wdgannlive 討論

i have been studying w.d.gann for years but i didn't really understand THE w.d. gann trading method until 2010, and after understanding, I can immediately do very good trades. this account is to encourage people who has a hard time studying w. d. gann. and my guidebook is avaliable at https://www.wdgannlive.com.

my system: https://www.myfxbook.com/members/wdgannlive/wdgannlive/37271 <=sort of the top manned system, also note the other systems having 1000%+ return are all leveraged at 200/500:1, while mine is only 50:1.

Thanks for posting your record. It is very impressive result. Do you offer MT4 account management?

yes i manage account with commission level 30%-40% depended on the accumulated return. minimum account size: 2000usd. you can PM me for details.

Hi wdgannlive,

It is not clear exactly so I will ask ... is it possible for me to learn to trade this method myself so I will not lose 30-40% having it managed by someone else? I am a 'stay-at-home dad' (only without kids) so I have LOTS of time to learn and use this method myself if I can make the trades myself.

Thank you!

A few things don't make sense. The deposit was only a tiny $700, surely if you want to trade PAMM for people you would trade your own $50000 with Oanda ? Why only $700, what happened to the other $49000, in which of the hundreds of sub-accounts one can open with Oanda are this money and what are the losses. In short I have a vague suspicion that you are somehow running multiple accounts with Oanda and only showing us the one winning account.

I could be wrong, though since I don't know what measures Oanda takes to prevent fraudulent misrepresentation of trading ability. What would really help is showing us your stocktwits.com trading account. Some third party verification service or signal provider service.

Lets presume the main Oanda PAMM account is in the name of your mother. You then trade her account but as PAMM admin you can decide what trades to execute in which sub PAMM accounts. Lets presume you sister, brother and twenty other friends all open PAMM accounts in their name , but you manage the accounts, deciding what algorithm aligned with the phases of the moon or GANN method executes in which account This would allow you to only present those sub PAMM accounts making profits. The same scam is done with professional forex traders hiding behind companies, it is in fact the same individual trading 100 different methods for 100 different companies. He can't loose because he will always have naive investors subscribe to the winning companies. If we don't who the trader is and what his stocktwits.com account looks like, we can't deduce anything from any real account.

Thus this magnificent gain in a Real Oanda account , is it your only Oanda account in your personal name? Or is it an Oanda sub account from a main PAMM account. Myfxbook.com and Oanda should work out some way of assuring us that this isn't the case.

One person could for example open up 100 real accounts with $1000 in each. Since he would rake in lots of PAMM funds for the one account making 3000% he would write of the $99000 as an operational loss because he is taking 30% of the profits from the one account aligned with the temperature fluctuations in the North-Pole. He must take 30% because he knows that once the North-Pole cools down a bit the account will rapidly loose money, he has to cash in while he still has time.

You also withdrew your profits leaving only $43 dollars in your account, how do want to trade with $43? You expect people to give you $2000 minimum but only $43 dollars in your main personal account right. From you website you gave a bunch of trading signals based on Gann theory. But where are the losing trades, because if you apply Gann theory to every share in the sp500 you will find a random flux of stocks winning lets say 200 today , then 50 tomorrow. There is no statistical significance to Gann theory, it doesn't work. Oliver Velez does the same with his pivot points, SR, RS lines, he only selects those stocks which so happened to coincide with the theory, leaving out the stocks that didn't respond to the SR lines , pivot points.

hi, i am trying to answer questions here:

Lee: this method can be learnt by yourself. I have study w.d. gann for over 10 years to understand the current main theory. with the help of the guidebook 'a trader's note on w.d. gann's strategy' that I published at https://www.wdgannlive.com. I am expecting the learning curve can be reduced to 3-5 years where one can find shortcuts to study w.d. gann from the guidebook.

