分析报告

Dollar extends slide as first 25bps Fed cut seen by June - Fed officials speak ahead of PCE inflation data later this week - Yen gains on reports the BoJ is considering exiting negative rates - Aussie and kiwi stretch rally, RBNZ decision awaited

Gold prices are extending their bullish rally towards a fresh six-month high of 2,018, holding well above the simple moving averages (SMAs) in the daily timeframe.

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Asian markets mixed, Japan down, China up. US Treasury steady. UK retail inflation at 17-month low (4.3%). BoE's Ramsden warns of persistent inflation. UK eyes Autumn Statement impact. Fed's Waller's outlook speech awaited. ECB speakers include Nagel, Lane, and Lagarde. Economic data: Eurozone M3 negative, US consumer confidence expected to fall. UK gilt yields retreat, pound above 1.26.

The Dollar Index (DXY), a popular gauge of the Greenback’s value against a basket of 6 major currencies, extended its drop to 103.40 (103.75) in thin holiday trade. The Canadian Loonie outperformed. The USD/CAD pair slid 0.7% to 1.3615, just over one-month lows from 1.3640 in the previous session.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to adhere to its stance that private consumption has exhibited a steadfast, moderate pace of growth, even in the face of challenges posed by ascending price levels. The BoJ anticipates that while there may be an impact on private consumption due to these price increases.

The eurozone PMIs bounced back a bit in November but still signalled contraction. The composite employment index dipped below 50 for the first time since the pandemic. While there was a re-acceleration in both input and output price inflation, reflecting wage pressure in the service sector.

At the commencement of this week, the US dollar has displayed continued weakening, particularly evident in its depreciation against the yen overnight. This sets the dollar index on a trajectory to register its initial monthly decline since July, poised to be the most significant in percentage terms since November of the previous year when it sharply decreased by -5.0%.

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Major pairs and gold climb to new highs as dollar sags. Inflation data and Fed speakers awaited for direction. Oil drifts lower ahead of OPEC+ decision

OPEC+ meeting expected to cut production; WTI crude oil remains in the red; US Core PCE index to soften; USDJPY fails to climb higher

U.S. long-term treasury yields have retraced to recent lows, adding sparking discussions about the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates next year; this has added downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, with the dollar index reaching its lowest level since August

The EUR/USD currency pair saw an uptick, reaching 1.0944 at the onset of the final week of November. This movement indicates a weakening of the US dollar against the Euro.

Expert market comment from senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich of the FxPro Analyst Team: Cryptocurrency traders pause after growth

Dollar pulls back on Thanksgiving as Fed cut bets weigh - Focus today turns to the preliminary S&P Global PMIs - Japan’s CPIs accelerate, corroborating a BoJ policy exit next year - Gold gains, oil loses more ground on OPEC delay

Gold gets rejected a tad below its recent 5-month peak - A failure to claim that level could validate a double top structure - While momentum indicators remain tilted to the upside

Oil dropped 1.55%, Aussie dollar steady, euro stable, dollar-yen sideways. Bank of England's digital pound proposal mixed, Tesla investing $2 billion in India, Zar Intelligence doubled revenue. Upcoming: US New Home Sales, Dallas Fed Index, Finland's Confidence, and CFTC Net Positions.

The U.S. equity market is set to return to normal trading hours after the Thanksgiving holiday; meanwhile, with the VIX index reaching its lowest level since January 2020. This suggests a heightened risk-on sentiment, potentially supporting bullish trends in the equity market while putting continued pressure on the U.S. dollar.

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Asia-Pacific markets down, US partial trading day after Thanksgiving. Japanese CPI up to 3.3%. Bank of England warns of high price pressures. UK consumer confidence improves to -24. German IFO survey expected to show weak activity. US PMIs and interest rate expectations in focus. UK bond yields rise post-Autumn Statement and strong PMI data.