EUR/USD: We finally got into the 1.08-fifties. The continued weakness in the Pound lead to a bid tone on the EUR/GBP pair which led to buying in the EUR/USD pair and although the fundamentals said 1.10 should not be breached, the low volume during the holiday kept the latter pair inflated. We've cut some positive positions and will look to manage the remaining open positions throughout the rest of the day and into 2016 if required. It's just not sensible to leave the whole lot running at this crucial time.
EUR/USD, Friday's US NFP strong figure caused a spike lower in price action but not a continuation. There was a good reason for this: The spike caused a flurry of buy backs when the price action went lower through several key Bollinger band time frames where 95% of the price action will remain inside the bands. Interestingly, had the figure not been so strong, say around +200K jobs added, we might have seen a steady continuation lower in the pair. But this, coupled with the fact that 'cable' was being heavily sold, and a repeat of the recent trend to buy EUR/GBP as a hedge kept the EUR/USD pair elevated. This price action was also a repeat set up of the recent US interest rate hike, but without the subsequent sell off in the latter pair after it bounced from its lows post announcement.
Marx64, et al, GBP/USD trade, Brexit idea and lately a Morgan Stanley trade recommendation to short the pair to 1.3500. Goldman Sachs also recommend a short position on the pair with a long Dollar outlook going into this weeks FOMC.
Naturally we are unhappy with the results as they stand for March, nor for February, even though we eventually returned nearly +2% on our account (a lot more than an investor will get from a high street bank at the moment). Also, copy traders have the ability to set their own risk parameters via their broker platform and Signalstart.
Looking to the future our trades will be limited to 1 standard lot on a single currency pair trade. However, we shall be looking to introduce hedging: including trading in the same pair, but in the opposite direction, if required. This is something we have resisted until now because some copy traders may not currently have such a facility with their broker and by undertaking such action at the present moment in time might result in unnecessary loss to a copy trader’s account. Further details will be posted in due course before this strategy is implemented.
We will also be increasing the overall lot size to 3 standard lots.
Jumped into our short GBP/USD trade a tad too early but held on as Mark Carney had nowhere to go other than drop interest rates.Good start to the month overall. A/C now +295% with 90% positive strike rate this year.
Our new strategy is helping to keep our drawdown low. We'll be looking to to execute less trades next week in order to see out August - typically a quiet month - with a nice profit of over 11% and a 100% strike rate for the month.