Stephanus: Thanks for the interesting scenario (lots-of-PAMM funds) raised. It is indeed possible to make such scenario. I wish to explain a bit about my background here: as said above, I have been studying w.d. gann for over 10 years, and it was not until 2010 that i start to make a real understanding on his theory. I always feel that one should not be selling/ be associated with w.d. gann unless one can repeat what w.d. gann did in the past. if one is familiar with w.d. gann, he will know w.d. gann did a famous interview for The Ticker and Investment Digest and which he has, in front of the reporter, compounded his trading capital ten times in a month.

the Oanda account was originally deposited with 123.29 on 24 May (as attached). the $706.56 usd that you read, was the deposit i made between 10th Mar 2007 till now. which of course, without the real understanding of w.d. gann make me lost most of the capital ($583.27). However, since I have understand the real theory now, the new capital of $123.29 has been expanded to $1,654.98 on 21 June. I do this just to illustrate one can repeat what w.d. gann did, but didn't expect the capital could be continued to expand at such high compound rate.

Anyways, please look at the number of trades that I made during that period and the position being switched during that month. (you can check it from trade history at myfxbook) you will notice I will at least need a 1,000 accounts for going all other possible scenarios. And what is the chance of having that 1 out of 1,000 accounts that happens to have the same account name under myself? I will let you do the calculation yourself.

for the forecasts posted at https://www.wdgannlive.com. they are all posted way ahead of the actual forecasted date. and they are the only forecasts i made. i also placed the wrongly-forecasted example there. please kindly read the website throughly. i know people are cautions on these forecasts and you can use website like https://web.archive.org/ (this website record all webpages being uploaded on a certain website; but you will need to wait 3 more months to verify this, for it doesn't publish website archives until 6 months has passed) to check the posts i made back in April, and you will know those are the only forecasts which i had made.

Cheers,
Michael

Your last trade was on 21 June 2010, even if you have $43 with Oanda, since they allow penny lots, you can still trade the account. It is clear that you have no intention of making another trade in this account, thus one can't evaluate the track record over an extended period. One would need at least 7 months of monthly equity gain with at least a 70% win rate before one could conclude that a trader is riding the markets and not the markets taking him and his PAMM clients for a ride. Ideally one should have 12 months of equity gains every month, or the probability is to high that it was just the random market flux resulting in gains. In a gambling house you have these machines each with a paw-paw, banana and monkey with a cloud-coo-coo land expression on his face. You pull the lever , out of 100 machines there will always be one machine where you have three paw-paws lining up. But in the long run that machine won't be a winner every time, which is why trading contests suffer from survivevailist bias. Back tested systems have data-snooping bias.

See if you can spot why the performance is fraud:
'...An equal weighted composite of managed programs that trade currency futures and/or cash forwards in the inter bank market. In 2010 there are 119 currency programs included in the index....'
https://www.barclayhedge.com/research/indices/cta/sub/curr.ht ml


These are money managers, but they can submit selectively only those trading results from the 1000 separate forex offshore accounts hidden in 1000 separate Swiss bank accounts they are running. Since they have lots of naive investors giving them money to trade forex they can setup lots of real trading accounts and only submit those 5 accounts out of 1000. You need to know who is the trader you are dealing with , he must have a stocktwits.com account, must be posting live real-time trades. An historical account even with a tax return from a company is usually fraud.

Only exception would be an individual who provides you with his SARS tax return for his personal income tax. If he won't take chances fooling SARS he probably won't be able to fool you.

A company would need to be audited by Kpmg but not even this means anything as the Enron debacle with the auditing firm covering the losses. Think about it if even a trading firm with a license to trade like Enron could cover up their losses then how are these companies not covering up their losing accounts only telling you about their winning accounts?

Another issue is that GS can't trade: Only individual star trades working for GS can trade. Thus if a company gives you some result for 2009, the actual trader who generated those results might have left. One trader could for example setup 3000 Forex trading companies running EA's tuned to the Saros cycle and only submit those winning statements to barclayhedge.com that turned a profit.

You wrote '...However, since I have understand the real theory now....' , this is a classical grammar mistake from people posting from Kazakhstan. I have a vague suspicion that you could be the same person posting 5000%, 3000% and 800% trading results in the top ten under systems. Myfxbook.com can only do so much, it would be difficult for them to identify sockpuppets running 3000 accounts on cloud-computing systems.

hi, i am not associated with anyone in Kazakhtstan and I am based in Hong Kong. I understand there are a lot of spam/ scam in the market which it is good to be questionable on the every detail any vendor provides. i have also pointed the fact that all the 1000%+ return posted here at myfxbook are all generated by 200/500: 1 margin ratio. to me, that is like super fancy system. i trade with 50:1, and when i am at full margin, i cannot stand any market drawback of 2% (260 pips) (otherwise it will kill all my capital). I can hardly imagine any consistent system winning good return, with only 0.2% or 0.5% buffer, i.e. you cannot be wrong more than 65 pips(0.5%) or 26 pips (0.2%). that is just crazy.

