Free Trader 討論

Yes, I do trade individual positions - but that's due to the nature of my system; I can have only one trade open per pair, so I have 3-4 trades at most open at the same time.

If I understand you correctly, then you mean I need to scale in and scale out of a position? So I should have multiple entries for a single setup?

And yes, I see your point now - you're not looking to exit in the best possible spot, but bank profit on each trade? If so, then it will create more profit in the short term, but on the long term I believe it will push the reward:risk ratio down so I will need to have a higher winning percentage (which I'm not sure I can achieve).

I'll explain, going to be a bit long winded, but it's an important concept.

I also traded USDJPY this week, and it was a loser for me, here's my losing pairs:

USDJPY
GBPJPY
GBPUSD

And here's my winning ones:

EURJPY
NZDJPY
CHFJPY
AUDJPY

USDCHF
AUDUSD
EURUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD

All those pairs have either USD or JPY in them. So instead of taking a USDJPY position using USDJPY, I diversified the trade over a bunch of pairs. When you look at the USDJPY chart, why are you getting a signal? Did JPY move? Or did USD move? Or both?

By placing a USDJPY bet you're taking a double position. For you to make money (lets assume you're long USD):

USD has to get stronger AND JPY has to do nothing
USD has to get stronger AND JPY has to get weaker
JPY has to get weaker AND USD has to do nothing

All of those have 2 conditions attached.

In my case both USD and JPY moved in the same direction, lets say stronger, so the USDJPY pair didn't move. But as you can see I made money by having my position over several pairs.

Using your entry system, if you get a signal on USDJPY what I'd do is go look at the other JPY pairs, if they all have signal or are close to having them then I'll put down my JPY position across the range, so if one stuffs around it doesn't matter, like USDJPY did this week. So for me to make money I say right, stronger JPY against a basket. The is no AND. So that's one bet. And I diversified it in-case on pair ie USDJPY stuffs around.

Once the JPY position is in place I'd go look at the dollar, cuase it might not have moved at all and I'm getting no signals.

Now you have a position, not a trade. And only the position matters, so let's say you're up 1% for the day doesn't matter if pair x is -200 and pair y is +300. It's a profit and you take it...maybe a partial percentage, whatever suits you. But now you're managing the positions, not trades..

Oanda is one of the few brokers that actually gives you the ability to close out a position with a click. Rest of them you have to wade through your own stats...Hope i explained that adequately.

Here's an example I did yesterday with very small trade sizes as an example. I ran through both Euro and Usd and ended up with a EurUsd position, I could have ended up with just a Euro or just a Usd position. But most charts CCI gave either as overbought or oversold, so it was easy to take the position.

JPY wasn't so clear so I ended up with a small position.

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Why doesn't my attachment show up as a picture?

Sorry one last thought.

Using my approach it's possible to be say long USD and EUR and GBP at the same time, your EURUSD etc. position will be neutral. Just because we are used to a 80 or 90% opposite correlation to between EUR and USD doesn't mean it will always be like that. What if the dollar falls away as reserve currency and europe fails as block? Both will lose value at the same time against say AUD.

And it will be in fx long before it's in the news, that I can guarantee you. So this way we are more dynamic in our approach to fx movements. I often have what would be seen as contradictory positions. Currency relationships decouple all the time for short periods. GBPUSD and EURUSD would be a good example. The correlation there disappears for a day or two quite often. So what's changing there? EUR, USD or GBP?

With my USDJPY example I had to have the same position in USD and JPY at the same time, or I wouldn't have made money. Both obviously moved, but in relation to each other they were moving in the same direction. That's and example of a temp decoupling from the normal relationship.

Elkart posted:
    Why doesn't my attachment show up as a picture?

Elkart, you must click the 'Insert' button after the attachment has finished uploading to embed it in the post, or else it won't show up (it will only as a file name at the end of the post) - we've fixed the post for you.

Khap hun Krap - that's thai for thank you. I'll try something else see if I get it. Brain not as nimble as it used to be. All the diving. Bubbles in the brain. Should have seen me before I started, Einstein had nothing on me, now I'm just another dude.

Elkart, first of all I really like your out of the box thinking!

Secondly, I'm starting to grasp your concept, but the more I think about it, the more it seems to me that this is a kind of a hedge.

You're absolutely correct regarding a movement of a pair (I've actually had the same thoughts some time ago) in that you can't know why the pair is moving, and it is indeed due to one of the possibilities you've suggested.

My question is - with your technique you do capture the entire move of the market, but what about the other side of the trade? You just keep it hanging until it goes into profit? Isn't it the same like hedging a position, in which the overall gain is 0 if you were to close everything?

Another issue that arises is the spreads - with your method you can open 3-4 trades instead of one trade - so you're actually paying 3-4 times more the spread; I guess it doesn't have a big effect on your profit margin if you're tp's are pretty distant?

On Oanda you can't hedge. They cancel out. I don't think I have much hedging even on mt4, not the way my equity swings around. So I don't think that's an issue. Where they do hedge you wanted a neutral position anyway. So not an issue.

I've never seen 0, I'm always losing or gaining. You'll have to make some rules for the losing positions, but for that you'll have to play with your entries and see what happens. Here at -5% on my equity highs I start taking action, but it doesn't happen often. And when it does I normally have about 5% open and in profit so it only takes me back to previous balance. I very seldom draw down into the red.

Trade costs, I do a trade every 2.5 days or so, so not an issue either. I seldom catch entire moves, but that's not the aim. The aim is to get your percentage for the day, whatever the market does. You can't get everything. Spot the high volatility and thus momentum, make your trades, take your pips and go have beer. There's always more pips tomorrow.

That's my advice as a trader and a beer lover...

At worst you have another way to think about systems. You need to make a change somewhere. And this view will give you a thought process to work with, where individual trades don't count much. Perhaps a little more sophisticated than the average and might just give you and edge. Play with it a bit, see if it can work for you.

I swing trade, so I always have a position. And the avg is 2.5 days. So using your method to get in, I'd say a percent or so later you need to be out or maybe at worst here at 2 days you need to be looking. Maybe even use apposing signals on your system, cause you're not prisoner to one pair anymore, if a lot of them call for a turn, close out.

If you look at my breakdown above you'll see that's there's always a pair misbehaving. Maybe 20% to 30% will always do the wrong thing for whatever their reasons are. In my case this time they were the major pairs. Even if they are profitable normally.

I don't think one pair gives enough information to make an informed decision. As in the USDJPY example above. What where you trading? USD or JPY? So play with a multiple pair strategy for a while, see if it helps.