I3IK - Account Management - I3IK (による it7oto)
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I3IK - Account Management - I3IK 討論
Apr 17, 2013 at 15:33
(編集済みのApr 17, 2013 at 15:43)
This system is making predictions on the basics of 'House Theory' and is is storing up the profits in a hedge. The goal is to turn the risk exposure of the account to only positive one.
The reasoning is to take small risk and to use the past profits in order to cover the risk.
Regards
i3ik
The reasoning is to take small risk and to use the past profits in order to cover the risk.
Regards
i3ik
付属品:
Reality is Created by Fiction!
Apr 18, 2013 at 18:00
Correctly determined trend direction is prerequisite for successful trading. Once the trainee trader learns how to BASE his judgments his account starts to make sense. Losing trades become smaller or lesser. Profitable trades increase by number and pips.
How to base our judgment?
In order to do it, we have to understand the market environment first. Markets are created by people. They are not natural, they are artificial. Markets help people price goods. Without pricing humans will be unable to trade and thus specialize. This concept is central for understanding social development. It is first developed by Adam Smith in “Wealth of Nations” – the Bible of Economics.
That is why the father of all markets is the money market. It is created by “Central Banks” or the FED in the case of the US. So the Central Bank is the organization that creates the all the markets. It creates the money market by publishing money and initiating first credit market.
Now we know who the big Market Maker is. Central banks manage the money supply by two basic factors. The first factor is the interest rates that it sets and the second one is the interest that Government credit costs. The latter is seen on FED’s auctions.
Interest on government bonds is considered free of risk; which in finance does not mean that there is no risk, as recently seen in Cyprus. It means that there is no instrument with lower risk than government bonds. If Cyprus was a regular country it wouldn't be problem. If the Central Bank of Cyprus had the right to issue its own money. They would have paid the nominal. The cost would be transferred to creditors – Russian mafia in this case. This is the unity between monetary and fiscal policy that Europeans deal with right now.
In order to manage money markets, central banks influence participants with interest rate that they set. This is pool method (carrot) which creates incentive to international money flow. This creates demand for the currency and the price increases. One can see it very easily if he looks at AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.
To intersect if further - there is difference in the interest different banks set. This creates the opportunity for fixed income. The way to do it is to take credit in currency with low interest and to invest it in currency with higher interest. This action is not a byte for every mouth, but traders can exploit it differently.
If you are a trend trader you have to base your judgments. Here is one concept that is scientifically valid. For every currency pair in Forex there is sentiment to take in to account.
This sentiment is long term, does not change during the day, is public, and can help you a lot in trading.
Taking the correct direction is only the first step in successful trading. It is not deterministic however. Those currency pairs have downward trends and corrections. What I see then is good opportunity for early enter. I personally trade only currencies with great differential in the interest rate. And I trade them only in the direction given by central banks.
How to base our judgment?
In order to do it, we have to understand the market environment first. Markets are created by people. They are not natural, they are artificial. Markets help people price goods. Without pricing humans will be unable to trade and thus specialize. This concept is central for understanding social development. It is first developed by Adam Smith in “Wealth of Nations” – the Bible of Economics.
That is why the father of all markets is the money market. It is created by “Central Banks” or the FED in the case of the US. So the Central Bank is the organization that creates the all the markets. It creates the money market by publishing money and initiating first credit market.
Now we know who the big Market Maker is. Central banks manage the money supply by two basic factors. The first factor is the interest rates that it sets and the second one is the interest that Government credit costs. The latter is seen on FED’s auctions.
Interest on government bonds is considered free of risk; which in finance does not mean that there is no risk, as recently seen in Cyprus. It means that there is no instrument with lower risk than government bonds. If Cyprus was a regular country it wouldn't be problem. If the Central Bank of Cyprus had the right to issue its own money. They would have paid the nominal. The cost would be transferred to creditors – Russian mafia in this case. This is the unity between monetary and fiscal policy that Europeans deal with right now.
In order to manage money markets, central banks influence participants with interest rate that they set. This is pool method (carrot) which creates incentive to international money flow. This creates demand for the currency and the price increases. One can see it very easily if he looks at AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.
