Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE 討論

Open Date Close date Symbol Action Lots SL TP Open Price Close Price Pips Profit (USD) Duration Change
10.07.2011 07:31 10.18.2011 10:30 USDCAD Buy 0.21 - 1.02531 1.03806 1.02531 -127.5 -270.46 11d -1.52%
                                                                                                                                             ^
To give a little perspective, if if helps, $270 is the worst closed trade in trade history.

Open Date Close date Symbol Action Lots SL TP Open Price Close Price Pips Profit (USD) Duration Change
08.26.2011 17:44 08.26.2011 18:48 GBPUSD Buy 0.86 - - 1.62150 1.63178 102.8 884.08 1h 4m 6.94%
                                                  max lot size = 0.86

Good numbers out of Europe?

WHat does this mean... watching more drawdown.]

   spratrbo posted:
   Good numbers out of Europe?

WHat does this mean... watching more drawdown.]

Sorry, good numbers unfortunately means probably more drawdown

Price has found stability at 86.6% retrace, and seemed to be gathering momentum down.

Thinks that worked in our favor:
- Eurozone Jobless figures hitting all-time highs in Dec 2011, since 1998.
- Spain current account deficit
- Eurozone banks seeking to double their emergency funding with loans from the ECB.

i don't think anyone is paying attention to this so, let me bring it to everyone's attention. The EURCHF barrier of 1.2000 set by the SNB. There is a really big fight to push it down to 1.2000 right now that has been going on for a while. If the EURCHF breaks 1.2000, a MONSTER set of sellstops will be triggered.....the SNB will flood the market with CHF by buying up a butt-ton of EUR.....which is going to RAM the price of the EURUSD up. I think this has been staged to push the EURUSD up through the 1.3250 barrier. i am speculating of course....but this is what I am expecting. So, IF.....it breaks....the EURUSD is most likely going to see a 200+ pip day.....IF. (notice...it is a big IF)

   fughe posted:
   i don't think anyone is paying attention to this so, let me bring it to everyone's attention. The EURCHF barrier of 1.2000 set by the SNB. There is a really big fight to push it down to 1.2000 right now that has been going on for a while. If the EURCHF breaks 1.2000, a MONSTER set of sellstops will be triggered.....the SNB will flood the market with CHF by buying up a butt-ton of EUR.....which is going to RAM the price of the EURUSD up. I think this has been staged to push the EURUSD up through the 1.3250 barrier. i am speculating of course....but this is what I am expecting. So, IF.....it breaks....the EURUSD is most likely going to see a 200+ pip day.....IF. (notice...it is a big IF)

The last time SNB did the currency peg, EURUSD fell from 1.4284 to 1.3627. Down 600 pips. That's good for us.

Then hopefully the SNB isn't serious this time. If they are, then the Goldman & Sachs analyst may be right about that 1.3800 level in the EURUSD after all. I expect they will let the sellstops trigger, let the people enter the market short and then take a dump on the market and ram it up to around 1.2300.

How you guys feel about diversifying more pairs with TEA?

Would it become more complicated to monitor if more pairs start to trend too much?

I'm thinking of diversifying but if Tom's actually did missed out on manually closing the G/U ### like the ones he might have done for E/U ###, then maybe we'll need to consider more about this issue

   fughe posted:
   Then hopefully the SNB isn't serious this time. If they are, then the Goldman & Sachs analyst may be right about that 1.3800 level in the EURUSD after all. I expect they will let the sellstops trigger, let the people enter the market short and then take a dump on the market and ram it up to around 1.2300.

This is a cut n paste by an Royal Bank of Scotland analyst delivered to my MT4 news feed:


RBS has gvien the following trading strategy, trigger points, and support and resistance levels:

TRADING STRATEGY: Small shorts here adding to positions on the breaking of the 5 day moving average and the support levels between 1.3080/1.3100 targeting 1.3010 overall, stop through 1.3270.

TRIGGER POINTS:

1.3246 - The very significant 38.2% retracement of the previous range.

1.3080 - The key support level and previous resistance level through the holiday period.

1.3010 - A spike higher in December and around yesterday's high

SUPPORT LEVELS: 1.3080/1.3100, 1.3010, 1.2951, 1.2880

RESISTANCE LEVELS: 1.3246, 1.3436

-Markets seem to be trading very technically at the moment especially in the short term; note that the overnight low fell at the former resistance level at 1.3080.1.3080 was the level that I (analyst) talked a lot about following the Christmas holiday period after the market broke down from there and its sell off accelerated. So to follow on from yesterday's theme of a strong resistance at the 1.3246 level (38.2% retracement from the previous range) price action here looks to be sandwiched between the 2.

-My bias here follows on from yesterday's and the next move looks more likely from the charts to be to the downside once that support at 1.3080 has been broken, keep stops from yesterday above the resistance at 1.3270 and target the 1.2950 overall.

-Should I be wrong and the market manage to break above the 1.3246 level then I think there really is some room for this to break 2 figures higher to 1.3436.

Nonetheless, Sive Morten's analysis parallels my earlier technical review. Price should easily push to neckline of 1.3050 if no further news to derail us.

