EUR/USD

Perhaps, to continue the downward trend in EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs, all that was missing was the appearance of a new monthly candle on the chart. After the recent impressive movement of the dollar to strengthen, finally, there was an equally impressive correction. And if we want to enter the current trend, we are waiting for the best levels to enter. What is the best level to enter the current trend?..? The one that was formed as a result of the rollback. And here it is, this very rollback has occurred, or is currently happening. And for the change of the trend (trend), the reasons are not yet visible.
Why do bulls buy EURUSD and GBPUSD?
Just because prices are low enough? But the trend is more likely to continue than change (one of the postulates of trading on the stock exchange). Yes, prices are low. But if you look at the overall global situation, it seems that the path of least resistance in the main pairs is the South (strengthening of the dollar).
Why?
Let's remember the end of the 2008 crisis. During the long recovery of the world economy, and in particular the economy of the European Union, Italy was in the most deplorable state. However, the crisis subsided, and the country that had just been at the top of the list of the next bankrupts suddenly continued to exist as if nothing had happened.
But now it's time for the next major crisis, and in Europe, the first country to crack the seams is Italy, and Spain is next. The prospects are not rosy for the EU.
In addition, at the height of the pandemic, the once United Europe suddenly distanced itself from its member countries. Without showing any solidarity or signs of unity, each country began to take care only of itself, forgetting all obligations.
When the crisis subsides and countries begin to recover, there will be difficult times for the EU. It is time to test its strength, which, as you can see, is very fragile. You will immediately remember the lack of assistance to each other, there will be reproaches against the participating countries and Brussels, in particular. As an example, they will start to cite the experience of the UK, which, although painful, still leaves the European Union. By the way, it is worth saying that, after leaving Europe, the Bank of England will get its hands on the levers of managing its economy. London's dependence on Brussels will disappear. Other countries in a United Europe may want to follow the example of great Britain. Against the background of the events that have occurred, this is quite likely, and the most realistic scenario.
Why do bears sell EURUSD and GBPUSD?
First, for the reasons described above.
And second, why should the dollar weaken?
Just because the fed is pouring trillions of liquidity into the economy? But the EU does it, and so does Britain...
In addition, the crisis has not been canceled, and the improving situation in China is not yet a reason for risk-taking. We should not forget that the pandemic is still spreading. Countries close not only themselves, but also cities within countries. Emergency measures are being introduced in cities. The consequences for all the world's economies will be astoundingly large.
Buying risky assets (and the Euro and British pound are risky assets in relation to the us dollar) is not a rational decision today.
Well, if you sell, then sell on growth.
And so, this growth (correction\rollback) inside the downward trend was formed.
And that means it's time to sell.