Trading Journal

It was a pretty profitable year! :-)
The forum was a great help.
Which you all Wish you all a Happy 2016!

After the oil has fallen about 40% over the past three months, the positive consequences should begin to emerge and perhaps to influence investor decisions. Some macroeconomic studies indicate that a decrease of 60 USD / barrel crude price moves about 2000 000 M.USD from producing countries to consuming countries. In recent months, investors focused on the negative impact that the oil is falling in countries like Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Russia, etc. However, there is a flip side and the main beneficiary is Europe. In fact, the European Union is one of the largest importers of oil and at a time when its economy has not yet reached a 'cruising speed', the fall of oil could be the missing driver. In fact, if one considers that the European Union imports about 30% of the world's oil, so a drop of 60 USD / barrel will generate an income of about 660,000 M.USD to this region.

If European markets close higher today, many investors who have opened selling positions in the market will resort to derivatives to protect their capital and might close their positions. In addition, recent declines have made some stocks interesting from a fundamental point of view, which could attract the interest of the so-called value Investors. When a financial asset goes through a very prolonged and steep downturn, where many investors have opened selling positions (short), recoveries are usually quite quick and sharp. However, if today’s behavior of European equities is weak investors who bought yesterday, as well as potential buyers will be discouraged.

Today US oil reserves will be released. In recent weeks, there has been a fairly volatile and distant readings forecast of economists. Despite this volatility is possible to trace a pattern, characterized by a much smaller increase in oil reserves and a sharp increase in gas reserves. Economists estimate that crude oil reserves have increased 2.6 M.USD and gasoline 1.9 M.USD.

For a more enduring reversal of investor sentiment, the statements of Mario Draghi do not seem to be enough. To attend a recovery of stock markets, it should be confirmed any of the following conditions:
– The decline in fears about a devaluation of the Yuan (which has already been happening)
– The stabilization of the Chinese markets
– The oil recovery

he value of crude oil was undoubtedly the main catalyst of Wall Street’s rise on Friday. Oil posted the largest daily increase since August of last year valuing up 9%.

From a technical point of view, while the S & P stays above 1800 points, there remains a reasonable probability that the stock markets entering into a recovery.

The meeting of the Fed today will not bring major changes in relation to what was broadcast to the market at its December meeting. Last month, the oil retreated over 25%, with a negative impact on inflation and hindering the task of driving the Fed to levels close to 2%. Given this trend, investors will monitor the reference of the Fed for inflation, it is not excluded the minutes to reveal the apprehension of the members of the Central Bank, which would lead investors to believe not only that the Fed will not raise rates at the March meeting as the number of increases may be smaller than anticipated by the Fed members (4 increases of 0.25%).

In the European session will be the scene of two opposite forces: a negative reaction from Wall Street to the Fed decision and the appreciation of oil in the New York session.

psaTrading posted:
In the European session will be the scene of two opposite forces: a negative reaction from Wall Street to the Fed decision and the appreciation of oil in the New York session.

It was Wall street that told the FED to back off,the appreciation of oil was built on the rumour that Russia would cut production.

Asian markets closed with sharp gains, due to the somewhat surprising decision by the Bank of Japan. Challenging economists’ forecasts, which point to an extension of the asset purchase program, the Bank of Japan decided to reduce the interest rate on deposits which the Nipponese banks have with this institution to -0.10%. This measure is not innovative but takes the surprise character in that Governor Haruhiko Kuroda recently to have shown skeptical to the adoption of negative interest rates.

Regarding the potential of the ongoing recovery, this will depend on the behavior of oil and Chinese financial markets. From a technical point of view, and considering the DAX as a sample of European markets, the first obstacle relevant to the rise of the German index is located in the zone of 10170-10270. The recovery is expected to be much more volatile than in the last years. It is not excluded that this upward movement is interrupted by negative sessions, in which may occur sharp devaluations.

It seems that the GBP/USD move to the downside is over for now.

On yesterday’s session the euro continued to increase against the dollar for a second day and added 31 pips to a closing price of 1.0918. Extreme values for the session were reached respectively at 1.0939 and 1.0884. In view of the movement of the pair in range, the outlook remains neutral in the short term.

Perhaps the overperformance of the Chinese market was due to the approach of the New Year festivities and the possibility (purely hypothetical) that the Bank of China to surprise the financial markets during this period with some monetary measure

psaTrading posted:
Perhaps the overperformance of the Chinese market was due to the approach of the New Year festivities and the possibility (purely hypothetical) that the Bank of China to surprise the financial markets during this period with some monetary measure

They secured a major buyout of Syngenta today 43billion I recall,the biggest buyout yet,your right its festive season as well.
Alibaba out preformed 3Q16, China sneezed and the world caught double pneumonia.The Chinese economy is changing to a huge consumers market.

The Governor of New-York Fed, said that conditions in financial markets and the global economy serve as compelling evidence to the US economy, with the same effects of a rise in interest rates. Investors interpreted the words of William Dudley as a lower propensity of the Central Bank to raise interest rates at its next meeting in March.

Its all manipulated bull shit. You wasting your time with these ridiculous posts.

If the price is going up and everyone wondering what is possibly driving this market then you buy it. By the time any relevant news has come out confirming a trade its too late! You just selling your shit to the next sucker who will buy it.

All you need to do is follow the price and capitalize on the patterns.

Despite the recent acceleration, wages are not fully mirroring, the improvements in the labor market.