I just figured i would throw on my technical analysis for the heck of it. My analysis shows to expect a bounce @1.2960 area Guess we will see what happens. 30min chart for ease of viewing.

For the braver people out there... I saw breakeven on EURUSD and I took it! Closed all my positions manually on both troubled accounts.

Now I can deal better with GBPUSD DD.

Ivan (or anyone) GBPUSD has now opened a 0.21 short position while deactivated!
I have deactivated it after 0.12 and since then it has opened a 0.15 and just now a 0.21??!

Please can you clarify what needs to be done to have the existing positions managed but no more positions entered?

Thanks

   tradingshed posted:
   For the braver people out there... I saw breakeven on EURUSD and I took it! Closed all my positions manually on both troubled accounts.

Now I can deal better with GBPUSD DD.

Ivan (or anyone) GBPUSD has now opened a 0.21 short position while deactivated!
I have deactivated it after 0.12 and since then it has opened a 0.15 and just now a 0.21??!

Please can you clarify what needs to be done to have the existing positions managed but no more positions entered?

Thanks

If you read the v1.89 release notes, you will realise that deactivation only means it will not open another basket of trades. However, it will continue to add positions and manage the current basket.

If you want to override the EA, you need to press the 'stop EA trading' button on MT4 toolbar

   forexpipmaker posted:
   

   tradingshed posted:
   For the braver people out there... I saw breakeven on EURUSD and I took it! Closed all my positions manually on both troubled accounts.

Now I can deal better with GBPUSD DD.

Ivan (or anyone) GBPUSD has now opened a 0.21 short position while deactivated!
I have deactivated it after 0.12 and since then it has opened a 0.15 and just now a 0.21??!

Please can you clarify what needs to be done to have the existing positions managed but no more positions entered?

Thanks

If you read the v1.89 release notes, you will realise that deactivation only means it will not open another basket of trades. However, it will continue to add positions and manage the current basket.

If you want to override the EA, you need to press the 'stop EA trading' button on MT4 toolbar

Just agreeing with what you said about the deactivation of trades.

Trading shed - Thats what I've been waiting for but my tP is at 32 and was still showing - £100. Just hope it's not turming back now gbp as opened a .21 trade

   forexpipmaker posted:
If you read the v1.89 release notes, you will realise that deactivation only means it will not open another basket of trades. However, it will continue to add positions and manage the current basket.

If you want to override the EA, you need to press the 'stop EA trading' button on MT4 toolbar

Julian, Thank you and nice blog you have.

Can you tell me how deep the basket goes before stopping?
0.01, 0.01, 0.01, 0.03, 0.06, 0.09, 0.12, 0.15, 0.21

This is a 9 trades depth.

@chrissav - I would probably take the £100 loss.

the E/U seems to be channelling...if it is, it may be up again to channel top.

dunno about G/U, it'll need to break swing low for today... my humble view...

Thanks for sharing Julian, Fughe :)

@Tradingshed, this is new territory for me too, so I can't comment. But I assume that for the next (touch wood), 2-3 trades, it will be 0.06 increments as well, and 0.09 thereafter.

What I did was Stopped EA trading, and been re-entering the largest lot with 15 pip trailing stop. Rather effective and limiting risk at the same time.

tradingshed - wish I could do the same, but aggregate positions are showing >£350 down on EUR/USD alone... When (if) it hits c. £100, I'd be tempted to bale also.

Lowered my RL to 1 on all pairs, but just checked in and noticed a sell at a position size of 2.10 (!) on GBP/USD made by TEA at 17:03 GMT. Previous sell on this pair was sized at: 1.50 on 26/01 and 1.80 on 25/01, both of which were too rich for me, so I reduced my RL to 1 on 26/01. So, would appreciate any ideas on this... Dustin/Ivan et al... why is the EA insisting on spiralling up the lot size?? (NB: this is a UK spreadbetting account, so a 'lot' is 10p, or equiv to 0.01...)

Anyone else seeing this going on?

   PocketGuy posted:
   tradingshed - wish I could do the same, but aggregate positions are showing >£350 down on EUR/USD alone... When (if) it hits c. £100, I'd be tempted to bale also.

Lowered my RL to 1 on all pairs, but just checked in and noticed a sell at a position size of 2.10 (!) on GBP/USD made by TEA at 17:03 GMT. Previous sell on this pair was sized at: 1.50 on 26/01 and 1.80 on 25/01, both of which were too rich for me, so I reduced my RL to 1 on 26/01. So, would appreciate any ideas on this... Dustin/Ivan et al... why is the EA insisting on spiralling up the lot size?? (NB: this is a UK spreadbetting account, so a 'lot' is 10p, or equiv to 0.01...)

Anyone else seeing this going on?

The issue is not so much spiraling the lot size. Arguably, this is the only trading style nowadays other than scalping, that is able to profit regardless of market condition. BUT! the more important question is why is there no built-in Trailing Stop feature to lock-in profits for the biggest lots, before they fall back into deeper DD, and re-enter the trades if they return to the threshhold again.

We could have made much money over the past 3 days had there been a 15 pip trailing stop