ATFX Market Outlook 10th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 10th June 2025

U.S. Stocks and Gold Lose Upward Momentum. Oil Rally on US-China Trade HopesMarket HighlightU.S. stocks were mixed, with the S&P 500 slightly higher, boosted by Amazon and Alphabet, while the Dow was flat and Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Treasury yields declined slightly, and the dollar weakened after strong employment data. 

U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly, and the dollar weakened against most major currencies on Monday, fluctuating in a narrow range, as market participants consolidated their gains after the release of the better-than-expected U.S. employment report last Friday and turned their focus to the crucial Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations held in London to wait for progress.

Gold rose 0.5% to $3,327 amid cautious optimism over US-China trade talks, while oil prices hit a two-month high on a weaker dollar and hopes for a positive trade resolution.

Key Outlook

US-China trade talks in London continue into their second day, keeping markets watchful. In Europe, the focus is on the UK employment report, with unemployment expected to rise to 4.6%, the highest in nearly four years. A continued slowdown could lead the Bank of England to maintain its rate-cutting stance.

Key Data and Events Today:

European Trading Session, US-China Trade Talks

14:00 GB Unemployment Rate APR **

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index MAY **

Tomorrow

04:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock ***

07:50 JP PPI YoY MAY ** 

20:30 US Core CPI YoY MAY *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1469/1.1501

· Support: 1.1388/1.1363

The EUR/USD rose on Monday during the U.S. session, buoyed by positive U.S.-China trade talks and a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank (ECB). It surpassed 1.1400, climbing to over 0.25%. The pair continues at an uptrend, characterised by higher highs and lows, but requires a daily close above 1.14 to target 1.1469 and beyond. Suppose it drops below 1.14, support lies at 1.1388, followed by 1.1363 and 1.1318.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3593/1.3614

· Support: 1.3524/1.3502

The GBP/USD remained near 1.3550 on Monday, with markets cautious ahead of UK and US data, as well as ongoing US-China trade talks. Investors hope for a détente to ease tariffs. UK jobs data, due to be released on Tuesday, may show easing earnings growth and rising unemployment claims. The pair remains bullish above 1.3500, holding steady near recent highs.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 144.79/145.25

· Support: 144.33/143.86

The USD/JPY remains soft, struggling to capitalise on Monday’s bounce, as rising BoJ rate hike bets and a cautious US outlook weigh it down. It stays above 144, with support at 144 and resistance at 145. A break below 144 could target 143.86, while a move above 145 might push the price toward 145.25 or higher, depending on developments in US-China trade.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 66.30/66.68

· Support: 64.67/64.30

Crude oil prices reached seven-week highs above $64, driven by hopes for strong summer demand and improved US-China trade talks. Traders expect Chinese demand to rebound, but OPEC’s increased production raises concerns about oversupply. Prices are limited by technical resistance near $68, and a decline could test support around $62.80. Overall, markets remain cautious despite the rally.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3343/3366

· Support: 3287/3269

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.89/37.37

· Support: 35.92/35.31

Gold (XAU/USD) rose modestly near $3,325 on Tuesday, boosted by a weaker US dollar amid ongoing US-China trade talks. The discussions in London aim to ease tech export restrictions and rare earth shipment limits, but positive results could weigh on gold. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also support demand for safe havens. Additionally, China’s central bank bought gold for the seventh straight month, supporting prices. Attention now turns to $3,287 and $3,269 as near-term support if the gold price breaches $3,300.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43194/43417

· Support: 42451/42275

U.S. futures were flat Monday evening as trade talks in London and inflation data ahead kept investors cautious. Tech stocks gained on hopes of eased U.S.-China restrictions. The Dow neared 43,000, but overbought signals suggest a pause. Inflation data on Wednesday may add volatility.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21920/22003

· Support: 21651/21567

Most large tech stocks rose on Monday, led by Tesla’s 4% gain. The Nasdaq remained near its February high, consolidating as bulls await a breakout. Support is around 21,700, with resistance above last week’s high of 21,900.

 BTC

· Resistance: 112035/113287

· Support: 108072/106841

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose for the fourth consecutive day, recovering from last week's dip above $ 100,000, boosted by optimism over US-China trade talks. It gained over 1.5%, surpassing key Fibonacci levels and supporting a bullish outlook. On Monday, the BTC surged 4% after a false claim that Paraguay would adopt BTC as legal tender. Investors should watch for a potential price correction, likely to occur during the day. A daily close above $110,000 is required to target $112,035 and $113,287. 

Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please ensure that you understand the risk.

ATFX is a leading global fintech broker with a local presence in 24 locations and holds 9 licenses from regulatory authorities, including the UK's FCA, Australia's ASIC, Cyprus' CySEC, the UAE's SCA, Hong Kong's SFC, South Africa's FSCA, Mauritius' FSC, Seychelles' FSA, and Cambodia's SERC. With a strong commitment to customer satisfaction, innovative technology, and strict regulatory compliance, ATFX delivers exceptional trading experiences to clients worldwide.