ATFX Market Outlook 6th December 2024 

ATFX Market Outlook 6th December 2024 

Gold loses ground  as traders await US Nonfarm Payrolls

The dollar weakened against major currencies, down about 0.4%, leaving the euro up 0.7% at $1.058. The euro was down 0.05% at $1.0582 after bouncing on Thursday as French bonds stabilised, pulling further away from a two-year low of $1.03315 hit at the end of November as traders braced for a drawn-out reckoning for France.

Gold retreats on Thursday as US yields jump as traders await US Nonfarm Payrolls. Oil prices were steady on Thursday as investors weighed an ample supply outlook for next year against OPEC+ delaying its increase by three months to April 2025.

The spotlight will be on the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November today. Economists predict an increase in nonfarm payroll employment of 215,000 in November. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. Despite the rebound in job growth, Federal Reserve is still expected to announce an interest-rate cut on Dec. 18. Markets continue pricing in a 73% probability of a Dec Fed rate reduction.

[Financial data and events of significant concern]

21:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls NOV ***

23:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel DEC ***

Key Data and Events Ahead Next Week:

RBA, BoC, ECB and SNB Interest Rate Decision

OPEC Monthly Outlook Report and US CPI on Wednesday

EURUSD

1.0629/1.0661 Resistance

1.0535/1.0496 Support

EURUSD rose on Thursday as French bonds stabilised，but still on track to post a loss this week, the fourth in the last five weeks. On the technical side, EURUSD broke above the 20-day moving average for the first time in a month, cleared short-term resistance levels near 1.0550, with eyes set above the 1.0600 area.

GBPUSD

1.2806/1.2832 Resistance

1.2716/1.2681 Support

GBP/USD climbed on Tuesday, bolstered by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey tipping his hand and revealing a path forward to further rate cuts in 2025. As GBP/USD managed to reclaim 1.2750, may challenge key technical levels above 1.2800.

USDJPY

150.69/151.08 Resistance

149.02/148.63 Support

Traders are pondering the likelihood of a rate hike at the Bank of Japan's meeting on Dec. 18-19 after media reports published on Wednesday suggested the BOJ may stand pat this month, muddling market expectations. USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 149, break of 150 will revive the near term bullishness.

USDCAD

1.4053/1.4077 Resistance

1.4000/1.3977 Support

USD/CAD briefly exceeding 1.4030 in Friday’s early Asian session. The market is still waiting for the US NFP before picking a direction, may see a minor resistance zone around the 1.4050 level. On the downside, if unable to hold above the daily moving averages, may present a break below last week's low at 1.3980.

US crude oil futures (JAN)

68.75/69.09 Resistance

67.67/67.35 Support

OPEC+ delays oil output hike until April, extends cuts into 2026 , however, Crude oil established a new lower swing low on Thursday. After falling for two days, failing to hold the daily moving averages indicates downward pressure, but the trend line from early November may act as support.

Spot Gold

2649/2663 Resistance

2605/2591 Support

Spot Silver

31.23/31.33 Resistance

30.77/30.68 Support

Gold price drops overnight as rising US Treasury yields diminish its appeal amidst uncertain Fed actions, remains confined in a tight range between two key technical barriers, capped by daily moving averages. Markets will pay close attention to NFP reports, to seek for short term direction.

Dow Futures

45074/45250 Resistance

44481/44254 Support

U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, pausing a record-breaking rally in advance of Friday's monthly jobs report. Dow Futures lost grounds overnight as UnitedHealth Stock Underperforming the market sentiment. On the technical side, Dow is approaching the 10-day moving average, if supported, may rebound to the higher ranges above 45000.

NAS100

21615/21717 Resistance

21282/21181 Support

The Nasdaq 100 inch lower overnight after surged to a new high on Wednesday, but still hovering around the record high, shows no sign of a reversal for now. As spotlight shifts to US non-farm payrolls data, NAS100 may stage rebound if Fed's another rate cut in December will be confirmed.

BTC

98717/100613 Resistance

95651/94118 Support

Bitcoin took a breather after catapulting above $100,000 for the first time a day earlier, and even sceptics now expect a crypto-friendly Trump administration to feed an extended rally. On the technical side, the primary moving average on the daily chart provided a foundation of support, may trigger buying interest above $98000.

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