Alpari Demo Managed Account (由 PeterFM)
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Alpari Demo Managed Account讨论
Nov 05, 2009 at 10:28
Hi KK
The second 0.1 position was added at a pullback to a Support area and also suffered some drawdown. I closed it on a tight trail placed just below a Resistance area (which I was looking to provide Support) after price had broken above. So the 2nd 0.1 trade was by design.
In this newer method I'm simply looking to exploit the overshoot that happens at S/R areas and splitting my position into smaller lots and placing them above and below my designated levels. It has the advantage of keeping your risk the same for the trade while offering the chance to enter with a better average price overall.
If price picks up the 1st order and price reacts in the required direction, you then have spare lots that can be added later if the circumstances provide clear opportunities.
As with most things in FX, there are aspects on both the plus and minus side of any method and I should point out that I'm testing this strategy on demo primarily.
The second 0.1 position was added at a pullback to a Support area and also suffered some drawdown. I closed it on a tight trail placed just below a Resistance area (which I was looking to provide Support) after price had broken above. So the 2nd 0.1 trade was by design.
In this newer method I'm simply looking to exploit the overshoot that happens at S/R areas and splitting my position into smaller lots and placing them above and below my designated levels. It has the advantage of keeping your risk the same for the trade while offering the chance to enter with a better average price overall.
If price picks up the 1st order and price reacts in the required direction, you then have spare lots that can be added later if the circumstances provide clear opportunities.
As with most things in FX, there are aspects on both the plus and minus side of any method and I should point out that I'm testing this strategy on demo primarily.
All I need is Support and Resistance
Nov 05, 2009 at 11:28
uhm...peter..sorry to ask...i need to confirm my understanding with your latest method...
if i'm not misunderstood, if you see a buy opportunity (that is, price going toward a support in an overall uptrend), you then split your size to make 2 order. The first will be put above/on the support line and the second will be placed under the support to let you open a trade with better entry?am i correct?sorry for my english..
if i'm not misunderstood, if you see a buy opportunity (that is, price going toward a support in an overall uptrend), you then split your size to make 2 order. The first will be put above/on the support line and the second will be placed under the support to let you open a trade with better entry?am i correct?sorry for my english..
Nov 05, 2009 at 11:57
hoedha posted:Your English is fine.
uhm...peter..sorry to ask...i need to confirm my understanding with your latest method...
if i'm not misunderstood, if you see a buy opportunity (that is, price going toward a support in an overall uptrend), you then split your size to make 2 order. The first will be put above/on the support line and the second will be placed under the support to let you open a trade with better entry?am i correct?sorry for my english..
Yes you have it exactly right but remember to base your lots on the worst case scenario. By this I mean that you must first determine your number of lots as if you were only placing one trade. So, if you decided that price was likely to come down to test Support at 1.4600, for example, you might normally place a Buy Limit order at 1.4610 with a stoploss at 1.4560 (50 pips). Let's say that this allowed you to trade with 10 lots at 1% risk.
What you do is place 5 lots at 1.4610 and another 5 lots at 1.4590 (average price 1.4600). The idea has two things in its favour. Firstly if price picks up your 1st order and moves quickly into profit without breaking below at least you're in a trade with the option to add in if you wish at a later date. If it breaks through the Support area you will be with the traders who are sitting there with largish orders waiting to bet in at the best price (this is where Stop Hunting gets its bad name). Larger traders will target the Sell Stops of small traders who are trying to play breakouts at S/R. If price is going to move up from a S/R area with any sort of conviction then it seems sensible to have your orders placed somewhere near where the big boys might be.
If the Support level fails then you are risking slightly less than your full 1% anyway, which has to be a good thing 😀.
I hope that helps.
All I need is Support and Resistance
Nov 05, 2009 at 12:23
(已编辑 Nov 05, 2009 at 12:25)
Here's a classic example on the EURUSD. Price rose up to meet Resistance at 1.4835; 2 orders would be placed (1) 10-pips below and (2) 10-pips above.
In this case the highest order missed being activated by 1 pip but price was quickly rejected at the Resistance level and after a quick retest fell nearly 70 pips. You could take your profit there or add in on the retracement at 1.4754.
If you had a 50-pip stop, that would have been a decent return on a small trade. You see this sort of thing happening on every chart, it's just a question of deciding where your stops need to be and maybe using a fixed one for each pair. You'd need a wider one on GBPUSD, for example, compared to EURUSD.