To intersect if further - there is difference in the interest different banks set. This creates the opportunity for fixed income. The way to do it is to take credit in currency with low interest and to invest it in currency with higher interest. This action is not a byte for every mouth, but traders can exploit it differently.
If you are a trend trader you have to base your judgments. Here is one concept that is scientifically valid. For every currency pair in Forex there is sentiment to take in to account.
This sentiment is long term, does not change during the day, is public, and can help you a lot in trading.
Taking the correct direction is only the first step in successful trading. It is not deterministic however. Those currency pairs have downward trends and corrections. What I see then is good opportunity for early enter. I personally trade only currencies with great differential in the interest rate. And I trade them only in the direction given by central banks.
Reality is Created by Fiction!
Apr 26, 2013 at 05:56
I am glad to inform you about the opening of PAMM services to the wide public.
You can find all answers to all of your questions here: https://www.instaforex.com/pamm_monitoring.php?trader=5204945
Regards
i3ik
You can find all answers to all of your questions here: https://www.instaforex.com/pamm_monitoring.php?trader=5204945
Regards
i3ik
Reality is Created by Fiction!
Apr 26, 2013 at 07:50
How to Determine Market Direction in Forex Day Trading?
Before a Signal Forex Traders Need Direction
Have you ever wondered? Why Gold prices increase in difficult economic times and why the Oil prices fall? In order to understand it one has to understand the connectivity between all markets. Only then he can understand comprehensively, that it does not matter what instrument he observes, they are all interconnected. In order to explain my thoughts, let’s imagine a model like the Ocean system in the earth. When I say ocean I mean all the water and you know it is connected vie rivers and lakes. And eventually all the water ends in the ocean. There are exceptions like Death See in the Middle East. The death See waters does not flow to the sea, they stay trapped. And this is the reason why it is called its name. Death See is not connected to its pears. In the market these creatures are for example the private companies.
How it works?
In this model every spring is a retail trader, every river is a broker. Maybe Bank of America (BAC) is the Pacific Ocean. Further every kitchen sink is a client that, wants to buy Japanese car in US. If you can imagine this you will understand that the price movement in all market is interconnected. And the price moves are like changes in gravity in the “Earth Model.” Gravity determined by demand and supply. For further confirmation I suggest anyone to plot a candle graph of SP-500 (SPX) and EUR/USD. He can add VIX, T Bill (US treasury bills), Oil, and Gold on the screen, too. Then one will see that, price moves happen in the same time window. This is the proof that the markets are interconnected.
When and what does happen?
If you did the latter you would see prices move coordinated by time. What I mean is that, the major changes will happen at approximately the same time. And you will also see that there is correlation in the directions of different markets. Correlation is positive if EUR/USD is compared with SP-500 and negative for VIX, T Bill. Another way to confirm observations is to check the statistical correlations between prices. This data is published and can be easily found online.
Why is that?
After accepting the assumption that markets a correlated, there is the opportunity to develop new knowledge in order to better ones trading. It does not matter what tools you use, knowing the market direction improves profitability. If I use the Ocean model, by watching the river, I will see that if gravity changes the speed of the river will change with it. There for I can bet for the level of any river by observing the level of any other river. This is not true for the Earth because the gravity does not change. However in the model gravity is determined by Demand and Supply and is not stable.
Further imagine that when gravity changes, there is time needed for the change to happen. Same as reality, where we know that gravity travels with the speed of light. So if you are in any point in the Earth that is closer to the center, and the center is the gravity core, you will have earlier information about the speed of the river than, any body being on higher altitudes. So you can predict 100% what will be the speed of the stream up hill. Before the speed actually changes.
Why that is so that in the market world rules are different, than those of the physical reality?
Look first how markets are designed. Every market price is composed of instrument traded against a currency. The price is measured in currency. And after the British lost the Second World War this currency is mainly American Dollars. That is the direct channel for the connection between all markets except some Forex pairs and T bills.
•
• EUR/USD - $
• Equity - $
• Gold - $
• Oil - $
•
If any of these instruments’s price changes, then it influences the demand/supply of US dollar. This in its terms changes the balance in all other instruments that trade dollars. Can you see the waves?
