Any Currency Shocker??

May 13, 2015 at 13:47
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9 Replies
會員從Mar 26, 2015開始   5帖子
May 13, 2015 at 13:47
Can anybody tell me if this episode of CHF in Jan2015, is a one-off situation or there is history wherein there is a change of more than 5% in any currency on a single day??
Make Hay while Sun shines.
會員從Nov 21, 2011開始   1601帖子
May 13, 2015 at 14:19
Ok, imagine you are 5 years old and you hear about stunami.
Do you think stunami only happens since you are born?
Well you have your answer... it already happened and stunami can hit market any time.
會員從Mar 26, 2015開始   5帖子
May 14, 2015 at 06:24
I am not asking about parallels or examples. I am genuinely interested in knowing about the drastic rate changes in Forex. I am not challenging the repeat / nonrepeat of situations like CHF .
Make Hay while Sun shines.
會員從Sep 20, 2014開始   342帖子
May 15, 2015 at 04:35
@CrazyTrader It's Tsunami.

@prasadvissa It's not a one off. Happens whenever people (central banks, big banks or goverment) tries to manipulate the market for their own agenda. If you tried that you'd go to jail for life, but for some reason it's ok if one of the entities above does it.

Gold is the most obvious next.
會員從Sep 20, 2014開始   342帖子
May 15, 2015 at 04:41
會員從May 11, 2011開始   219帖子
May 15, 2015 at 09:50
Any monetary policy change will move the market... how much is anyone's guess. Those who had short positions claimed they "saw it coming" - hogwash, just lucky! and those who were long saw their rear-ends. Best is just to be prepared for the worst.
For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
會員從Mar 26, 2015開始   5帖子
May 15, 2015 at 13:16
@theHand , thank you for your inputs and the informative link.
Make Hay while Sun shines.
會員從Mar 26, 2015開始   5帖子
May 15, 2015 at 13:16
@theHand ,you mentioned "Gold is the most obvious next" -you expect gold rates to come down?
Make Hay while Sun shines.
會員從Sep 20, 2014開始   342帖子
May 16, 2015 at 06:47 (已編輯May 16, 2015 at 07:10)
@prasadvissa Up. Someone with very big pockets is constantly hammering it down. You see trades like 500 tonnes of gold being dumped on the open market on the open of the Asian trading session when there is no trading volume. The obvious purpose is to keep the price down. Who has 500 tonnes of gold ?

Considering that US couldn't give Germany it's gold back it doesn't take much to figure out who is doing this and why they're doing it. US went as far as to telll India to stop importing gold, since it pushes the physical price up and they (the US) can't get it cheap enough. Rumour is that globally the western central banks have no gold, with the exception of course of the BRICS countries who have been buying physical agressively.

If the US ever gets forced onto a gold standard, depending on who you listen to, the price of gold will end up between $12 000 to $53 000 a ounce. When the BRICS launch their system in Sept this year it is rumoured they will have a gold backed currency. That might force the US's hand if they stand any chance at all of competing. Most of Europe (and the rest of the world) have signed on for the AIIB and CIPS system which is in fact a new global financial system, which the US has no control over.

We're on the verge of a major event. There are only 3 possible outcomes for the current western financial system. WW III, hyper inflationary depression or decades of deflation. WW III doesn't matter from a gold point of view. We'd be to dead to care. The other two will be gold heaven.

At some point gold is going to break out and then whoever needs gold down is going to have to cover. Alll we're waiting for now is the trigger event. The longer we wait the bigger the jump. It's been a few years already. When it comes it will be big. Very big.

My point is that these events are not surpises. You can see them coming a mile away. The exact timing you can't predict, but it's very simple, don't trade against a peg. They always break.
會員從Apr 07, 2025開始   2帖子
Apr 07 at 09:54
prasadvissa posted:
Can anybody tell me if this episode of CHF in Jan2015, is a one-off situation or there is history wherein there is a change of more than 5% in any currency on a single day??

Large currency fluctuations of over 5% in a single day, like the CHF episode in January 2015, are rare but not unprecedented. They can occur due to major economic events or unexpected news.

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