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Use of martingale strategy
Member Since Dec 23, 2010
21 posts
Sep 10, 2012 at 06:27
The shot shows the EURUSD and GBPUSD this morning, the arrows at the top of the trend were there at close on Friday, the market status was also there.
I did NOT say I did not know how to manual trade OR analyse the market, I just do not have the time or the patience for watching it all day on multiple currencies of timeframes, that does not mean that I couldn't.
I could and have done so - my record being 10x profits in one day, but I was exhausted and very nervous afterwards lol 😁
I did NOT say I did not know how to manual trade OR analyse the market, I just do not have the time or the patience for watching it all day on multiple currencies of timeframes, that does not mean that I couldn't.
I could and have done so - my record being 10x profits in one day, but I was exhausted and very nervous afterwards lol 😁
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Member Since Dec 23, 2010
21 posts
Sep 10, 2012 at 06:30
In case anyone is wondering about the JPY trades this morning, I was looking at a very old thread regarding Ichimoku over the weekend and have adapted a 4 hour EA and changed it to a 15 mins chart one and am live testing it with one trade for £0.05 on 3 pairs.
I also have a USDCHF martingale trade still open, it is up to 3 levels this morning, its a bit slower than EURUSD, hopefully it will be ok, I will check setups later and see.
I also have a USDCHF martingale trade still open, it is up to 3 levels this morning, its a bit slower than EURUSD, hopefully it will be ok, I will check setups later and see.
Member Since Dec 23, 2010
21 posts
Sep 10, 2012 at 06:37
One point - see the White backgrounf GBPUSD graph ... look at the double arrow there .. ( the pink and red one above it), one is a confirming arrow for a major change in trend ( pink), the other one is a version of the fractals indicator, you can see the ups and downs all over the place on both the charts, but unless it has the confirming one I ignore them.
I have a STOCH and a MACD on that as well, pretty standard stuff really, apart from the lines on top of the bars, they are very special, the red line is used for moving stop losses up ( blue line when selling) and the dotted channels are used to show 15 mins and 5 mins "flow".
Nice :)
I have a STOCH and a MACD on that as well, pretty standard stuff really, apart from the lines on top of the bars, they are very special, the red line is used for moving stop losses up ( blue line when selling) and the dotted channels are used to show 15 mins and 5 mins "flow".
Nice :)
forex_trader_32776
Member Since Mar 28, 2011
942 posts
Sep 20, 2012 at 03:26
(edited Sep 20, 2012 at 03:33)
This isn't a martingale grid but a real strategy applied with martingale for recovery. The backtest was profitable on several pairs without optimizing, therefore I started a live account and not a demo. http://www.myfxbook.com/strategies/forexmargincall-gbpusd/24301
I've been working on the initial logic since Oct 2011 and began forward testing in Nov 2011.
ForexMarginCall strategy will use TP == SL otherwise a win would not recover the loss. I'll intervene if the Martingale Step Level were to ever exceed the Backtest.
The advantage of Not using a Grid and a Real Strategy is that a Loss is bound to happen. That's perfectly acceptable, but a Martingale GRID will risk the entire account on one series of trades ( if you do not have a limit) Unfortunately that can happen within 1 day.
Since a Grid Martingale can blow your account so fast, there is little time to PREPARE and prevent a margincall. However, wit a Real strategy, you have Entry logic based on a proven strategy with a TP and SL. If you find yourself in a series of Losses, you can Pause the System and Trade the next signal with Manual oversight preventing the MarginCall.
I've been working on the initial logic since Oct 2011 and began forward testing in Nov 2011.
ForexMarginCall strategy will use TP == SL otherwise a win would not recover the loss. I'll intervene if the Martingale Step Level were to ever exceed the Backtest.
The advantage of Not using a Grid and a Real Strategy is that a Loss is bound to happen. That's perfectly acceptable, but a Martingale GRID will risk the entire account on one series of trades ( if you do not have a limit) Unfortunately that can happen within 1 day.
Since a Grid Martingale can blow your account so fast, there is little time to PREPARE and prevent a margincall. However, wit a Real strategy, you have Entry logic based on a proven strategy with a TP and SL. If you find yourself in a series of Losses, you can Pause the System and Trade the next signal with Manual oversight preventing the MarginCall.
Member Since Aug 22, 2012
165 posts
Oct 05, 2012 at 08:07
pipsRUS posted:
Well you can get lucky with most anything as far as that goes does it mean it's a good strategy?