Look again at the equity curve from https://www.barclayhedge.com/research/indices/cta/sub/curr.html

Note how the curve makes new highs, year upon year. Bur they wrote: '...To see historical data on the number of programs included in the Barclay Currency Traders Index, click here...'

In other words only those currency funds they wished to include to reflect a good equity return was included, what about the currency funds that didn't make money- where are they? Thus their system suffers from data-snooping bias , a form of misrepresentation fraud. The market follows a random walk, very few traders would be able to have such an equity curve after 5 years.

stephanusR posted:
    Look again at the equity curve from https://www.barclayhedge.com/research/indices/cta/sub/curr.html

..................................
 The market follows a random walk, very few traders would be able to have such an equity curve after 5 years.

If your compounded annual return is 7.74% then it really should no be a problem to maintain that curve for anyone with the patience to look at such low returns even if you manage multimillion dollar fund.
On the other hand I understand that this may be an account purposely set up and making small but consistent gains for marketing reasons. Still, there is many people that would be very happy with such results, about twice the bonds with probably limited risk since the trade size must be pretty small so even if it goes bad it has no influence on the account.

robw135 posted:
    

stephanusR posted:
    Look again at the equity curve from https://www.barclayhedge.com/research/indices/cta/sub/curr.html

..................................
 The market follows a random walk, very few traders would be able to have such an equity curve after 5 years.

If your compounded annual return is 7.74% then it really should no be a problem to maintain that curve for anyone with the patience to look at such low returns even if you manage multimillion dollar fund.
On the other hand I understand that this may be an account purposely set up and making small but consistent gains for marketing reasons. Still, there is many people that would be very happy with such results, about twice the bonds with probably limited risk since the trade size must be pretty small so even if it goes bad it has no influence on the account.

Maybe I am naive, but considering an anomaly of world war III, then I would think 7% would be quite easy with the right leverage and foresight. If you are trading a small sized account. I guess the problem is when you are trying to trade 10M account, then anything you do will impact the market if you have only a couple strategies so I guess more difficulty is ahead for larger accounts.

I don't think 10M will have any effect on this market in the major pairs except for the second that you place that trade it may drive it a few pips and if you spread that trade into smaller trades no effect at all.
As far as leverage I'm thinking you can probably do 7% per year with no leverage at all or max 1:5 would need to be used.

Anyway, just theoretical thinking since I would never be happy with such low returns while actively trading, also leverage is a tool like any other and is there to be used but with caution so I always plan to use it whenever possible (I know what Buffet said about leverage but I don't hold him to be the saint like many people do).

That said the issue of diminishing returns with larger and larger investments is very real and is becoming worse every month as there is less and less opportunities for the largest funds to invest except to be trading the same stuff between themselves. However, most of us here have nothing to worry about for a long long time and I expect only about 1% of us will ever make it far enough to worry about that issue.

R

robw135 posted:
    I don't think 10M will have any effect on this market in the major pairs except for the second that you place that trade it may drive it a few pips and if you spread that trade into smaller trades no effect at all.
As far as leverage I'm thinking you can probably do 7% per year with no leverage at all or max 1:5 would need to be used.

Anyway, just theoretical thinking since I would never be happy with such low returns while actively trading, also leverage is a tool like any other and is there to be used but with caution so I always plan to use it whenever possible (I know what Buffet said about leverage but I don't hold him to be the saint like many people do).

That said the issue of diminishing returns with larger and larger investments is very real and is becoming worse every month as there is less and less opportunities for the largest funds to invest except to be trading the same stuff between themselves. However, most of us here have nothing to worry about for a long long time and I expect only about 1% of us will ever make it far enough to worry about that issue.

R

I think maybe 1% is a little optimistic! :) :)

You are spot on the leverage. However, I don't need as much leverage the way I trade (some items), but I do use it. It helps me get through the tough spots without stress. :) I guess if you have too many multiple tough spots and your leverage is very high... then... :(