Trading Journal

Last friday US indices closed without major swings. American investors have shown little permeability to the strong devaluations observed in Europe. The reason for such resilience is that the strength of the Euro (dollar weakness) detracts from European companies' competitiveness but adds to American companies. Perhaps the American indices would have been able to prolong this week's rally if General Electric's results had not been badly received by the market. Given the relevance of GE in the American industry and in the global economy, the devaluation of its stock had a direct impact on many stocks and on the general sentiment of investors. Despite all the symbolism that GE assumes, its disappointing results do not shake the positive signs given by the earnings season as a whole.

In the pre-opening, the European indices traded without great variations. The Euro was trading at a slight rise, which should exert pressure on European markets. Yesterday, it should be noted that 10-year German yields were trading again at levels below 0.50%. Now, if German yields remain below 0.50%, the odds, from a technical point of view, of a yield decline are higher than a rise. With regard to the Euro, the most relevant is not so much the German interest rates, but its comparison with the American ones. While the decline in US yields is more pronounced than that of the German bunds, the trend will be for the Euro to appreciate, with all other factors remaining constant. In sectoral terms, the car should deserve a particular highlight. Having been one of the driving forces behind European (and especially German) markets in recent years, in recent months this sector has been under sales pressure as a result of the scandals of pollutant gas emissions, the strength of the Euro and the drop in sales in Europe, After 6 years of expansion.

Asian markets closed without a common trend, though prudence over today’s Fed meeting has dominated investor sentiment. The Nikkei closed with gains near 0.50%, favored by the devaluation of the Yen against the Dollar.

After giving some signs of correction yesterday, the Fed's statement, which fits sharply in investors' expectations, boosted the common currency. Generally, when a given event fits investors' expectations, there is a tendency for financial markets to continue, at least in the short term, the underlying trend. This pattern is different from that in which the market expects a favorable factor or event and reacts in advance, so-called buy on rumors sell on facts.

Without any news, the Fed meeting turned out to be a painless event, allowing investors to focus on the other issue of the moment: the earnings season. In this chapter, the news has been favorable, with the vast majority of companies reporting numbers that beat forecasts.

According to the latest news, Secretary of State for Defense Jim Mattis and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will have reported that the Trump Administration continues to seek diplomatic resolutions with Pyongyang. Still, investors should continue to monitor developments in relation to the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

The lowering of the risk of a US-North Korean military conflict has restored some confidence to European markets that have started the week with significant gains, recovering from last week's losses.

The minutes of the last meeting of the FED, held on 25 and 26 July, will be published today. In this event, the Federal Reserve kept the fed-funds interest rate range unchanged at 1.00% -1.25% and signaled that the balance-sheet normalization process will soon begin. The first step will most likely be the reduction of asset purchases with the money coming from repayment of maturing bonds. To justify this decision is the positive view the FED has of the economy. With the economy operating at full employment, with the creation of jobs being labeled “solid” even with the 4.40% unemployment rate, with consumption and investment growing, the Central Bank believes that are gathered the conditions to reduce its balance sheet (amounting to 4 500 000 M.USD). According to CNBC, with these economic data published yesterday, expectations for a rise in interest rates in December increased to 54% from 37% the previous day.

During today's session, investors should react to the publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting. On the other hand, while fears about tensions between North Korea and the US have softened, worries about the situation Politics in the US worsened after US President Donald Trump had closed two consultative bodies on economic matters yesterday in the face of the resignation of prominent businessmen on board.

Fears about the terrorist attack in Barcelona, as well as political uncertainty in the US and still some geopolitical tension shall led investors to opt for safe haven assets.

European markets were downtrending, reflecting the behavior of the US market, as well as renewed fears about tensions between the US and Korea, with the news that the US and South Korea Start their annual military exercises today, which are expected to last for 10 days between 21 and 31 August and will be a test of North Korea’s behavior. Although planned for some time now, these exercises come at a delicate time, after several weeks of an exchange of war rhetoric between Washington and Pyongyang that drew the worst fears, although last week tensions have subsided with statements by Kim Jong that said Which for now would contain his plans. Expectations are mostly concentrated at the Jackson Hole Conference at the end of the week.

These days, the environment in the global stock markets is marked by an expectation of the Annual Central Bank Conference to be held in Jackson Hole later this week, although most analysts are not expecting Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi , Presidents of the FED and the ECB, to bring to the market great news about the conduct of their monetary policies.

In the global markets, there is a lack of interesting ideas and today, against the backdrop of the relative August calm in the financial markets, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech. The speech and comments of the head of the ECB will undoubtedly have an impact on the market, and in view of the fact that many participants of the financial market traditionally are on holiday during August, we can expect a price surge in volatility during the speech. Most likely in the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi there will be no unexpected statements that can provoke significant price movements in the markets, but you should be cautious not to overload your positions with excessive margins, remembering that liquidity in the market in August is not at its highest level. Of course, hints that the ECB is not going to reduce liquidity will support the demand for risky assets in the short term. But in this case we should not expect a rapid growth in the stock markets. Current prices for risky assets already include such statements.
Meanwhile, China managed to stop the falling impulse of slowing down in the economy, by pumping liquidity into the financial markets. Along with this, China's largest state banks are actively supporting large infrastructure projects, which in turn makes it possible to compensate for the outflow of private capital. Such macroeconomic events push up indices of industrial metals, which are near their highs over the past few years.
In general, before the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which will take place at the end of the week, the markets will consolidate near current levels. The time for revision of existing positions and entry into new ones, most likely, is after the announcement of the results of the symposium.

Mario Draghi’s intervention in Lindau (Germany) will be closely monitored and may lead to some volatility in the markets.

In a speech delivered yesterday in Lindau, Germany, Mario Draghi gave no indication of the next steps in terms of monetary policy, only emphasizing that the recent financial crisis forced economists to readjust the existing economic models.

The monetary policy outlook on both sides of the Atlantic is now focused on the gradual removal of the ECB’s current expansionary measures and on the normalization of the balance sheet by the FED, after the Central Bank has begun the cycle of rising interest rates.

There is nothing which is able to reduce your frustration until make sure a trading discipline as well controlling emotions. We traders feel frustrated when we lose, and only due to lacking trading discipline and because of emotions we always fall a great loss.

The US market ended higher on Friday. The day was marked by the Conference of Central Banks in Jackson Hole, but more specifically by the interventions of the Presidents of the FED, Janet Yellen, and the ECB, Mario Draghi. These speeches were long awaited, but neither offered any significant signal on the conduct of their respective monetary policies. Janet Yellen focused her speech on banking regulation and improvements in the US economy, while Mario Draghi focused more on his concern about protectionism.

North Korea's firing of a missile over Japan has had an immediate impact on the financial markets. Stocks reacted negatively, and the Dollar fell to a four-month low against the Yen, although it subsequently recovered. Investors opted for safe haven assets, such as Gold, US Treasuries and the Yen. The Gold price has peaked since November last year.