ATFX Market Outlook 20th August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 20th August 2025

Markets on Edge: 50% Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Hit, Fed Minutes in Focus

Market HighlightThe U.S. increased tariffs on 407 products, with steel and aluminium duties reaching as high as 50%. U.S. equities declined on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 pushed lower by technology shares, while investors looked ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week at the central bank’s annual symposium. 

Dow Jones rose 0.02%, the S&P 500 fell 0.59%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.46%. The U.S. dollar traded mixed against major currencies as traders awaited more clues on interest rate policy from the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium later this week. The dollar index increased 0.15% to 98.27. EUR/USD declined 0.12% to 1.1646, USD/JPY slipped 0.22% to 147.54, and GBP/USD fell 0.16% to 1.3480. 

Gold prices softened as the dollar strengthened, with investors hesitating ahead of Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Spot gold decreased 0.5% to $3,315.18 per ounce after reaching its lowest level since August 1 in early trading. Oil prices declined as traders speculated that potential negotiations to either legitimise Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or end the war could ease sanctions on Russian crude, thereby increasing global supply. Key Outlook Today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its rate decision. Weak labour market data, subdued inflation expectations, and slowing wage growth have led markets to price in a possible 25 basis-point cut. During the European session, focus will shift to CPI reports from the UK and Eurozone, with UK July CPI expected to slow to -0.1% (previous 0.3%) and Eurozone July CPI projected to remain at 2%. Early Thursday, the Fed will release meeting minutes, which markets will scrutinise for clues on internal rate-cut views, widely seen as a precursor to Powell’s key speech on Friday.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 EU GERMANY PPI MoM JUL **  

14:00 GB CPI YoY JUL **  

17:00 EU CPI MoM Final JUL ** 

22:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change **  

Tomorrow:

NYMEX Crude Oil September Futures Expires ***

Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium ***  

02:00 FOMC Minutes ***  

08:30 JP Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG **

15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG ** 

16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG **  

16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG *** 

22:00 US Existing Home Sales JUL ** 

22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM JUL ** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1730/1.1789

· Support: 1.1589/1.1542

EUR/USD trades near 1.1646, steady ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with markets split between a 25bps cut or hold. Peace talks hopes to support the Euro, but a firm USD Index at 98.27 caps gains. Technically, a break below the uptrend line points to further downside toward 1.1589 support.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3590/1.3642

· Support: 1.3471/1.3418

GBP/USD slipped below 1.3500 on Tuesday as traders await today’s UK CPI and Fed meeting minutes, with focus also on PMI data and the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. Key support lies near 1.3471–1.3418; holding above could see a rebound toward 1.3590, while a break lower risks 1.3370.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 148.38/148.98

· Support: 147.19/146.60

USD/JPY stayed rangebound around 147.6 on Tuesday, failing to break above the 20-day SMA, with traders awaiting Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Key resistance is at 148.38; a breakout may target 148.98, while support sits at 147.19–146.60, and a downside break could open the path toward the 50-day SMA.

US Crude Oil Futures (SEP)

· Resistance: 63.31/64.01

· Support: 61.10/60.40

WTI crude traded near $62 in early Asia, pressured by prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal after Trump–Zelenskiy talks, which could ease sanctions and boost supply. Still, the downside was cushioned as API data showed US crude inventories fell 2.4 million barrels last week, signalling stronger demand. Key levels of resistance at $63.31, and support at $61.10.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3338/3355

· Support: 3305/3289

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.76/38.13

· Support: 37.17/36.87

Gold is 2025’s top-performing asset with a 28% YTD gain, supported by central bank demand, de-dollarization flows, and Fed policy uncertainty. UBS expects spot prices to reach $3,500 by year-end, with further upside into 2026. Technically, XAU/USD trades below a descending trendline, facing resistance at $3,338, while support sits at $3,305; a rebound may extend gains back to $3,338 resistance.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45064/45248

· Support: 44659/44481

The Dow Futures retreated after testing the 45,000 level, pressured by fading AI momentum and weak earnings from Home Depot, while Nvidia fell over 3%. Investors await PMI data and Fed signals for direction. Technically, it faces resistance near 45,064 and support at 44,659; a break lower may open room toward 44,481

NAS100

· Resistance: 23665/23821

· Support: 23170/23018

NAS100 fell 1.46% to 21,314.95, weighed by mega-cap techs as Nvidia slid 3.5%, its sharpest drop in four months. Technically, NAS100 faces resistance at 23,665, with support at 23,170; a breakdown could open the path toward 23,018.

BTC

· Resistance: 115247/116733

· Support: 111923/ 110462

Bitcoin hovered near $115,600 after briefly dipping below $115,000. Price broke the rising trendline and now faces resistance at $115,247. Investors remain cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, while uncertainty from Trump–Zelenskiy talks with Europe adds pressure on risk sentiment. 

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