EURCHF Exchange Rate

Germany's consumer confidence is set to rise again in May to hit a two-year high as households turned more optimistic about future income, adding to the list of positive indicators that suggests the biggest euro area economy is likely to undergo a very shallow recession. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index rose to -24.2 in May from a revised value of -27.3 in April.

Germany's business sentiment strengthened for the third straight month to a near one-year high in April on a notable improvement in confidence among service providers. The business confidence index climbed to 89.4 in April from a revised 87.9 in March, monthly survey results from the ifo Institute showed on Wednesday. This was the highest score since May 2023, when the reading was 91.4.

The Swiss franc weakened against other major currencies in the European session on Wednesday.

The euro area private sector expanded the most in nearly a year in April as the continuing downturn in the manufacturing activity was offset the strength in the service sector, flash survey results from S&P Global showed on Tuesday. The composite output index registered 51.4 in April, up from 50.3 in March. The reading stayed above economists' forecast of 50.8.

Expert market comment made by senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: CHF renewed its decline on weak inflation

Last Thursday marked the conclusion of February, closing with a surge in equities. The market attributed these movements to the in-line Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print, which alleviated concerns of another spike in inflation.

The CHF's Mardi Gras celebrations are devoid of any late indulgence, as its February losses have deepened due to the unexpected downturn in the Swiss CPI data. Credit Agricole longstanding warning about the CHF's robust start to 2024, coupled with the SNB's altered stance on FX interventions in December, has manifested in the currency's struggles.

The EUR/USD pair has bounced back from its recent low of 1.0450, but it could struggle to find enough buyers as it approaches the 1.0530/1.0550 range. The US dollar remains an unattractive sell, and there is currently no compelling narrative in the eurozone to counter the exceptionalism story in the United States.