Russian Bonds - Safe to buy ?

Aug 01, 2014 at 18:10
Vues 714
18 Replies
Igor123472
forex_trader_75987
Membre depuis May 02, 2012   posts 117
Aug 01, 2014 at 18:10

Hi everyone,

I was just checking government bonds to invest in.
Russia has one of the most higher yield curve of Bonds of the world.

Look the attached image.

Is it safe for one Investor to invest , i don't know... 1 million USD in Russian Bonds 1Month to withdraw 9.53% of profit?
In a way, the period of time is profitable.

In one single month is a huge profit.

Traders , explain to me if is worthful! 😁
Igor123472
forex_trader_75987
Membre depuis May 02, 2012   posts 117
Aug 01, 2014 at 18:10
Roses are red and violet are blue
myfxpt
forex_trader_43716
Membre depuis Aug 06, 2011   posts 345
Aug 01, 2014 at 22:12
Isn't the Russian economy teetering on the edge of recession? That usually means official interest rates will be lowered to stimulate activity. 😎
Membre depuis Jan 01, 2013   posts 126
Aug 01, 2014 at 22:17
Igor123472 posted:

Hi everyone,

I was just checking government bonds to invest in.
Russia has one of the most higher yield curve of Bonds of the world.

Look the attached image.

Is it safe for one Investor to invest , i don't know... 1 million USD in Russian Bonds 1Month to withdraw 9.53% of profit?
In a way, the period of time is profitable.

In one single month is a huge profit.

Traders , explain to me if is worthful! 😁

How long do you plan to keep the bonds?
Membre depuis Jan 01, 2013   posts 126
Aug 01, 2014 at 22:22
myfxpt posted:
Isn't the Russian economy teetering on the edge of recession? That usually means official interest rates will be lowered to stimulate activity. 😎

not necessarily...
myfxpt
forex_trader_43716
Membre depuis Aug 06, 2011   posts 345
Aug 01, 2014 at 22:33
dchara01 posted:
myfxpt posted:
Isn't the Russian economy teetering on the edge of recession? That usually means official interest rates will be lowered to stimulate activity. 😎

not necessarily...

Not necessarily heading into recession? Or interest rates are not necessarily lowered to stimulate economic activity? 😎
Membre depuis Jan 01, 2013   posts 126
Aug 01, 2014 at 22:49
they won't necessarily lower their rates to stimulate their economy.
myfxpt
forex_trader_43716
Membre depuis Aug 06, 2011   posts 345
Aug 01, 2014 at 22:52
dchara01 posted:
they won't necessarily lower their rates to stimulate their economy.

We'll just have to wait and see...cheers! 😎
Membre depuis Jan 01, 2013   posts 126
Aug 01, 2014 at 22:59
myfxpt posted:
dchara01 posted:
they won't necessarily lower their rates to stimulate their economy.

We'll just have to wait and see...cheers! 😎

as always :)
Membre depuis Jun 09, 2013   posts 92
Aug 09, 2014 at 17:12
Stay away from dealing with Russian currency bonds or whatever, it's the best solution for now.
Totally unsafe...
Stable 20% per month without manual intervention...
Igor123472
forex_trader_75987
Membre depuis May 02, 2012   posts 117
Aug 10, 2014 at 06:49
TheFX4You posted:
Stay away from dealing with Russian currency bonds or whatever, it's the best solution for now.
Totally unsafe...

why @TheFX4You ? what did make you think about ?
forex_trader_136673
Membre depuis Jun 28, 2013   posts 852
Aug 11, 2014 at 13:58 (édité Aug 11, 2014 at 14:01)
Igor123472 posted:

Hi everyone,

I was just checking government bonds to invest in.
Russia has one of the most higher yield curve of Bonds of the world.

Look the attached image.

Is it safe for one Investor to invest , i don't know... 1 million USD in Russian Bonds 1Month to withdraw 9.53% of profit?
In a way, the period of time is profitable.

In one single month is a huge profit.

