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vontogr (togr)
Jun 10 2016 at 18:36
4862帖子
xgavinc posted:
As I thought, they don't seem to be worried about the EUR pairs... anyone think EUR may be volatile?

I believe it will have impact on EUR as well.

mlawson71
Jun 14 2016 at 08:32
1487帖子
It will have impact on all EUR and GBP pairs, in my opinion. As you can see here (https://smnweekly.com/tag/brexit/), most self-respecting brokers have hiked their margin requirements for these pair and the closer we get to the referendum, more and more of them do the same. I would avoid these pairs in the next ten days.

xgavinc
Jun 14 2016 at 10:17
235帖子
XM will inform clients in due time via mass email what their protocol will be (re margin / leverage). I set my EA's to halt opening new trades on EUR and GBP for the remainder of this month. Just wondering if other pairs may be dragged into the soup, like CHF (not EU or EEA member but is part of the single market - EFTA) and RUB (not that I trade RUB though).

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
vontogr (togr)
Jun 14 2016 at 10:39
4862帖子
lets say EUR drops a lot so based on eurusd USD will gather strength so USDCHF will go up. Does it make sense?

xgavinc
Jun 14 2016 at 10:52
235帖子
Unless the sentiment on the outcome is positive and EUR rises... and would the outcome, regardless, be favorable to Swiss arrangements?, in which case USD could do the inverse and CHF gains strength, or the pair doesn't budge. Ahh, the joys of Forex! X-)

I don't think the moves on other pairs would be as pronounced, but they are likely to move, which is what we traders want... direction is the tough one though.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
xgavinc
Jun 14 2016 at 10:59
235帖子
I wont be looking for quick gains either way, I'll stick to my trading plan and see what develops. I'm trading daily charts so it's not like I need any specific scalping decision.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
vontogr (togr)
Jun 15 2016 at 08:18
4862帖子
xgavinc
Jun 15 2016 at 08:57
235帖子
togr posted:
It seems Brexit wont happen:)
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/


Still a close call. History has proven polls to be unreliable, anything can still happen as the number of people who have not taken part in the poll far exceed those who have, and some who want to keep their vote secret will instinctively choose the opposite side when taking part in a poll. I am however confident that a Bremain is more likely if voters actually understand the pro's vs con's and were adequately informed with facts and not propaganda.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
vontogr (togr)
Jun 15 2016 at 15:32
4862帖子
xgavinc posted:
togr posted:
It seems Brexit wont happen:)
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/


Still a close call. History has proven polls to be unreliable, anything can still happen as the number of people who have not taken part in the poll far exceed those who have, and some who want to keep their vote secret will instinctively choose the opposite side when taking part in a poll. I am however confident that a Bremain is more likely if voters actually understand the pro's vs con's and were adequately informed with facts and not propaganda.

It could. But all brokers is sending emails about Brexit. Not referendum. It is like they had already left EU.

maximuss
Jun 16 2016 at 07:42
10帖子
Good oportunity for win money, isen´t it?

or, there where lots of bankrupts like Alpari, etc... with the CHF movement?

Im going to take Pop Corn and see :)

vontogr (togr)
Jun 16 2016 at 08:36
4862帖子
Well majority of brokers are prepared, they have decreased leverage like 10 times.

stian
Jun 16 2016 at 23:28
325帖子
Brexit campaign suspended.

Ozzie Matt (aeronthomas)
Jun 17 2016 at 00:55
1557帖子
betting book makers reducing chance of Brexit, maybe linked to killing of pro brexit politician and suspension of campaigning, pound has certainly really shot up!, euro recovered too

mlawson71
Jun 18 2016 at 08:31
1487帖子
Brokers are panicking ahead of Brexit though. (https://smnweekly.com/2016/06/17/brokers-seem-to-panic-ahead-of-uk-vote/). Some have even said they don't know when they'll return to normal operations and trading conditions, others have changed all orders to close-mode only, some are refusing to trade EUR,GBP and CHF pairings altogether.