Here's a example with this kind of thinking. I myself am a pretty good scalper not the best but good enough to stay in profit most of the time. Now lets say I open up a 50 lot trade with my TP 20 pips well that is a $10,000 trade. On most days I can get those 20 pips without much problem and make a quick 10k in just a few mins does that mean I should do it ,it's a good strategy?
Traders that been around Forex for a while will tell you it's like someone behind the curtains pulling the strings. It's uncanny the way things happen in Forex and for that reason alone it's not a good strategy to use any system that has the potential to blow your account.
PipsRUS
All strategies have the potential to blow your account.
I personally use a form of martingale strategy on eToro - but I don't trade blindly, I only enter when price action and indicators favour it. I use 25 pip S.L. and 15 pip TP, if that trade looses (when conditions are met) I'll open another trade with twice the lot size but I'll use a slightly tighter TP. That way with each successive losing trade I'm increasing the probability of my TP being hit but accepting a smaller profit. If my first trade is a winner then great, I've made my profit goal and the next day I'll restart the process.
forex_trader_32776
Member Since Mar 28, 2011
942 posts
Oct 22, 2012 at 12:51
incometrader posted:
I use 25 pip S.L. and 15 pip TP, if that trade looses (when conditions are met) I'll open another trade with twice the lot size but I'll use a slightly tighter TP. That way with each successive losing trade I'm increasing the probability of my TP being hit but accepting a smaller profit. If my first trade is a winner then great, I've made my profit goal and the next day I'll restart the process.
That's funny because I decided todo the opposite. I've increased the TP to recover all the previous losses and make a nice gain for occurring several losses in a row and accepting the DD. You have a good idea by reducing the TP to increase the probability
I see you are experimenting with ILAN1.4 and Blessing - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/incometrader/demo/391425
You will need about $500,000 Demo to run those setting and not 20k
Member Since Aug 22, 2012
165 posts
Oct 23, 2012 at 02:28
(edited Oct 23, 2012 at 02:30)
Trick or Treat: "That's funny because I decided to do the opposite. I've increased the TP to recover all the previous losses and make a nice gain for occurring several losses in a row and accepting the DD. You have a good idea by reducing the TP to increase the probability
I see you are experimenting with ILAN1.4 and Blessing - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/incometrader/demo/391425
You will need about $500,000 Demo to run those setting and not 20k"
That's an interesting method - increasing the TP. So do you just increase the TP then, and not the lot size? Don't you worry that you're decreasing the probability of your TP being hit?
What makes you say I need 500k to run ILAN1.4 and Blessing on those settings? On my current settings do you mean? I've recently changed the settings on Ilan1.4...
I see you are experimenting with ILAN1.4 and Blessing - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/incometrader/demo/391425
You will need about $500,000 Demo to run those setting and not 20k"
That's an interesting method - increasing the TP. So do you just increase the TP then, and not the lot size? Don't you worry that you're decreasing the probability of your TP being hit?
What makes you say I need 500k to run ILAN1.4 and Blessing on those settings? On my current settings do you mean? I've recently changed the settings on Ilan1.4...
forex_trader_32776
Member Since Mar 28, 2011
942 posts
Oct 23, 2012 at 07:43
Yes I increase the TP and the Lotsize based on Martingale. see here - trade history open - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/pipinvestmentbot/forexmargincall/388751
I do think the TP is harder to Hit and in result, yes it can decrease the profitability in terms of pips. It can also prolong the DD by taking a longer time to hit a winner. Its a slow progress.
blessing + ilan - i looked at your Lotsize and GridDistance and IMHO it looked too aggressive. Good luck though
I do think the TP is harder to Hit and in result, yes it can decrease the profitability in terms of pips. It can also prolong the DD by taking a longer time to hit a winner. Its a slow progress.
blessing + ilan - i looked at your Lotsize and GridDistance and IMHO it looked too aggressive. Good luck though
Member Since Aug 22, 2012
165 posts
Oct 23, 2012 at 11:33
ForexScam posted:
Yes I increase the TP and the Lotsize based on Martingale. see here - trade history open - http://www.myfxbook.com/members/pipinvestmentbot/forexmargincall/388751
I do think the TP is harder to Hit and in result, yes it can decrease the profitability in terms of pips. It can also prolong the DD by taking a longer time to hit a winner. Its a slow progress.
blessing + ilan - i looked at your Lotsize and GridDistance and IMHO it looked too aggressive. Good luck though
Seems to be working well for you. So what is your lot size limit? I had a blowout on eToro using my strategy - but I was way too aggressive: only 5 losses in a row and I'd have to accept a loss. I was aiming for 1% total profit per day. How many loosing trades can you have in a row before you have to stop increasing the lot size? Do you have a daily profit % target?
