ATFX Market Outlook 12th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 12th June 2025

Oil Jumps 4% on Trade Deal Hopes and Mideast Tensions

Market HighlightOn Wednesday, the trading day, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Washington and Beijing had agreed on a framework deal to revive a fragile trade truce, which includes a consensus on tariff structures. Meanwhile, the U.S. CPI for May was lower than expected, with headline inflation at 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) and core CPI rising by just 0.1% month-over-month (MoM), marking the fourth consecutive month of downside surprises. Trump reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to reduce rates.

U.S. equities finished mixed, with the S&P 500 closing lower as traders became uneasy about rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, a softer inflation report helped alleviate concerns that tariffs would intensify price pressures. Treasury yields declined for a third consecutive session, bolstered by both dovish inflation data and progress in U.S.-China trade talks. The U.S. dollar weakened as cooling inflation heightened expectations that the Fed might resume rate cuts sooner than previously anticipated.

Gold prices climbed, bolstered by increasing market confidence that the Fed might start cutting rates in September. Spot gold settled at $3,353.26 per ounce, rising by 0.9%. Crude oil surged more than 4% to a two-month high after reports surfaced that the U.S. is preparing to evacuate some personnel from its embassy in Iraq amid rising security risks in the region.

Key Outlook

Markets are watching the UK’s April GDP, expected to remain at 1.1% YoY, likely keeping the BoE on hold next week. In the U.S., May PPI is predicted to rise to 2.6% YoY, with the monthly reading rebounding in line with the slight CPI increase. Jobless claims are expected to remain steady at around 240,000.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB Trade Balance & Industrial Production APR ** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

20:30 US PPI MAY *** 

Tomorrow

12:30 JP Industrial Production YoY APR ** 

14:00 EU GERMANY CPI Final MAY ***

17:00 EU Trade Balance & Industrial Production APR ** 

22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUN *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1543 / 1.1558

· Support: 1.1495 / 1.1476

The EUR/USD broke above 1.1480 as softer U.S. CPI data boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut, with trade optimism lifting risk sentiment. Technically, the pair cleared key resistance at 1.1495 and may retrace back toward the 1.1495–1.1476 zone, which may act as support before a potential move toward 1.1543.

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3635 / 1.3662

· Support: 1.3524 / 1.3503

GBP/USD extended gains to 1.3590, lifted by broad dollar weakness following softer U.S. CPI data. Technically, the pair broke above a descending trendline and reclaimed the 1.3524 structure. Price is now consolidating above this former resistance zone, which may act as support ahead of a potential move toward 1.3635.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 144.74 / 145.11

· Support: 143.55/143.19

The USD/JPY fell to 144.58 as U.S. Treasury yields decreased following the release of softer CPI data and renewed tensions in the Middle East. Technically, the pair dropped below key support at 144.74, which has increased short-term bearish momentum. If the price fails to recover above this level, further downsides towards 143.55 and 143.19 remain probable. The rising trendline below acts as crucial medium-term support.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 69.04/ 69.56

· Support: 67.38/ 66.86

Crude oil surged to $69.29 due to tensions in the Middle East following reports of the U.S. embassy evacuation. After breaking through resistance at $69.04, the price consolidated near $67.80. Maintaining a position above $66.86 and the trendline could facilitate a retest of the $69.56 resistance level.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3387/3403

· Support: 3335/3319

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 36.89/37.37

· Support: 35.92/35.31

Gold rallied above $3,365 as softer U.S. CPI data boosted expectations for a Fed rate cut, while geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased demand for safe havens. Technically, XAU/USD has reclaimed the mid-channel structure and is approaching resistance at $3,387. Holding above the $3,335 support zone could pave the way for a move towards $3,403.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 43191/43414

· Support: 42618/42446

The Dow Futures closed flat at 42,865.77 amid focus on Middle East tensions and U.S.–China trade progress. Soft CPI reinforced rate-cut bets. Technically, a pullback toward trendline support near 42,618 may lead to a rebound toward 43,191 if support holds.

NAS100

· Resistance: 22003/22085

· Support: 21757/21651

NAS100 fell by 0.50% to 19,615.88 as geopolitical concerns overshadowed optimism from soft inflation data, with Nvidia and Amazon impacting the tech sector. Technically, the price was retraced towards the 21,757 level. Maintaining a position above 21,651 may preserve the bullish structure, with the potential to retest resistance near 22,003.

 BTC

· Resistance: 110825/112035

· Support: 106841/105611

Bitcoin extended its gains above $108,000 but struggled near $110,375 and is currently consolidating around $108,500. BTC dropped below a crucial trendline at $109,450, and momentum indicators suggest weakening upward momentum. Immediate resistance is found at $110,825–$112,035; failure to break higher may trigger a pullback towards $106,841 and $105,611.

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