Ozzie Matt (aeronthomas)
Jun 18 2016 at 10:52
1557帖子
mlawson71 posted:
Brokers are panicking ahead of Brexit though. (https://smnweekly.com/2016/06/17/brokers-seem-to-panic-ahead-of-uk-vote/). Some have even said they don't know when they'll return to normal operations and trading conditions, others have changed all orders to close-mode only, some are refusing to trade EUR,GBP and CHF pairings altogether.
yes I think they are afraid of another SNB event with huge swings causing negative balances for clients and bankruptcies etc. I still think Britain will remain as most undecided will just vote to stay and keep status quo and not risk change. we will see. I won't have any GBP trades over and any EUR trades open I will have hedged.

vontogr (togr)
Jun 18 2016 at 14:10
4862帖子
aeronthomas posted:
mlawson71 posted:
Brokers are panicking ahead of Brexit though. (https://smnweekly.com/2016/06/17/brokers-seem-to-panic-ahead-of-uk-vote/). Some have even said they don't know when they'll return to normal operations and trading conditions, others have changed all orders to close-mode only, some are refusing to trade EUR,GBP and CHF pairings altogether.
yes I think they are afraid of another SNB event with huge swings causing negative balances for clients and bankruptcies etc. I still think Britain will remain as most undecided will just vote to stay and keep status quo and not risk change. we will see. I won't have any GBP trades over and any EUR trades open I will have hedged.


Well it is better to avoid trading for upcoming week. I believe once we know the results it will get soon or later get back to normal

xgavinc
Jun 20 2016 at 09:42
235帖子
togr posted:
xgavinc posted:
togr posted:
It seems Brexit wont happen:)
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/


Still a close call. History has proven polls to be unreliable, anything can still happen as the number of people who have not taken part in the poll far exceed those who have, and some who want to keep their vote secret will instinctively choose the opposite side when taking part in a poll. I am however confident that a Bremain is more likely if voters actually understand the pro's vs con's and were adequately informed with facts and not propaganda.

It could. But all brokers is sending emails about Brexit. Not referendum. It is like they had already left EU.


As far as I can see from news reports, the term 'Brexit' has been coined as the de-facto term for the referendum as a whole, media reported 'Brexit' as referring to 'Decision to exit or remain'... 'Bremain' was only later used to clear up confusion in the media and not to steer readers into a direction and to clearly divide the supporters of each camp, however, most still use the word 'Brexit' to describe the referendum, it should not be confused as the article, report, etc. as favoring or believing the votes will call for an 'exit'.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
xgavinc
Jun 20 2016 at 10:01
235帖子
Consensus:
A leave would equate to a lot more volatility.

leave - USD/XXX down, GBP/XXX up, EUR/XXX down (but not as much movement).
remain - USD/XXX up, GBP/XXX down, EUR/XXX up (but not as much movement).

Pick your poison or stay out of these pairs.

For every loss there should be at least an equal and opposite profit.
vontogr (togr)
Jun 20 2016 at 12:23
4862帖子
xgavinc posted:
togr posted:
xgavinc posted:
togr posted:
It seems Brexit wont happen:)
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/


Still a close call. History has proven polls to be unreliable, anything can still happen as the number of people who have not taken part in the poll far exceed those who have, and some who want to keep their vote secret will instinctively choose the opposite side when taking part in a poll. I am however confident that a Bremain is more likely if voters actually understand the pro's vs con's and were adequately informed with facts and not propaganda.

It could. But all brokers is sending emails about Brexit. Not referendum. It is like they had already left EU.


As far as I can see from news reports, the term 'Brexit' has been coined as the de-facto term for the referendum as a whole, media reported 'Brexit' as referring to 'Decision to exit or remain'... 'Bremain' was only later used to clear up confusion in the media and not to steer readers into a direction and to clearly divide the supporters of each camp, however, most still use the word 'Brexit' to describe the referendum, it should not be confused as the article, report, etc. as favoring or believing the votes will call for an 'exit'.


yeah they use term Brexit to describe referendum about it

mlawson71
Jun 21 2016 at 09:08
1487帖子
Why am I not surprised that the only brokers who don't want to take any measures to protect their clients during the referendum are the ones regulated by CuSEC (https://smnweekly.com/2016/06/21/exness-easymarkets-go-trend-keep-margin-requirements-unchanged-brexit/)? And all with the promises that volatility during Brexit will give people the opportunity to make more money.

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