ATFX Market Outlook 18th June 2025

ATFX Market Outlook 18th June 2025

Safe-Haven Surge: Geopolitical Tensions and Fed in the Spotlight

Market HighlightSoft U.S. retail sales and industrial production in May point to a weakening economy. U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday as the Israel-Iran conflict entered its fifth day, deepening investor anxiety. The U.S. military is deploying fighter jets to the Middle East. The Dow Jones fell 0.7%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.84%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.9%.

U.S. Treasury yields declined as concerns over escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran boosted demand for safe-haven bonds. The dollar strengthened against major currencies, including the euro and the yen, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weak U.S. data added to investor nervousness.

Gold prices edged up slightly, supported by safe-haven demand amid the Israel-Iran standoff, though a stronger dollar limited gains. Spot gold settled up 0.16% at $3,388.37 per ounce, while silver surged to a 13-year high. Oil prices jumped over 4% as the conflict continued, despite key energy infrastructure and trade routes not yet being materially impacted.

Key Outlook

The UK will release its May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. In April, the CPI rose sharply from 2.6% to 3.5%—the highest level since January 2024 —driven by rising costs in energy, water, broadband, and TV services. If inflation continues to surprise to the upside, it could delay the Bank of England's rate-cut plans. While U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for a holiday, the Fed's policy decision, scheduled for early Thursday morning, remains a key focus. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady and strike a cautious tone, but markets will closely examine the updated dot plot for signs of whether two rate cuts are still on the table this year.

Key Data and Events Today:

14:00 GB CPI MAY *** 

17:00 EU CPI Final MAY *** 

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims *** 

Tomorrow

US Holiday

02:00 Fed Interest Rate Decision *** 

02:30 Fed Press Conference *** 

15:30 SNB Interest Rate Decision *** 

16:00 SNB Press Conference *** 

19:00 BoE Interest Rate Decision & Minutes *** 

EURUSD

· Resistance: 1.1570 / 1.1601

· Support: 1.1470 / 1.1439

EUR/USD broke below 1.15, hitting a low of 1.1475 as safe-haven flows lifted the US Dollar after Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” The DXY surged to a four-day high, reaching nearly 98.80. Strong German ZEW data was overshadowed by uncertainty from the Fed and tensions in the Middle East. Technically, the pair may retrace toward 1.1470 - 1.1439. 

GBPUSD

· Resistance: 1.3453 / 1.3480

· Support: 1.3384 / 1.3363

GBP/USD sank over 1.2% to near 1.3400 amid Middle East tensions and weak US retail sales. After breaking below the 1.3453–1.3480 support zone, the pair remains pressured. Failure to reclaim this area may lead to further decline toward 1.3384–1.3363.

USDJPY

· Resistance: 145.77 / 146.09

· Support: 144.76/144.44

The USD/JPY extends its gains to 145.19 as geopolitical tensions and anticipation of the Fed's actions support the dollar. The BoJ held rates at 0.5% and signaled slower bond tapering. Technically, the pair remains in an ascending channel; a bounce from the 144.76–144.44 support zone may target 145.77.

US Crude Oil Futures (JULY)

· Resistance: 76.25/ 78.81

· Support: 69.69/ 67.70

WTI crude rose nearly 1% to around $73.76/bbl, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions and a sharp 10.13M barrel drop in U.S. API inventories. Technically, price faces minor resistance near 73.20. A pullback toward the 69.69–67.70 support zone could attract buyers, with potential upside toward the 76.25 resistance level.

Spot Gold

· Resistance: 3416/3429

· Support: 3374/3361

Spot Silver

· Resistance: 37.44/37.60

· Support: 36.89/36.67

Spot gold traded near $ 3,384.94/oz, approaching the $ 3,400 mark, supported by rising safe-haven demand as Iran’s Supreme Leader vowed to "never compromise." Technically, a break below $3,374 may lead to further downside toward $3,361. Holding above this zone could see a rebound toward the $3,416 resistance.

Dow Futures

· Resistance: 42696/42906

· Support: 42027/41820

Dow Futures fell 0.70% to 42,215.80 amid rising geopolitical tensions. Energy stocks rose in tandem with oil, and defence names gained, with Lockheed Martin up 2.6%. Technically, the price remains below a descending trendline. A break above 42,220 could lead to a test of 42,696, while failure may retarget 42,027 support.

NAS100

· Resistance: 21824/21907

· Support: 21623/21557

The NAS100 fell 0.91% to 19,521.09 as Israel-Iran tensions persisted and the U.S. expanded its military presence, weighing on tech stocks. Technically, the index found support near the ascending trendline. Holding above 21,623 could pave the way for a retest of resistance at 21,907.

 BTC

· Resistance: 106721/108203

· Support: 104326/103128

Bitcoin briefly hit $108,780 on bullish news from the GENIUS bill and Thai tax relief. However, Trump’s “evacuate Tehran” warning triggered a 2% drop to $106,421. Technically, BTC remains capped below 106,721 with key support at 103,128; short-term bias remains bearish.

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