TendencyForex ' s Posts - lapu 5

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 08:06

MXN: Trade Balance at 13:00 BST for February. Citi Economics expects USD -0.18bn vs USD -6.29bn prior. We estimate a 4.5% MoM growth for total exports (vs -5.3% MoM prior) on higher manufacturing and oil exports and a 2.5% MoM growth for total imports (vs a -3.4% MoM prior).

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 08:06

NOK: Norges Bank Deputy Governor Borsum speaks at 11:00 BST. This will be the fi rst speechfollowing last week’s relati vely hawkish Norges Bank meeting, where policy rates were raised +25bps and terminal rate forecasts were revised upwards. While it is unlikely Borsum’s comments will move markets, we listen for clues on potential monetary easing at the end of the cycle, as implied by the revised terminal rate forecast that expects rates to reach 2.50% by Q1 2024 but then fall to 2.30% by yearend 2025.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 08:05

HKD: Trade Balance HKD at 09:30 BST for February. Citi Economics expects HKD -27.2bn vsHKD 6.6bn prior. We expect trade growth to be affected by holidays as well as Covid-related truck traffic across the border. Combined, January and February data are likely to show signs of softening, and we expect the same softness in March due to anti-pandemic measures in the Honk Kong and Guangdong area.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 08:05

GBP: BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on the economy at 12:00 BST. CitiEconomics thinks the key factors to look for in comments will be 1) the perceived hit to demand owing to recent energy price moves; 2) the potential for sustained domestically driven inflation in the face of such pressures; and 3) concerns about the BoE’s own institutional credibility (and inflation expectations). We expect Bailey to continue to guide towards further near term tightening, but only a limited scope for further moves.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 08:02

JPY dipped 0.78% intraday, continuing losses last week. The move was triggered by a BoJ bondpurchase offer early in Asian trading, as the 10 year JGB yield approached 0.245%, close to the0.25% threshold. As we noted last Friday, the buying operation has further emphasized the policy divergence, which has resulted in the drop in JPY.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 08:01

Oil prices have dropped on open partly as a result of Houthi rebels pausing hostilities againstSaudi Arabia on Saturday in a three day truce, whil e China’s troubles wit h Covid have raisedconcerns on demand from the worl d’s largest crude oil import er. WTI was t rading at -2.90% and Brent was seen trading at -2.58%. NOK saw losses of 0.40% alongside crude oil prices.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 08:00

The strong momentum downwards for treasuries continues, following an absolute bloodbath on Friday that saw 5y sell off over 20bp and 10y yields near 2.5%. Today, 10y yields have broken above that 2.5% level in yet another major bear flattening move with 2y and 3y yields both selling off over 10bp from the NY EOD levels in another aggressive bear-flattening move. 5s30s have inverted for the first time since 2006, in a day when JGBs were also lower despite the announcement twice over of the Bank of Japan's unlimited fixed-rate operation. The most striking thing about the move in front-end is...

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 07:58

USD found a bid in Asian markets today, supported by higher UST yields. G10 currencies were mostly down against the dollar with the exception on AUD. Losses were led by JPY, NOK and CHF, which we elaborate more on below. UST yields surged, continuing the momentum from last Friday. The bear flattening move saw 2y yields lead the move at +9bps, with 30y yields at +5bps. We note that 5s30s have inverted for the first time since 2006, according to Bloomberg.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 07:57

Looking ahead, we note that Russia-Ukraine talks are set to continue in Turkey today. NOK and GBP will see Deputy Governor Borsum and Governor Andrew Bailey respectively, with both potentially of significant interest to markets. HKD and MXN will look forward to trade balance data.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 28, 2022 at 07:57

It was all about rates on Monday morning in Asia. UST yields surged in a bear flattening move, with 2y yields up 9bps, while US 5s30s inverted for the first time since 2006, according to Bloomberg. Global rates markets were brought along for the ride. Early Asian trading also saw JGB trade at 0.245%, close to the 0.25% threshold of the BoJ. A BoJ bond purchase offer announcement was seen shortly afterwards, with the intervention sending USDJPY soaring. In FX, USD saw a bid, with only AUD in the green in G10. JPY saw the biggest losses, as mentioned earlier, while NOK, CHF and NZD also saw sign...

