ATFX Market Outlook 11th September 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 11th September 2025

Wall Street Soars on Softer PPI, All Eyes on Tonight’s CPI Test

Market HighlightU.S. producer prices unexpectedly declined in August, suggesting retailers may be absorbing tariff costs. Wall Street rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs on Wednesday. Oracle surged 36%, its biggest one-day gain since 1992, while lower-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. The Dow slipped 0.48%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.03%.

In FX, markets moved into wait-and-see mode. The U.S. Dollar traded in a narrow range after the softer PPI print reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut this month. USD/JPY inched up 0.04% by the close, EUR/USD dipped 0.11% to 1.1693, while GBP/USD was flat at 1.3528.

Gold hovered near record highs, supported by Fed easing expectations, with spot prices up 0.39% to $3,640.39/oz. Oil prices climbed over $1 per barrel as investors worried about potential supply disruptions after Poland shot down a drone in its airspace and the U.S. pushed for new sanctions on Russian oil buyers, though a U.S. inventory build capped gains.

Key Outlook

All eyes now turn to U.S. CPI data due tonight—the last key release before the Fed’s September meeting. Markets expect August headline CPI at 2.9% YoY (vs. 2.7% prior), with core CPI holding at 3.1%. This suggests tariffs continue to add upward pressure but are unlikely to block rate cuts. Meanwhile, the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, with focus on whether policymakers signal an end to easing and update their growth and inflation forecasts.

Key Data and Events Today:

16:00 IEA Monthly Report **  

18:00 OPEC Monthly Report **

20:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision *** 

20:30 US CPI YoY AUG ***  

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:45 ECB Press Conference *** 

Tomorrow:

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI YoY Final AUG **

14:00 GB GDP MoM JUL ***  

14:00 GB Industrial Production MoM JUL ** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel SEP **

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1739/1.1760

· Support: 1.1651/1.1631

EUR/USD held near 1.1700 as softer US PPI (2.6% YoY, core 2.8%) reinforced Fed cut bets. Focus shifts to Thursday’s CPI (expected 2.9%) and the ECB meeting. Technically, price is supported by the rising trendline near 1.1651, while resistance stands at 1.1739 – a break above could open the way toward 1.18, but failure to hold support risks a deeper pullback.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3602/1.3635

· Support: 1.3466/1.3440

GBP/USD tested 1.3550 for the fourth session but remains capped, as softer US PPI (core 2.8% YoY vs 3.5% prior) fueled Fed cut bets. Thursday’s CPI (expected 2.9% headline, 3.1% core) could sway the easing outlook. Technically, price holds above trendline support at 1.3466, with resistance at 1.3602; a break higher may open room toward 1.37, while failure risks a deeper pullback.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.05/148.39

· Support: 146.97/146.64

USD/JPY slipped to 147.31 after softer US PPI reinforced Fed cut bets, though geopolitical tensions (Polish airspace drone, Israel airstrike) capped yen strength. Technically, prices consolidate above 146.97 support with a demand zone highlighted; holding this level could trigger a rebound toward 148.05 and trendline resistance, while a breakdown risks deeper losses.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 64.28/64.82

· Support: 63.21/62.54

WTI settled at $63.67/bbl, supported by geopolitical risks after Poland intercepted a drone and fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil buyers, though a +3.9M bbl inventory build capped upside. Technically, price is holding above $63.21 support and the rising trendline; a bounce here could fuel a push toward $64.28 resistance, while a breakdown risks a slide back to $62 levels.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3674/3698

· Support: 3626/3596

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 41.67/42.21

· Support: 40.56/39.88

Gold trades near $3,648/oz, supported by strong Fed cut bets (90% probability). Markets now await U.S. CPI (expected 2.9% headline, 3.1% core) for policy confirmation. Technically, price is consolidating between $3,626 support and the descending trendline. A break higher could target $3,674, while failure risks a pullback below $3,626.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45841/46023

· Support: 45250/45065

The Dow Futures slipped 0.48% to 45,490.92, dragged by consumer stocks, though sentiment held firm on Fed cut bets. Markets remain focused on Thursday’s CPI release for confirmation. Technically, US30 trades between 45,250 support and 45,841 resistance. A bounce from support could re-target the upper range, while a breakdown risks deeper retracement below 45,250.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23969/24085

· Support: 23704/23586

The NAS100 inched up 0.03% to a fresh record high, lifted by Oracle’s +36% rally and ongoing AI-driven optimism. Fed cut bets added support, but CPI tonight remains the key risk event. Technically, the index trades between 23,704 support and 23,969 resistance. Holding above support could sustain bullish momentum toward new highs, while a break below risks a deeper pullback.

BTC

· Resistance: 115919/117421

· Support: 111150/ 109668

Bitcoin climbed to around $114,000 as softer US PPI (2.6% YoY) bolstered Fed rate cut bets for next week. Technically, BTC is holding above the rising trendline and reclaimed the 113,000 support zone, with potential to test 115,919 resistance, though it remains range-bound overall.

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