Traders , explain to me if is worthful! 😁


Igor yield is yearly, not monthly. You will not het a huge profit but 1/12 of that. Not 9.73% but 0.79%.


You have to be careful before investing 1M.
Igor123472
forex_trader_75987
Membre depuis May 02, 2012   posts 117
Aug 11, 2014 at 14:43
ahuruglica posted:
Igor123472 posted:

Hi everyone,

I was just checking government bonds to invest in.
Russia has one of the most higher yield curve of Bonds of the world.

Look the attached image.

Is it safe for one Investor to invest , i don't know... 1 million USD in Russian Bonds 1Month to withdraw 9.53% of profit?
In a way, the period of time is profitable.

In one single month is a huge profit.

Traders , explain to me if is worthful! 😁


Igor yield is yearly, not monthly. You will not het a huge profit but 1/12 of that. Not 9.73% but 0.79%.


You have to be careful before investing 1M.


mhm, interesting... so, i thought that bonds is a safe way to get fixed income.

@ahuruglica , do you think that invest in saving bank deposits worth a try? To profit 18% per year ?


forex_trader_136673
Membre depuis Jun 28, 2013   posts 852
Aug 11, 2014 at 15:13
I come from a country that 15 years ago was liberated by war. I also belong to banking sector. Even after the war, and with a fragile banking sector, highest term deposit yield was 6.6% and currently are around 1.5%.


Banks increase interest to attract investors, and lower them if there is no need for new funds. It's a free market. I don't know which bank, or which country, but I smell trouble.
Membre depuis Jun 09, 2013   posts 92
Aug 11, 2014 at 17:52
Igor123472 posted:
TheFX4You posted:
Stay away from dealing with Russian currency bonds or whatever, it's the best solution for now.
Totally unsafe...

why @TheFX4You ? what did make you think about ?


Have you heard about all this economical sanctions??
It will bring huge affect also to the markets.
 
Stable 20% per month without manual intervention...
Membre depuis Jan 30, 2013   posts 136
Sep 09, 2014 at 07:26
you can go here and buy treasury bills, bonds or notes directly: https://treasurydirect.gov/

but the idea of having bonds is that you want some diversification of your investments. its not a primordial investment or the only one one should have.
Who Dares WIns
Membre depuis Jan 16, 2014   posts 416
Sep 09, 2014 at 10:58
I am not sure about russian bonds but russian stocks become more and more attractive.
forex_trader_136673
Membre depuis Jun 28, 2013   posts 852
Sep 09, 2014 at 16:23
Let's set politics aside and talk about risks.

Sometimes for some investors high bond yields are very compelling to invest. But unfortunately, higher yields also means higher risks. Countries that pay high yields means they are having difficulties on finding investors to buy their bonds. There are a lot of risks involved, but in Russian case the risks are clear. It's all about current geo-political uncertainties.
Lets compare some different 1 year bonds high to low: (real data from investing.com

Ukraine 20%
Uganda 11.40%
Turkey 9.05%
Russia 8.52%
....
United Kingdom 0.55%
Switzerland 0.05%
United States 0.09%
France -0.03%
Germany -0.08%

By comparing the table above the investors are requesting Ukraine 20% for their money, from Russia 8.52% while they will pay Germany 0.08% to keep their money. Interest rates are linked to risks, and investors often are ready to pay someone just to keep their money safe (France and Germany on this case).

On the long run, if yields remain high it will become a burden to the country. A lot of tax payer money will go to paying interest. High yields will lead to deflation (the country will be forced to print more money) or even bankruptcy. It was not a long time ago since last Russian bankruptcy, only 15 years ago.

Of course it is not safe to buy Russian bonds. As a matter of fact, there is no safe bet. It's just different levels of risks. There is a golden rule to investing: 'If you want to make money you have to take risks'.
Membre depuis Feb 04, 2013   posts 1
Sep 10, 2014 at 06:31
It's better yo buy RUB with leverage. You ll have + swap values...
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