Russian Bonds - Safe to buy ?

Hi everyone,

I was just checking government bonds to invest in.
Russia has one of the most higher yield curve of Bonds of the world.

Look the attached image.

Is it safe for one Investor to invest , i don't know... 1 million USD in Russian Bonds 1Month to withdraw 9.53% of profit?
In a way, the period of time is profitable.

In one single month is a huge profit.

Traders , explain to me if is worthful! 😁

Roses are red and violet are blue

Isn't the Russian economy teetering on the edge of recession? That usually means official interest rates will be lowered to stimulate activity. 😎

Igor123472 posted:

Hi everyone,

I was just checking government bonds to invest in.
Russia has one of the most higher yield curve of Bonds of the world.

Look the attached image.

Is it safe for one Investor to invest , i don't know... 1 million USD in Russian Bonds 1Month to withdraw 9.53% of profit?
In a way, the period of time is profitable.

In one single month is a huge profit.

Traders , explain to me if is worthful! 😁

How long do you plan to keep the bonds?

myfxpt posted:
Isn't the Russian economy teetering on the edge of recession? That usually means official interest rates will be lowered to stimulate activity. 😎

not necessarily...

dchara01 posted:

myfxpt posted:
Isn't the Russian economy teetering on the edge of recession? That usually means official interest rates will be lowered to stimulate activity. 😎

not necessarily...

Not necessarily heading into recession? Or interest rates are not necessarily lowered to stimulate economic activity? 😎

they won't necessarily lower their rates to stimulate their economy.

dchara01 posted:
they won't necessarily lower their rates to stimulate their economy.

We'll just have to wait and see...cheers! 😎

myfxpt posted:

dchara01 posted:
they won't necessarily lower their rates to stimulate their economy.

We'll just have to wait and see...cheers! 😎

as always :)

Stay away from dealing with Russian currency bonds or whatever, it's the best solution for now.
Totally unsafe...

TheFX4You posted:
Stay away from dealing with Russian currency bonds or whatever, it's the best solution for now.
Totally unsafe...

why @TheFX4You ? what did make you think about ?

Igor123472 posted:

Hi everyone,

I was just checking government bonds to invest in.
Russia has one of the most higher yield curve of Bonds of the world.

Look the attached image.

Is it safe for one Investor to invest , i don't know... 1 million USD in Russian Bonds 1Month to withdraw 9.53% of profit?
In a way, the period of time is profitable.

In one single month is a huge profit.

Traders , explain to me if is worthful! 😁

Igor yield is yearly, not monthly. You will not het a huge profit but 1/12 of that. Not 9.73% but 0.79%.


You have to be careful before investing 1M.

ahuruglica posted:

Igor123472 posted:

Hi everyone,

I was just checking government bonds to invest in.
Russia has one of the most higher yield curve of Bonds of the world.

Look the attached image.

Is it safe for one Investor to invest , i don't know... 1 million USD in Russian Bonds 1Month to withdraw 9.53% of profit?
In a way, the period of time is profitable.

In one single month is a huge profit.

Traders , explain to me if is worthful! 😁

Igor yield is yearly, not monthly. You will not het a huge profit but 1/12 of that. Not 9.73% but 0.79%.


You have to be careful before investing 1M.

mhm, interesting... so, i thought that bonds is a safe way to get fixed income.

@ahuruglica , do you think that invest in saving bank deposits worth a try? To profit 18% per year ?

I come from a country that 15 years ago was liberated by war. I also belong to banking sector. Even after the war, and with a fragile banking sector, highest term deposit yield was 6.6% and currently are around 1.5%.


Banks increase interest to attract investors, and lower them if there is no need for new funds. It's a free market. I don't know which bank, or which country, but I smell trouble.

Igor123472 posted:

TheFX4You posted:
Stay away from dealing with Russian currency bonds or whatever, it's the best solution for now.
Totally unsafe...

why @TheFX4You ? what did make you think about ?

Have you heard about all this economical sanctions??
It will bring huge affect also to the markets.
 

you can go here and buy treasury bills, bonds or notes directly: https://treasurydirect.gov/

but the idea of having bonds is that you want some diversification of your investments. its not a primordial investment or the only one one should have.

I am not sure about russian bonds but russian stocks become more and more attractive.

Let's set politics aside and talk about risks.

Sometimes for some investors high bond yields are very compelling to invest. But unfortunately, higher yields also means higher risks. Countries that pay high yields means they are having difficulties on finding investors to buy their bonds. There are a lot of risks involved, but in Russian case the risks are clear. It's all about current geo-political uncertainties.
Lets compare some different 1 year bonds high to low: (real data from investing.com

Ukraine 20%
Uganda 11.40%
Turkey 9.05%
Russia 8.52%
....
United Kingdom 0.55%
Switzerland 0.05%
United States 0.09%
France -0.03%
Germany -0.08%

By comparing the table above the investors are requesting Ukraine 20% for their money, from Russia 8.52% while they will pay Germany 0.08% to keep their money. Interest rates are linked to risks, and investors often are ready to pay someone just to keep their money safe (France and Germany on this case).

On the long run, if yields remain high it will become a burden to the country. A lot of tax payer money will go to paying interest. High yields will lead to deflation (the country will be forced to print more money) or even bankruptcy. It was not a long time ago since last Russian bankruptcy, only 15 years ago.

Of course it is not safe to buy Russian bonds. As a matter of fact, there is no safe bet. It's just different levels of risks. There is a golden rule to investing: 'If you want to make money you have to take risks'.