There are two exceptions, which need to be discussed. First are the Treasury bills. The initial publishing of this instrument is a different process. Here the price of the instrument is the interest itself. I will stop here in order to not over complicate, but if you watch a graph of T bills, it will be negatively correlated with EUR/USD. And if one watches the yields plotted, they will be positively correlated to the euro.
The second exception is Forex Market pairs that do not include the American dollar and are not directly interconnected with the dollar currencies. These markets can be followed by any other Forex pairs, which include them.
As a trader this information is very helpful for me, when I form my daily anticipation for market direction. For example in trend following. If technical analysis shows bullish signal and not all markets have clear direction, I do not trade the set up.
Before a Signal Forex Traders Need Direction
Have you ever wondered? Why Gold prices increase in difficult economic times and why the Oil prices fall? In order to understand it one has to understand the connectivity between all markets. Only then he can understand comprehensively, that it does not matter what instrument he observes, they are all interconnected. In order to explain my thoughts, let’s imagine a model like the Ocean system in the earth. When I say ocean I mean all the water and you know it is connected vie rivers and lakes. And eventually all the water ends in the ocean. There are exceptions like Death See in the Middle East. The death See waters does not flow to the sea, they stay trapped. And this is the reason why it is called its name. Death See is not connected to its pears. In the market these creatures are for example the private companies.
How it works?
In this model every spring is a retail trader, every river is a broker. Maybe Bank of America (BAC) is the Pacific Ocean. Further every kitchen sink is a client that, wants to buy Japanese car in US. If you can imagine this you will understand that the price movement in all market is interconnected. And the price moves are like changes in gravity in the “Earth Model.” Gravity determined by demand and supply. For further confirmation I suggest anyone to plot a candle graph of SP-500 (SPX) and EUR/USD. He can add VIX, T Bill (US treasury bills), Oil, and Gold on the screen, too. Then one will see that, price moves happen in the same time window. This is the proof that the markets are interconnected.
When and what does happen?
If you did the latter you would see prices move coordinated by time. What I mean is that, the major changes will happen at approximately the same time. And you will also see that there is correlation in the directions of different markets. Correlation is positive if EUR/USD is compared with SP-500 and negative for VIX, T Bill. Another way to confirm observations is to check the statistical correlations between prices. This data is published and can be easily found online.
Why is that?
After accepting the assumption that markets a correlated, there is the opportunity to develop new knowledge in order to better ones trading. It does not matter what tools you use, knowing the market direction improves profitability. If I use the Ocean model, by watching the river, I will see that if gravity changes the speed of the river will change with it. There for I can bet for the level of any river by observing the level of any other river. This is not true for the Earth because the gravity does not change. However in the model gravity is determined by Demand and Supply and is not stable.
Further imagine that when gravity changes, there is time needed for the change to happen. Same as reality, where we know that gravity travels with the speed of light. So if you are in any point in the Earth that is closer to the center, and the center is the gravity core, you will have earlier information about the speed of the river than, any body being on higher altitudes. So you can predict 100% what will be the speed of the stream up hill. Before the speed actually changes.
Why that is so that in the market world rules are different, than those of the physical reality?
Look first how markets are designed. Every market price is composed of instrument traded against a currency. The price is measured in currency. And after the British lost the Second World War this currency is mainly American Dollars. That is the direct channel for the connection between all markets except some Forex pairs and T bills.
•
• EUR/USD - $
• Equity - $
• Gold - $
• Oil - $
•
If any of these instruments’s price changes, then it influences the demand/supply of US dollar. This in its terms changes the balance in all other instruments that trade dollars. Can you see the waves?
There are two exceptions, which need to be discussed. First are the Treasury bills. The initial publishing of this instrument is a different process. Here the price of the instrument is the interest itself. I will stop here in order to not over complicate, but if you watch a graph of T bills, it will be negatively correlated with EUR/USD. And if one watches the yields plotted, they will be positively correlated to the euro.
The second exception is Forex Market pairs that do not include the American dollar and are not directly interconnected with the dollar currencies. These markets can be followed by any other Forex pairs, which include them.
As a trader this information is very helpful for me, when I form my daily anticipation for market direction. For example in trend following. If technical analysis shows bullish signal and not all markets have clear direction, I do not trade the set up.
Reality is Created by Fiction!
