Is Martingale the real and the only holy grail?

SFETrading posted:
Martingale and grid systems will never work in the long term unless the strategy itself has a long term statistical edge over the market.

It’s just the same as there has never been a betting system that will work against the casino in the long term - except cardcounting in Blackjack which has been banned or rendered useless with automatic shuffling machines by the casinos.

The bottomline is you need to have a strategy that has a LONG TERM EDGE over the market. It is hard to do but not impossible, which we have demonstrated with our Smart Forex Expert EAs.😄

kasparsvas16 posted:
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.

kasparsvas16 posted:
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.

SFETrading posted:
Well if a system has had 35000+ trades and still remains positive then it is possible it has a long term edge over the market. The next step would be to put it into live trading and see if it performs similar to the backtest.

Also you should try and backtest and see if the return will also remain positive without having to increase the trade size. A long term profitable strategy should be profitable even if you just use the same lot size for each trade.

Curtid33 posted:
I know you've tried a lot, and it almost sounds like you're reaching a point of exhaustion with this. Have you tried trading just once or twice a day on a particular setup? You have 2+ years of trading history, and there are winners there, why not just go back and try to replicate them? If nothing shows, no trade. By doing as close to the same thing everyday, you'll get better and become consistent over time - and you wont have huge losses.

According to this, 37,000+ trades over 5 years. You'd have to open 25-30 trades - a day - no breaks, just to earn ~7% a month. This strategy likely isn't possible. (Also have to consider commission, swap, and avg holding time)

mnsr9494 posted:
Hi.

I have been trading since 2017 now, and I have tried everything from indicators, to price action trading, to structure and support and resistance. I have tried everything you can think of but nothing worked out with me. It has been a long and painful experience to be honest. Lost a lot of money (I'm sure not less than 10 grands). I started recently tweaking with martingale-style strategies, and same as everybody was saying. It will work until that one big sequence of losses that will blow your account. And no matter how much time passes before seeing one sequence, it will eventually happen one day. Until I came across this setting of more than +35000 trades simulated on a five year period that resulted in 500% gain with as little as 7% drawdown. Please find attached screenshot. Is Martingale sustainable, or it is just a series of good luck??

kasparsvas16 posted:
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.

togr posted:

mnsr9494 posted:
Hi.

I have been trading since 2017 now, and I have tried everything from indicators, to price action trading, to structure and support and resistance. I have tried everything you can think of but nothing worked out with me. It has been a long and painful experience to be honest. Lost a lot of money (I'm sure not less than 10 grands). I started recently tweaking with martingale-style strategies, and same as everybody was saying. It will work until that one big sequence of losses that will blow your account. And no matter how much time passes before seeing one sequence, it will eventually happen one day. Until I came across this setting of more than +35000 trades simulated on a five year period that resulted in 500% gain with as little as 7% drawdown. Please find attached screenshot. Is Martingale sustainable, or it is just a series of good luck??

A. Martingale provides high risk for low profit, there are indeed better strategies
B. your backttesting results are worthless as the data quality are too low

mnsr9494 posted:
I did try all this. Waiting for good setups when all indicators scream you should buy, and when you buy your stop loss is hit. I tried all kinds of different Risk/Reward Ratios and all of them will result in a negative sloping equity curve over time. Trading with a stop loss is the very first cause of losing money in forex, it is actually a more contributing factor in losing then commission/spreads.
Right now, I'm using $2000 accounts to test this EA on live price action. Hopefully one day, I'll switch for $10000. Isn't a 7% monthly return worth the hustle?

Curtid33 posted:

mnsr9494 posted:
I did try all this. Waiting for good setups when all indicators scream you should buy, and when you buy your stop loss is hit. I tried all kinds of different Risk/Reward Ratios and all of them will result in a negative sloping equity curve over time. Trading with a stop loss is the very first cause of losing money in forex, it is actually a more contributing factor in losing then commission/spreads.
Right now, I'm using $2000 accounts to test this EA on live price action. Hopefully one day, I'll switch for $10000. Isn't a 7% monthly return worth the hustle?

Everyone has a stoploss, it's the margin call. You know this going into Martingale, and from others on this thread, but it seems you'll ignore the warning signs. A lot of trading is just like this too. That's why people let winning trades reverse, and hold losing trades all the way to sl.
You have to confront yourself psychologically about why these things happened. You can also view my account for reference. Calmed down and started doing the same thing in July. Average ~3% risk, only won 54% of 28 trades, but I closed up 20% for the month. I'm sure you can make 7% with just 1% risk if you put your mind to it.

mnsr9494 posted:

togr posted:

mnsr9494 posted:
Hi.

I have been trading since 2017 now, and I have tried everything from indicators, to price action trading, to structure and support and resistance. I have tried everything you can think of but nothing worked out with me. It has been a long and painful experience to be honest. Lost a lot of money (I'm sure not less than 10 grands). I started recently tweaking with martingale-style strategies, and same as everybody was saying. It will work until that one big sequence of losses that will blow your account. And no matter how much time passes before seeing one sequence, it will eventually happen one day. Until I came across this setting of more than +35000 trades simulated on a five year period that resulted in 500% gain with as little as 7% drawdown. Please find attached screenshot. Is Martingale sustainable, or it is just a series of good luck??

A. Martingale provides high risk for low profit, there are indeed better strategies
B. your backttesting results are worthless as the data quality are too low

Thank you for your feedback but if you have some knowledge in MT4 back-testing you should be aware that low quality modeling means higher time frame. I did this testing on the daily candles, if I would go for 1M back-testing, it will result in a high quality modeling. Not all strategies require minute-by-minute back-testing.

MRodrigez posted:
If you have to ask you should try and find out.