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Taking the Opposite Trade
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sd59

会員 Jun 15, 2012  14 件の投稿 sd59 Jan 31 2013 at 10:52
It's well known that most retail traders don't make money in Forex. Very simply put, the market goes in the other direction to your intended trade & it's happened to me many times! Has anybody in this forum done a controlled study where the other side of the intended trade is taken? So if you fancy a long position just go short instead. If so it would be interesting to see the results.
(Please don't start a discussion about hedging as it is a different strategy.)

myfxpt

会員 Aug 06, 2011  345 件の投稿 Gary Sharp myfxpt com (myfxpt) Feb 06 2013 at 21:25
If you are taking the opposite position to that which your strategy indicates, your strategy is not working and you have become a gambler.

sd59

会員 Jun 15, 2012  14 件の投稿 sd59 Feb 10 2013 at 12:05
I agree. It was a bit of a tongue-in-cheek question because when we all start out as newbie's this is what happens in reality i.e we go short with all good intent and the market goes the other way.

soumadamou

会員 Feb 10, 2013  5 件の投稿 soumadamou Feb 10 2013 at 21:55
I thank you your advice are very useful.

usd/eur
valentine

会員 Oct 31, 2012  30 件の投稿 valentine Feb 12 2013 at 20:19
As long as you respect the money management rules you can enter the trade even based on which side the coin flips

BellaVista507

会員 Jan 19, 2013  251 件の投稿 BellaVista507 Feb 15 2013 at 10:36
valentine posted:
As long as you respect the money management rules you can enter the trade even based on which side the coin flips


 I'd have to disagree. One of the most misinterpreted lingo in forex is 'Money management'. Many individual factors make up this lingo. Yet, in no way shape or form is ones 'entry' factored in. I've noticed that most traders, assume their entry is the perfect one. Which leads to trade bias once the position goes against us. Here is a prime example. Most of us trade eur/usd.... EUR/USD has a daily trading range of about 80 pips. Most of the people with 'GREAT MONEY MANAGEMENT' have a stop loss of around 200-300 points. Almost 3x eur/usd daily range. How could one manage money efficiently when it is a fact that the longer you HOLD position, the more likely you are to close it at a loss.

  The word gamble isn't defined by the amount of money you wager, or the risk you take. It is merely defined as 'Taking a risk in something which we don't know for sure what the outcome would be' Many of us use high tf to enter a position. When we should use the lower tf to enter. Which is why 95% of us end up depositing before we ever withdraw.

   To answer the thread starters question. I reverse trade. I believe once you enter a position. If that position goes against you 5 points, you should not allow that position to continue to run. Of course it depends on the system which you use to enter. If it may be pivot trading trading, MA high/low etc. I currently don't have an account right now big enough to test the method for public display. Yet, with the account which I've attached here. I focus solely on my entry. Where as a sl of 6 is more then enough. I for one believe if you reverse trade you will be come way more successful then you would if you trade with bias.

CrazyTrader

会員 Nov 21, 2011  1716 件の投稿 CrazyTraderfx (CrazyTrader) Feb 20 2013 at 14:54
Hi,

This topic is very interesting.

You are talking about the SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index). We have a good exemple here:
https://www.myfxbook.com/forex-charts/GBPUSD,W1/4563

I mentioned at that time that 81% traders were LONG, so we could guess that GBP would collapse more. And after a week, we had the confirmation, GBP lost 400 pips.

The SSI is probably one of the greatest tool / indicator that we have.

To reply to the first question... I'm actually testing it since a couple of day. I have a real account connected (kind of EA) to a demo account that trades the opposite of my trades. As I'm loosing, if my real account does the opposite of what I trade in demo... well I should be a winner. The only tricking thing is a newbie cobaye should trade on that demo account because as I'm aware of the reverse strategy, well I trade the opposite of what I think on demo so it does what I want in real account.

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BellaVista507

会員 Jan 19, 2013  251 件の投稿 BellaVista507 Feb 20 2013 at 20:20
Taking the opposite trade is the 'BEST WAY TO TRADE'. For one simple reason. No indicator, or forex guru can predict the price action which is to come. So all though your system or someones recommendation may work at first. Playing the reversal simply means your going with the price action. Not against it. No one in there right mind would take a position in which they 'KNEW' they would end up being in red 50 points before they made 50 points. If one honestly believes that then they should take the opposite trade. Especially when your in profit and your BE gets hit. I do it all of the time, and it has led to my account doubling :)

CrazyTrader

会員 Nov 21, 2011  1716 件の投稿 CrazyTraderfx (CrazyTrader) Feb 20 2013 at 20:57
We were talking about trading... not scalping 5 pips.
If you do scalping in a volatile moment... whatever you open long or short it will works anyway

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BellaVista507

会員 Jan 19, 2013  251 件の投稿 BellaVista507 Feb 21 2013 at 06:44
Scalping is a form of TRADING. Regardless if your swing or scalping. You simply have to look at your entries. Take the avg amount of points in which you enter in red maybe 10 pips before you win 10 pips. Even if it is a 100 pip tp. The reality is most of us are trying to earn the most pips we can. So why not take the reverse trade and gather points instead of being bias towards the first position?

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