like this too. That's why people let winning trades reverse, and hold losing trades all the way to sl.
You have to confront yourself psychologically about why these things happened. You can also view my account for reference. Calmed down and started doing the same thing in July. Average ~3% risk, only won 54% of 28 trades, but I closed up 20% for the month. I'm sure you can make 7% with just 1% risk if you put your mind to it.

It doesn't really matter to me if I get a margin call. It is the natural response of using Martingale strategies. I did enough comprehensive testing to conclude that there is a probability of getting my account blown up but it is extremely small. A $2000 blown account won't hurt me because there is a large probability I will be rewarded a 500% return on any of my accounts, and here is the catch. It is similar to the model that movie directors apply to their movies. Of course, not all their movies will win Oscars, actually they will spend more on some of them more than what they will make from. But once they get that one big movie, they will compensate for all the movies at which they lost.
Miembro desde Feb 22, 2011   posts 4862
Aug 03, 2020 at 14:27
mnsr9494 posted:
togr posted:
mnsr9494 posted:
Hi.

I have been trading since 2017 now, and I have tried everything from indicators, to price action trading, to structure and support and resistance. I have tried everything you can think of but nothing worked out with me. It has been a long and painful experience to be honest. Lost a lot of money (I'm sure not less than 10 grands). I started recently tweaking with martingale-style strategies, and same as everybody was saying. It will work until that one big sequence of losses that will blow your account. And no matter how much time passes before seeing one sequence, it will eventually happen one day. Until I came across this setting of more than +35000 trades simulated on a five year period that resulted in 500% gain with as little as 7% drawdown. Please find attached screenshot. Is Martingale sustainable, or it is just a series of good luck??

A. Martingale provides high risk for low profit, there are indeed better strategies
B. your backttesting results are worthless as the data quality are too low

Thank you for your feedback but if you have some knowledge in MT4 back-testing you should be aware that low quality modeling means higher time frame. I did this testing on the daily candles, if I would go for 1M back-testing, it will result in a high quality modeling. Not all strategies require minute-by-minute back-testing.
Nope, the data for backtesting in mt4
To get good quality data you have to use external tool.
Miembro desde Jan 31, 2012   posts 168
Aug 03, 2020 at 15:38
If you have to ask you should try and find out.
Miembro desde Jul 12, 2018   posts 13
Aug 04, 2020 at 13:10
MRodrigez posted:
If you have to ask you should try and find out.

I’ll indeed. Thanks for your encouragment.
Miembro desde Feb 22, 2011   posts 4862
Aug 04, 2020 at 13:42
Curtid33 posted:
mnsr9494 posted:
I did try all this. Waiting for good setups when all indicators scream you should buy, and when you buy your stop loss is hit. I tried all kinds of different Risk/Reward Ratios and all of them will result in a negative sloping equity curve over time. Trading with a stop loss is the very first cause of losing money in forex, it is actually a more contributing factor in losing then commission/spreads.
Right now, I'm using $2000 accounts to test this EA on live price action. Hopefully one day, I'll switch for $10000. Isn't a 7% monthly return worth the hustle?

Everyone has a stoploss, it's the margin call. You know this going into Martingale, and from others on this thread, but it seems you'll ignore the warning signs. A lot of trading is just like this too. That's why people let winning trades reverse, and hold losing trades all the way to sl.
You have to confront yourself psychologically about why these things happened. You can also view my account for reference. Calmed down and started doing the same thing in July. Average ~3% risk, only won 54% of 28 trades, but I closed up 20% for the month. I'm sure you can make 7% with just 1% risk if you put your mind to it.

Margin call depends on your leverage, so it could be your total deposit and even more than that :)
But nice try to promote your trading.
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