Some trades will be losers simply because price may try a serious breakout and hit your stop but if it breaks down afterwards and you get some clear price action below a Resistance level then you have an opportunity to regain your losses. There will be times where price will go back up to re-test that Resistance again so there's another opportunity.
You have to be prepared to take some hits but I feel that if you have assessed your charts correctly, and have a clear idea on the overall trend you are trying to trade, this method is as simple and reliable as any. In this case you would have been going against the main trend as I see it (based on the Daily charts) but as a counter-trend trade it was full of potential if you set your targets without being greedy. In this case there were only another 12 pips or so on offer after 1.4754 so taking all your profit at that point was the sensible option as soon as you saw the first green candle.
The other option is to simply set a 1:1 profit target as you place your orders and be happy with that.
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In this case the highest order missed being activated by 1 pip but price was quickly rejected at the Resistance level and after a quick retest fell nearly 70 pips. You could take your profit there or add in on the retracement at 1.4754.
If you had a 50-pip stop, that would have been a decent return on a small trade. You see this sort of thing happening on every chart, it's just a question of deciding where your stops need to be and maybe using a fixed one for each pair. You'd need a wider one on GBPUSD, for example, compared to EURUSD.
Some trades will be losers simply because price may try a serious breakout and hit your stop but if it breaks down afterwards and you get some clear price action below a Resistance level then you have an opportunity to regain your losses. There will be times where price will go back up to re-test that Resistance again so there's another opportunity.
You have to be prepared to take some hits but I feel that if you have assessed your charts correctly, and have a clear idea on the overall trend you are trying to trade, this method is as simple and reliable as any. In this case you would have been going against the main trend as I see it (based on the Daily charts) but as a counter-trend trade it was full of potential if you set your targets without being greedy. In this case there were only another 12 pips or so on offer after 1.4754 so taking all your profit at that point was the sensible option as soon as you saw the first green candle.
The other option is to simply set a 1:1 profit target as you place your orders and be happy with that.
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target='_blank'><img src= /></a>
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All I need is Support and Resistance
Nov 05, 2009 at 12:53
(已编辑 Nov 05, 2009 at 12:54)
Here's a trade in the live account (EURUSD). This time I'm trading Long from the 1.4835 Support level - marked with the thick green line.
I've locked profit in as we are getting ready for NFP so don't want to take any chances. You can see the entry orders for this trade straddling the 1.4835 line.
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I've locked profit in as we are getting ready for NFP so don't want to take any chances. You can see the entry orders for this trade straddling the 1.4835 line.
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附件:
All I need is Support and Resistance
Nov 05, 2009 at 23:47
very well explained mr peter!
i get a clear picture of your method right now..for some weeks i've been trading S/R also and it gives me some good profits also..i've been reading BRV in FF and it gives me some good points on how to make an entry..one of those is waiting for the price to retrace to the S/R after breakout just like you said in your post..very well explained mr peter!
i'm trading daily on 7 pairs, that allows me to not think in a hurry about taking a trade and makes me trade less which means less mistakes also..similiar with you,i also trade with the trend, and i agree with you that taking any short trade on EURUSD right now will be counter-trend.
One problem i have with this method is to calculate the SL..i used to get no SL, because sometimes the trade hit my SL and then move to the expected direction..so i dont use any SL anymore but just put a believe that trend will continue its direction soon..this approach sometimes get me a big drawdown, some for days, before it then finally going to the right direction and make some profits..
what do you think mr peter?do you think we should use fixed SL, or do you think we can have no SL and just put a believe to the trend?
thanks before..
i get a clear picture of your method right now..for some weeks i've been trading S/R also and it gives me some good profits also..i've been reading BRV in FF and it gives me some good points on how to make an entry..one of those is waiting for the price to retrace to the S/R after breakout just like you said in your post..very well explained mr peter!
i'm trading daily on 7 pairs, that allows me to not think in a hurry about taking a trade and makes me trade less which means less mistakes also..similiar with you,i also trade with the trend, and i agree with you that taking any short trade on EURUSD right now will be counter-trend.
One problem i have with this method is to calculate the SL..i used to get no SL, because sometimes the trade hit my SL and then move to the expected direction..so i dont use any SL anymore but just put a believe that trend will continue its direction soon..this approach sometimes get me a big drawdown, some for days, before it then finally going to the right direction and make some profits..
what do you think mr peter?do you think we should use fixed SL, or do you think we can have no SL and just put a believe to the trend?
thanks before..
