ATFX ​Market Outlook 21st August 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 21st August 2025

Markets Eye Jackson Hole: ISM PMI in Focus

Market HighlightThe FOMC minutes revealed that only two Fed policymakers supported a rate cut in September. U.S. equities fell on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 pressured by a tech selloff as investors rotated into lower-valued sectors, while awaiting comments from Fed officials at the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. The Dow edged up 0.04%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.24%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.67%.

U.S. Treasury yields eased modestly within range, while the U.S. Dollar weakened after President Trump called for Fed Governor Cook to resign. The Dollar Index slipped 0.13% to 98.20; EUR/USD rose 0.09% to 1.1657; USD/JPY fell 0.32% to 147.2.

Gold prices climbed as the Dollar weakened, with investors positioning ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes showed only two members favored a rate cut at the July meeting. Spot gold rose 1.0% to $3,346.75/oz. Oil prices advanced after U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected last week, while investors await further developments in talks over the Ukraine war, with Russian crude remaining under sanctions.

Key Outlook

The Jackson Hole symposium opens today, with markets awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech tomorrow. Key August flash PMIs will be released: Eurozone (49.5 vs. 49.8), UK (48.3 vs. 48), and U.S. ISM manufacturing (49.5 vs. 49.8), with further weakness signaling growth risks. Services PMIs are expected to stay near expansion but may show slowing momentum.

Key Data and Events Today:

Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium ***  

15:30 EU GERMANY Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG ** 

16:00 EU Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG **  

16:30 GB Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

21:45 US Manufacturing PMI Flash AUG *** 

22:00 US Existing Home Sales JUL ** 

22:00 US CB Leading Index MoM JUL **

Tomorrow:

07:30 JP CPI YoY JUL **  

14:00 EU GERMANY GDP QoQ Final Q2 ** 

14:00 GB Retail Sales MoM JUL ** 

20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM JUN **  

22:00 Fed Chair Powell Speech ***

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1730/1.1789

· Support: 1.1589/1.1542

EUR/USD trades near 1.1660, capped by hawkish Fed Minutes and Trump’s pressure on the Fed, while Eurozone inflation holds at 2%. Focus shifts to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and U.S. ISM PMI. Technically, resistance is at 1.1730 and support at 1.1589; a breakout will decide the next trend.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3523/1.3590

· Support: 1.3418/1.3364

GBP/USD extended its decline for a third day, pressured by hot UK CPI data that dampened BoE rate cut bets. Attention now turns to PMI releases and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Technically, the pair is capped below 1.3523 resistance and risks extending lower toward 1.3418 support if selling persists.

USDJPY

  Resistance: 147.78/148.38

· Support: 146.60/145.85

USD/JPY extended its pullback for a third day, pressured by political noise over Fed independence and ahead of Jackson Hole. The pair capped below 147.78 resistance. A hawkish Powell could lift the pair above 147.78–148.38, while a dovish signal risks a break under 146.60 and 145.85 support.

US Crude Oil Futures (OCT)

· Resistance: 63.32/64.01

· Support: 61.78/61.09

Oil prices rebounded 2% as U.S. crude inventories dropped by 6 million barrels, well above forecasts, with Brent at $66.84 and WTI at $63.21. Optimism over Ukraine peace talks capped gains, while sanctions on Russian oil and India’s continued purchases added supply uncertainty. Technically, WTI faces resistance at 63.32; a breakout may continue to go bullish. Failure could see a pullback toward 61.78–61.09 support.

Spot Gold

  Resistance: 3376/3393

· Support: 3305/3289

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 38.13/38.43

· Support: 37.17/36.87

Gold rose to $3,348 as risk-off sentiment lent support, though dollar strength capped gains ahead of Fed minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Markets still price at 84% chance of a 25bp cut, but divisions keep the outlook uncertain. Technically, resistance stands at $3,376, breakout may target $3,393; failure could trigger a pullback to $3,305–$3,289.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 45064/45248

· Support: 44659/44481

The Dow Jones inched up 0.04% to 44,938.31, supported by gains in energy and healthcare. Investors await Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for policy cues. Technically, resistance is seen at 45,064; a breakout could extend gains, while support lies at 44,659, and a break below may trigger deeper downside.

NAS100

· Resistance: 23476/23665

· Support: 23018/22867

NAS100 fell 0.67% to 21,172.86 as tech stocks retreated on valuation concerns and AI bubble warnings. Traders remain cautious ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Technically, support lies at 23,018 with an ascending trendline; holding above may pave the way toward 23,476 resistance, while a break below risks deeper downside.

BTC

· Resistance: 116733/118219

· Support: 111923/ 110462

Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $112,870, hitting a two-week low as traders trimmed positions ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and eyed potential Russia-Ukraine talks. Hot U.S. data last week cooled expectations of a larger Fed rate cut, adding pressure. Technically, BTC faces resistance at 116,733 – 118,219, while key support lies at $111,923; a break below could trigger deeper losses, but holding above may fuel a rebound.

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