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Is Martingale the real and the only holy grail?
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mnsr9494

Member Since Jul 12, 2018  8 posts mnsr9494 Jul 31 at 03:04 (edited Jul 31 at 03:05 )
Hi.

I have been trading since 2017 now, and I have tried everything from indicators, to price action trading, to structure and support and resistance. I have tried everything you can think of but nothing worked out with me. It has been a long and painful experience to be honest. Lost a lot of money (I'm sure not less than 10 grands). I started recently tweaking with martingale-style strategies, and same as everybody was saying. It will work until that one big sequence of losses that will blow your account. And no matter how much time passes before seeing one sequence, it will eventually happen one day. Until I came across this setting of more than +35000 trades simulated on a five year period that resulted in 500% gain with as little as 7% drawdown. Please find attached screenshot. Is Martingale sustainable, or it is just a series of good luck??

Attachments:

kasparsvas16

Member Since Jul 25, 2018  42 posts HollandTrader (kasparsvas16) Jul 31 at 04:03
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.

BUY NOW www.hollandtrader.site
SFETrading

Member Since May 11, 2020  8 posts SmartForexExpert (SFETrading) Yesterday at 02:44
Martingale and grid systems will never work in the long term unless the strategy itself has a long term statistical edge over the market.

It’s just the same as there has never been a betting system that will work against the casino in the long term - except cardcounting in Blackjack which has been banned or rendered useless with automatic shuffling machines by the casinos.

The bottomline is you need to have a strategy that has a LONG TERM EDGE over the market. It is hard to do but not impossible, which we have demonstrated with our Smart Forex Expert EAs.smiley

mnsr9494

Member Since Jul 12, 2018  8 posts mnsr9494 Yesterday at 09:48
SFETrading posted:
Martingale and grid systems will never work in the long term unless the strategy itself has a long term statistical edge over the market.

It’s just the same as there has never been a betting system that will work against the casino in the long term - except cardcounting in Blackjack which has been banned or rendered useless with automatic shuffling machines by the casinos.

The bottomline is you need to have a strategy that has a LONG TERM EDGE over the market. It is hard to do but not impossible, which we have demonstrated with our Smart Forex Expert EAs.smiley


Thanks for your inputs. But did you review the results in the attached picture? If a system had had over +35000 trades without blowing up, that means it has a statistical edge over the market right?

SFETrading

Member Since May 11, 2020  8 posts SmartForexExpert (SFETrading) Yesterday at 12:47
Well if a system has had 35000+ trades and still remains positive then it is possible it has a long term edge over the market. The next step would be to put it into live trading and see if it performs similar to the backtest.

Also you should try and backtest and see if the return will also remain positive without having to increase the trade size. A long term profitable strategy should be profitable even if you just use the same lot size for each trade.

Jamesbeau24

Member Since Yesterday at 12:56  1 posts Jamesbeau24 Yesterday at 13:07
kasparsvas16 posted:
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.


Does this use martingale strategy as its main formula ? Should I not buy this EA. Some people say martingale strategies do not last.

mnsr9494

Member Since Jul 12, 2018  8 posts mnsr9494 Yesterday at 14:29
kasparsvas16 posted:
Hi, i was use martingale strategy when i start trading, it is profitable for fast income if you know how to use it.
1. you must withdraw all profit every week.
2. never trade in monday and friday.
3. after every 3 days change ea comment and name, because broker have anti martingail plugins.
4. every time if you deposit like 1000usd after firs earn 1000usd keep it, if you blow account you have money to start again.

p.s. beter find some ea who not use martingaile, but have good money management.
In forex don't exist grail, just if you want mean grail is 5% in year like in bank.


Thank you for your suggestions, I'll make sure to test these assumptions and see if they contribute to the overall profitability over the long term.

mnsr9494

Member Since Jul 12, 2018  8 posts mnsr9494 Yesterday at 14:31
SFETrading posted:
Well if a system has had 35000+ trades and still remains positive then it is possible it has a long term edge over the market. The next step would be to put it into live trading and see if it performs similar to the backtest.

Also you should try and backtest and see if the return will also remain positive without having to increase the trade size. A long term profitable strategy should be profitable even if you just use the same lot size for each trade.


Actually increasing in your lot size as you collect more profits is what will keep you afloat when you get this big drawdowns. But you have to increase it smartly and sensibly.

SFETrading

Member Since May 11, 2020  8 posts SmartForexExpert (SFETrading) Yesterday at 15:04
If a system has a long term edge over the market, then of course increasing the trading size as the account grows will magnify the profit.

What I was trying to say is that some systems seem profitable when they use martingale lot sizes, but they won't actually be profitable using fixed lot. If a system has a real long term edge, then it should also be able to beat the market trading just with fixed lot, without having to rely on increasing the trading lot size to make recovery.

Curtid33

Member Since Oct 01, 2019  14 posts Honest_Fx (Curtid33) 20 Hours ago
I know you've tried a lot, and it almost sounds like you're reaching a point of exhaustion with this. Have you tried trading just once or twice a day on a particular setup? You have 2+ years of trading history, and there are winners there, why not just go back and try to replicate them? If nothing shows, no trade. By doing as close to the same thing everyday, you'll get better and become consistent over time - and you wont have huge losses.

According to this, 37,000+ trades over 5 years. You'd have to open 25-30 trades - a day - no breaks, just to earn ~7% a month. This strategy likely isn't possible. (Also have to consider commission, swap, and avg holding time)

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