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 14:41

Average hourly earnings growth slowed in the February employment report. Weexpect a rebound in March, but the pace should be below the run-rate from lastyear. Underlying wage growth is elevated, but a number of lead indicators havelevelled off. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings had outperformed alternative(more reliable) wage indicators, so some relative underperformance is likely.Overall, the labor market appears likely to continue improving even as fullemployment rapidly approaches. We expect continued downward pressure onthe unemployment rate. Wage growth should remain elevated, but anothe...

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 14:41

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) Forecast: 550kChange in Private Payrolls: 600kUnemployment Rate: 3.7%Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3% MoM / 5.4% YoYWe expect job gains to remain elevated in March at 550k. Lead indicators forthe labor market have picked up as the headwind from the Omicron wave haseased. PMI employment measures have improved and initial jobless claims havesteadily declined after rising to start the year.The unemployment rate is likely to continue to decline to 3.7%, a new postpandemiclow. Job openings have leveled off in the past few months, but areelevated when compared to the nu...

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 14:40

Personal Income (Feb) Forecast: 0.6% MoMPersonal Spending: 0.3%Real Personal Spending: -0.3%PCE Deflator: 0.6% MoM / 6.4% YoYCore PCE Deflator: 0.4% MoM / 5.5% YoYCore PCE inflation likely remained elevated in February. We expect thesequential monthly print to slow modestly to 0.4%, but the YoY reading shouldcontinue to pick up to 5.5%, a new cycle high. Headline inflation will be evenstronger at 0.6% MoM. Both core and headline are likely to peak in YoY termssoon, but near-term risks are to the upside as commodity strength and renewedsupply chain shocks in Asia put pressure on goods prices.In...

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 14:40

Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Mar) Forecast: 107.0We expect consumer confidence to fall for the third consecutive month to 107.0.Stock market turmoil, rising gasoline prices, and geopolitical tensions are likely tosend confidence lower. The gap between the UMich and Conference Boardmeasures of consumer optimism has widened even more in recent months, aselevated inflation dragged the UMich measure lower while a robust labor markethelped support the Conference Board measure.The divergence is likely to continue in the near term as rising commodity priceshit sentiment while the labor market con...

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 03:05

We expect consumer confidence to fall for the third consecutive month to 107.0, driven lower by stock market turmoil, rising gasoline prices, and geopolitical tensions.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 03:04

We expect headline ISM manufacturing to go sideways at 58.5 in March. Global and US growth momentum are falling from a high peak at the start of the year, and near-term risks are skewed to the downside.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 03:04

Core PCE inflation likely remained elevated in February, with the YoY reading picking up to 5.5%, a new cycle high.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 03:03

We expect job gains to remain elevated in March at 550k. Lead indicators for the labor market have picked up as the headwind from the Omicron wave has eased. The unemployment rate is likely to continue to decline to 3.7%, a new post-pandemic low. We expect a rebound in average hourly earnings.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 03:03

Focus next week will be on the employment report for March, as well as on PCE, ISM, and Conference Board consumer confidence.

Razor EA in Tirdzniecības sistēmas Mar 27, 2022 at 03:01

Inflation-related components:The manufacturing suppliers’ delivery times component shortened in theoUS (+3.8pt) and the UK (+2.9pt) but grew much longer in the Euro Area(-5.9pt) on new delays from the Omicron hit in Asia.DM services input prices surged by +3.2pt and output prices increased byo+1.5pt, pushing both series to all-time highs for the second consecutivemonth.Firm expectations of higher wage costs over the next 12 months peakedoin the February Markit Business Outlook Survey in the US, the Euro Area,and the UK.

EURUSD	1.08757	GBPUSD	1.26782	AUDUSD	0.6678
USDJPY	154.413	USDCAD	1.36225	USDCHF	0.90109

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