Aussie Rebounds, Dollar Dips Amid Tensions | 17th June, 2025

Aussie Rebounds, Dollar Dips Amid Tensions | 17th June, 2025

Oil Surges, Aussie Falls

On June 17, 2025, global markets remain volatile as Israel-Iran tensions escalate into a fifth day of conflict, with Iran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, boosting WTI crude to $70.60. Gold (XAU/USD) retreats below $3,400 to $3,390, pressured by USD strength (DXY at 98.20) but supported by safe-haven demand. Silver (XAG/USD) holds at $36.20 amid similar dynamics. GBP/USD consolidates at 1.3570, awaiting UK CPI, Fed, and BoE decisions. AUD/USD rebounds to 0.6510 as ceasefire hopes ease tensions, while USD/JPY drops to 144.50 after the BoJ maintains rates at 0.5%. EUR/USD steadies at 1.1530, supported by ECB hawkishness. Key catalysts include US Retail Sales (forecast unavailable), FOMC and BoE meetings, UK CPI, and Middle East developments, with Trump’s tariff threats and trade talks adding uncertainty. Posts on X reflect bearish DXY sentiment near 98.20 and focus on Fed-driven volatility.

Gold Price Forecast (XAU/USD)

Current Price and Context

Gold (XAU/USD) trades at $3,390, down from $3,400, pressured by USD strength but supported by safe-haven demand.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict, including attacks on Iran’s uranium facility, bolsters gold’s safe-haven appeal.

US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI (0.1% MoM) and 68% Fed rate-cut odds lift gold. Retail Sales data is critical.

FOMC Outlook: Expected rate hold at 4.25%-4.50% keeps focus on Powell’s comments.

Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit tensions add uncertainty, supporting gold.

Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish stance aids non-yielding gold.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor dip-buying.

Resistance: $3,400, then $3,434-$3,435 and $3,451-$3,452 (multi-week high).

Support: $3,340-$3,335 (trend-channel lower boundary), then $3,300.

Forecast: Gold may test $3,340 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to $3,451; escalation may drive $3,500.Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts highlight gold’s resilience at $3,390, with $3,600 possible by Q4 2025 per Long Forecast.

Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.

 Silver Price Forecast (XAG/USD)

Current Price and Context

Silver (XAG/USD) trades at $36.20, steady despite USD uptick, supported by geopolitical risks.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict limits silver’s downside.

US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) pressures silver, but softer PPI and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) provide support.Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs sustain uncertainty, aiding silver as a hedge.

China’s Economy: Retail Sales at 6.4% YoY support industrial demand, but deflation (CPI -0.1%) caps gains.

Monetary Policy: Fed’s dovish outlook lifts non-yielding silver.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, near 13-year highs. RSI above 50 supports upside.

Resistance: $36.89 (13-year high), then $37.00 and $37.79 (2025 forecast).

Support: $36.00, then $33.10 (50-day EMA) and $32.80.

Forecast: Silver may test $36.00 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to $36.89; escalation may drive $37.00.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show silver at $36.20, with $37.79 possible in 2025 per CoinCodex.

Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.

 AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD trades at 0.6510, rebounding as ceasefire hopes ease Middle East tensions.

Key Drivers

Middle East Tensions: Iran’s ceasefire requests via Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia boost risk sentiment, supporting AUD.

Australian Data: Upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will shape RBA outlook. Weak trade balance (5,413M vs. 6,100M) limits gains.

US Economic Data: Strong Retail Sales could strengthen USD, pressuring AUD/USD. FOMC decision is key.

Trade Policy: Canada-US trade deal optimism at G7 Summit and China’s Retail Sales (6.4% YoY) support AUD.

RBA Policy: Dovish RBA (3.85% cash rate) caps AUD upside.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. RSI above 50 supports upside.

Resistance: 0.6552 (seven-month high), then 0.6687 and 0.6730 (channel upper boundary).

Support: 0.6506 (9-day EMA), then 0.6470 (channel lower boundary) and 0.6431 (50-day EMA).

Forecast: AUD/USD may test 0.6552 if ceasefire hopes grow. Strong Retail Sales could push to 0.6470; dovish FOMC may drive 0.6687.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts note AUD/USD at 0.6510, with upside potential. CoinCodex sees 0.67 by Q3 2025.

Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Australian labor data, Middle East developments.

 USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY trades at 144.50, down after BoJ maintains rates at 0.5%, with focus on Governor Ueda’s presser.

Key Drivers

BoJ Policy: BoJ’s unchanged 0.5% rate and bond taper plan (¥2T by Q1 2027) strengthen JPY. Ueda’s comments are critical.

Geopolitical Risks: Israel-Iran conflict bolsters JPY safe-haven demand, pressuring USD/JPY.

US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) supports USD, but softer PPI and Fed rate-cut bets (68%) cap gains.

Trade Policy: Failed US-Japan trade talks at G7 Summit and Trump’s tariffs weaken USD/JPY.

Japanese Economy: Inflation at 3.6% YoY supports BoJ hawkishness, bolstering JPY.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Neutral, within multi-week range. Positive oscillators suggest limited downside.

Resistance: 145.00, then 145.45 (monthly high) and 146.00.

Support: 144.50-144.45, then 144.00 and 143.55-143.50.

Forecast: USD/JPY may test 144.00 if Ueda signals tightening. Dovish FOMC could push to 143.50; escalation may drive 142.75.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show USD/JPY at 144.72, with bearish bias. LongForecast sees 147 by June’s end.

Catalysts: BoJ presser, US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.

 EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD trades at 1.1530, steady as ECB hawkishness balances USD strength.

Key Drivers

ECB Policy: ECB’s hawkish signals (end of rate cuts nearing) support EUR, with de Guindos noting EUR/USD at 1.15 poses no inflation hurdle.

US Economic Data: Strong Michigan Sentiment (60.5) bolsters USD, but Fed rate-cut bets (68%) limit EUR/USD downside.

Geopolitical Risks: Middle East tensions boost USD safe-haven flows, capping EUR/USD.

Trade Policy: Trump’s tariffs and G7 Summit uncertainties add volatility.

Eurozone Economy: ECB’s 2% inflation target for 2025 supports EUR.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, within ascending channel. Positive oscillators favor upside.

Resistance: 1.1570, then 1.1600 and 1.1630 (multi-year peak).

Support: 1.1500, then 1.1450-1.1445 and 1.1435-1.1430.

Forecast: EUR/USD may test 1.1500 if Retail Sales are strong. Dovish FOMC could lift to 1.1630; escalation may push to 1.1450.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show EUR/USD at 1.1511, with cautious optimism. J.P. Morgan sees 1.08 by December 2025.

Catalysts: US Retail Sales, FOMC decision, Middle East developments.

 WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude trades at $70.60, extending gains amid Middle East tensions, with focus on US Retail Sales and API data.

Key Drivers

Middle East Tensions: Israel’s strike on Iran’s broadcaster and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply) fuel supply disruption fears, lifting WTI.

US Oil Inventories: EIA’s -3.644M barrel drop supports WTI; API data awaited.

US Economic Data: Strong Retail Sales could boost USD, pressuring WTI. FOMC’s demand signals are key.

Trade Policy: Trump’s tariff threats and stalled US-China/Japan trade talks could weaken demand, capping WTI upside.

OPEC+ Output: July hike of 411,000 bpd limits gains due to oversupply concerns.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bullish, above $70.00. RSI near 60 suggests upside potential.

Resistance: $71.18, then $72.50 and $74.00 (five-month high).

Support: $70.00, then $66.00 and $62.70 (yearly low-day close).

Forecast: WTI may test $71.18 if tensions escalate. Strong Retail Sales could push to $66.00; Strait closure fears may drive $74.00.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: X posts show WTI bullishness, with $80 possible if tensions persist. LongForecast sees $73.52 by June.

Catalysts: US Retail Sales, API data, FOMC decision, Middle East developments, OPEC+ updates.

 Wrap-upOn June 17, 2025, Israel-Iran tensions, with Iran’s Strait of Hormuz threat, drive WTI crude ($70.60) and gold ($3,390), while silver ($36.20) holds steady. GBP/USD (1.3570) awaits UK CPI and central bank decisions, AUD/USD (0.6510) rebounds on ceasefire hopes, and USD/JPY (144.50) dips post-BoJ. EUR/USD (1.1530) remains resilient, with DXY (98.20) bearish. US Retail Sales, FOMC, BoE, and Middle East developments are key, with Trump’s tariffs fueling volatility.

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