Aaron's " UnConventional 100% Winning " Strategies ! (による fxtradingempire)
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Aaron's " UnConventional 100% Winning " Strategies ! 討論
Aug 20, 2013からメンバー
21 投稿
Dec 04, 2010からメンバー
1447 投稿
Dec 04, 2010からメンバー
1447 投稿
Sep 24, 2012からメンバー
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May 04, 2012からメンバー
1534 投稿
Dec 18, 2016 at 13:26
(編集済みのDec 18, 2016 at 13:37)
May 04, 2012からメンバー
1534 投稿
Average Monthly Profit : Max. DD ratio of 1.5 : 1 looks good.
Nevertheless, I have two major concerns with this strategy:
1. There have been only 38 trades over the past 8 months. It is not "bad" by itself, but a definite concern, as the statistical significance of 38 trades (i.e. the "'p value"") is VERY POOR. In other words - statistically speaking - the results could EASILY BE a product of "RANDOM CHANCE" and a "scientist" could not and would not make ANY conclusion out if it.
2. Open Trades and Trade History are hidden AND the account seems to be DISCONNECTED from MyFxBook on a regular bases, and probably during open trades (even though those open trades are hidden). Why would someone disconnect his/her MT4 from MyFxBook if the Open Trades and Trade History were HIDDEN anyway...??
IN GENERAL: In case of MyFxBook disconnection during open trades, MyFxBook cannot record and report REAL maximum floating drawdowns, so the REAL maximum DD value could be MUCH MUCH higher than reported.
The fact that the account's last connection to MyFxBook was 3 days ago (on a Thursday morning at 7:05 AM) means that if there was an open trade right now with a e.g. -50% DD, and eventually closing in 5% profit sometime next week, MyFxBook WILL NOT RECORD and REPORT this -50% DD, just the +5% gain when the account is reconnected to MyFxBook...
I have been a "victim" of such strategies showing very low and tolerable max. DD values, but after joining as a client, my funds were exposed to rollercoaster range DDs which were INVISIBLE for MyFxBook as the showcase account was disconnected from MyFxBook during those HUGE drawdowns.
Nevertheless, I have two major concerns with this strategy:
1. There have been only 38 trades over the past 8 months. It is not "bad" by itself, but a definite concern, as the statistical significance of 38 trades (i.e. the "'p value"") is VERY POOR. In other words - statistically speaking - the results could EASILY BE a product of "RANDOM CHANCE" and a "scientist" could not and would not make ANY conclusion out if it.
2. Open Trades and Trade History are hidden AND the account seems to be DISCONNECTED from MyFxBook on a regular bases, and probably during open trades (even though those open trades are hidden). Why would someone disconnect his/her MT4 from MyFxBook if the Open Trades and Trade History were HIDDEN anyway...??
IN GENERAL: In case of MyFxBook disconnection during open trades, MyFxBook cannot record and report REAL maximum floating drawdowns, so the REAL maximum DD value could be MUCH MUCH higher than reported.
The fact that the account's last connection to MyFxBook was 3 days ago (on a Thursday morning at 7:05 AM) means that if there was an open trade right now with a e.g. -50% DD, and eventually closing in 5% profit sometime next week, MyFxBook WILL NOT RECORD and REPORT this -50% DD, just the +5% gain when the account is reconnected to MyFxBook...
I have been a "victim" of such strategies showing very low and tolerable max. DD values, but after joining as a client, my funds were exposed to rollercoaster range DDs which were INVISIBLE for MyFxBook as the showcase account was disconnected from MyFxBook during those HUGE drawdowns.
Please click "Vouch" if you liked my post. If not, just put me on your Blocked list. :o)
Dec 04, 2010からメンバー
1447 投稿

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