Discussion Trend Reversal Algorithmic System for Maximum Risk Reward Ratio (Re-Posted 10-7-2015)

Canada released its best employment report in four months, posting a better-than-expected increase of 44,000 jobs and a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate to 7%. Canada has gained 143,000 jobs compared to a year earlier and best of all, they were all full-time.

Unfortunately, this report was overshadowed by the US NFP report but should serve to slow Canadian dollar losses.

Europe is becoming the latest battleground for oil producers seeking to maintain market share amid a global oversupply. Russia has protested Saudi sales to northern Europe, while also expanding its own share of Asian markets that were typically dominated by Middle Eastern producers. Iran will intensify competition next year as it seeks to regain lost customers following a nuclear deal with world powers that will lift sanctions.

Investors sharply lifted bets that the central bank will raise the benchmark rate at its Dec. 15-16 meeting after news that employers added 271,000 workers to payrolls, the biggest gain this year. The challenge will be reining in any expectations of a faster pace of tightening than Fed officials themselves foresee.

The USD has gotten a boost versus major, with only commodity pairs aided by the surge in oil prices able to resist the rise of the greenback.

The FOMC statement and Chair Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday have made an interest rate hike in December a live possibility.

Economic data has been positive overall. A narrower trade deficit than expected and impressive non-manufacturing PMI results have validated the Fed’s comments even as the ADP private payrolls and unemployment claims slightly missed expectations ahead of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

The NFP is the biggest indicator in forex and is forecasted to show 179,000 new jobs. The convergence of a hawkish Fed that has marked December as a possibility and a strong NFP could result in the arrival of the much-awaited interest rate hike.

UNDERSTANDING THE U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT
 
Published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the NFP report includes the total number of workers (excluding certain industries) that are added to the U.S. economy on a monthly basis.

It is published the first Friday of every month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Of note, it affects all major currency pairs by ratcheting up FX market volatility.

Blessings!
could you share how you got your OANDA Mt4.0 to update as myfxbook display. Been trying to have it set up with no success, Just pending. I have other accounts from another broker and those are set up easily and no such challenges as with OANDA MT4.0.
Thank you kindly. Impressive statistics.

Hi IvestServant.

I usually just keep the MT4 platform on 24 hours a day during market hours. I honestly cannot say that this works all the time, sometimes myFXbook drops data and there is a huge delay in the updates - sometimes this lasts weeks. myFXbook, even though it is quite seamless, have quite many bugs and I haven't been able to reach the guys running the website yet, no response from them. I'm just counting my blessings that the statements now are updated in real time.

Good luck,
Tom

This account is no longer updated. Has been blown?

This account is still live, active, and being updated. It has updated today. I'm not really sure what you are talking about.

A day ahead of the release of the U.S. retail sales figures six Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members delivered speeches that were seen as hawkish, dovish and something in between. The market expectation as measured by the CME FedWatch tool puts the rate hike at 69.8 percent probability but as usual Fed members comments confused markets more than reassured them on the final outcome on December 16.

U.S. retail sales and the core data excluding automobiles have underperformed since coming in flat in August. Consumer demand is needed for sustained growth and outside of car sales the other sectors are struggling. The forecast calls for a 0.4 percent core retail sales change and a 0.3 percent of retail sales in October.

Lower prices in food and energy have affected the overall positive demand, but a turnaround is expected in the coming holiday season. Strong core retail sales could put the Fed one step closer to finally raising benchmark interest rates, but a weak indicator would raise further questions about the American economy's momentum after a strong jobs report. U.S. retail sales will be published on Friday November 13 at 8:30 am EST.

The International Monetary Fund's decision to bestow reserve-currency status on China's yuan marks a major economic milestone for the emerging world power that will likely accelerate global demand for Chinese assets.


By adding the yuan to the basket of elite currencies comprising the IMF's lending instrument--the dollar, yen, euro and pound--the global powers that govern the fund will be acknowledging the strength and international reach of the world's No. 2 economy.


But don't expect the yuan--engraved with a portrait of China's Communist founding father, Mao Zedong--to dethrone the U.S. dollar anytime soon. China's largely closed markets and questions about the country's political, legal and economic institutions will likely constrain international use of the yuan for years to come.