I've modified my strategy now: 200X leverage instead of 400X. 50 pip SL, 15 pip TP and manually close if indicators are telling me I'm on the wrong direction. Now achieving about 0.5% per day.
Member Since Oct 20, 2009
42 posts
Oct 30, 2012 at 05:27
Oct 31, 2012 at 20:20
Hi ...
I use my own idea to keep the martingale works more till close all the cycle on profit.
The EA can control the number of max lots ... Take Profit for the first round is bigger than the rest of next orders ... while all the time Take Profit is bigger than the Stop Loss. EA use (most of the time) a breakout idea on H1 candle @ 01:00 am ... actually can be changed from EA settings ... The test run for only 3 weeks on 2009 because I have no VPS server those days, but I will put it tonight or tomorrow on mine. The profit was about 27.52 % for the 3 weeks, i.e, about 36.7 % per month !.
I believe that the idea of using different TP and SL will make the EA will go for longer time by making the probability to hit the TP is bigger and making the number of orders of the complete cycle is less !.
Once, I put the EA again on myfxbook.com, I will post the link hee :)
Yo may analyse the attached statement and give me your comments.
Thanks
I use my own idea to keep the martingale works more till close all the cycle on profit.
The EA can control the number of max lots ... Take Profit for the first round is bigger than the rest of next orders ... while all the time Take Profit is bigger than the Stop Loss. EA use (most of the time) a breakout idea on H1 candle @ 01:00 am ... actually can be changed from EA settings ... The test run for only 3 weeks on 2009 because I have no VPS server those days, but I will put it tonight or tomorrow on mine. The profit was about 27.52 % for the 3 weeks, i.e, about 36.7 % per month !.
I believe that the idea of using different TP and SL will make the EA will go for longer time by making the probability to hit the TP is bigger and making the number of orders of the complete cycle is less !.
Once, I put the EA again on myfxbook.com, I will post the link hee :)
Yo may analyse the attached statement and give me your comments.
Thanks
Attachments:
... oshaban ... skype: oshaban27 ...
Member Since Jan 14, 2010
541 posts
Nov 01, 2012 at 14:00
I have yet to see a martingale which doesn't fail eventually.
forex_trader_8139
Member Since Mar 04, 2010
411 posts
Nov 01, 2012 at 14:20
James_Bond posted:
I have yet to see a martingale which doesn't fail eventually.
Hi Mate 😄,
eventually means for how long?
With Thanks,
SIM
Member Since Jun 21, 2012
18 posts
Nov 06, 2012 at 22:08
Martingale is less efficient than a single trade policy in the long term. It only serves to smoothen out the balance at the expense of the equity curve.
The only way to get smarter is by playing a smarter opponent
Member Since Dec 20, 2011
3 posts
Nov 08, 2012 at 17:47
Martingales are simple statistical illusions. People who use these kind of strategies can´t call themselves ¨traders¨. No professional investor will put a single dollar in such strategies.
Member Since Aug 22, 2012
165 posts
Nov 13, 2012 at 01:50
I dunno... I think a martingale factor built into your existing strategy could be a good idea as long as your account size is large enough and your starting lot sized accordingly.
A completely 'blind' martingale strategy would spell disaster I think, but if you have a strategy that gives you an edge as in over 50% win rate its definitely viable.
What matters most (in my opinion) with a martingale strategy is how many loosing trades you can have before you have to except a loss.
A completely 'blind' martingale strategy would spell disaster I think, but if you have a strategy that gives you an edge as in over 50% win rate its definitely viable.
What matters most (in my opinion) with a martingale strategy is how many loosing trades you can have before you have to except a loss.
Jan 11, 2013 at 14:13
The core function of a martingale system is to recover losses and simultaneoulsy bank normal profits. Whether it wipes out accounts in a day or continues to work in the long run all depends on the risk apetite of the trader.
Never lose money
Member Since Dec 17, 2012
5 posts
Jan 16, 2013 at 07:06
If you are using a solid strategy, martingales can enhance your system quite a bit. Otherwise, if they are trading without concept, they are a ticking time bomb.
I´ve coded strategies which also use martingale. They withstood the financial crashs over the past decade on backtests with several brokers, as well as with tick data.
They had a visible drawdown during the 2008 meltdown, but they survived. I have a win-ratio of 80% with it though, so it is not the typical randomly trading martingale.
I´ve coded strategies which also use martingale. They withstood the financial crashs over the past decade on backtests with several brokers, as well as with tick data.
They had a visible drawdown during the 2008 meltdown, but they survived. I have a win-ratio of 80% with it though, so it is not the typical randomly trading martingale.