Nov 06, 2009 at 11:03
(已编辑 Nov 06, 2009 at 11:04)
First, please cut out the MR Peter stuff. A simple Peter will do fine.
It's hard for me to guide you on stops without seeing your charts and time frames. There are two mental and technical reasons why stops get hit.
On the mental size we have greed and fear. You start out setting stops too close so that you can pile on the largest position size you can but without any real consideration of where you should place the stops. This is as a result of many peoples' intro to trading, where you are shown 10-pip stops and 100-pip gains. All these promises of 100s of easy pips (ie MONEY), at no risk, take months of real-life trading to shake off. Once you have had the problem of being taken out and the trade taking off without you then this leads you to trade with no stops, or stops that are much larger than before but without the necessary reduction in your position size. Then when the trade really does go against you, panic sets in and you either keep moving your stops further away in the hope of a change of direction or your account gets wiped out. I can promise you that this happened to me on my first live account, so I'm speaking from experience here.
On the technical side it's a simple case of not having a clear understanding of where the key S/R levels are for the time frame you are trading. All my key levels are based on the Monthly and/or Weekly charts. I also have intermediate Daily levels that I use as guidance. Lastly I use a method that marks the Highest and Lowest CLOSES on the first four bars on the Hourly chart that I sometimes use for breakout trades, but that takes time to get a feel for and I'm still testing that on the demo account.
If you combine a solid way of determining the trend and a way of clearly setting realistic targets life becomes easier. My core method is to use the Daily and mark Significant Major Lows. As you can see in the 1st image, we have been in an Uptrend since the beginning of the year. Until the last Significant Low (@ 1.4700) is taken out I see no end to the core trend.
Short-Term trades I base on the Daily Close as seen in the 2nd image. I would be looking to trade off the dotted Yellow line at 1.4839 with a Stop set below the Magenta line at 1.4715. My initial Profit Target would be around the 1.500 area where the next main Resistance is to be found.
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target='_blank'><img src= /></a>
It's hard for me to guide you on stops without seeing your charts and time frames. There are two mental and technical reasons why stops get hit.
On the mental size we have greed and fear. You start out setting stops too close so that you can pile on the largest position size you can but without any real consideration of where you should place the stops. This is as a result of many peoples' intro to trading, where you are shown 10-pip stops and 100-pip gains. All these promises of 100s of easy pips (ie MONEY), at no risk, take months of real-life trading to shake off. Once you have had the problem of being taken out and the trade taking off without you then this leads you to trade with no stops, or stops that are much larger than before but without the necessary reduction in your position size. Then when the trade really does go against you, panic sets in and you either keep moving your stops further away in the hope of a change of direction or your account gets wiped out. I can promise you that this happened to me on my first live account, so I'm speaking from experience here.
On the technical side it's a simple case of not having a clear understanding of where the key S/R levels are for the time frame you are trading. All my key levels are based on the Monthly and/or Weekly charts. I also have intermediate Daily levels that I use as guidance. Lastly I use a method that marks the Highest and Lowest CLOSES on the first four bars on the Hourly chart that I sometimes use for breakout trades, but that takes time to get a feel for and I'm still testing that on the demo account.
If you combine a solid way of determining the trend and a way of clearly setting realistic targets life becomes easier. My core method is to use the Daily and mark Significant Major Lows. As you can see in the 1st image, we have been in an Uptrend since the beginning of the year. Until the last Significant Low (@ 1.4700) is taken out I see no end to the core trend.
Short-Term trades I base on the Daily Close as seen in the 2nd image. I would be looking to trade off the dotted Yellow line at 1.4839 with a Stop set below the Magenta line at 1.4715. My initial Profit Target would be around the 1.500 area where the next main Resistance is to be found.
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target='_blank'><img src= /></a>----------
<a href=
target='_blank'><img src= /></a>
附件:
All I need is Support and Resistance
Nov 06, 2009 at 14:27
Peter, not sure if you had received the message in your inbox to further discuss some questions I had. If you have either time this afternoon or let me know when works best for you.
Again thanks for the great information,
KK
Again thanks for the great information,
KK
Persistence with no other options
Nov 06, 2009 at 20:52
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https://join.mikogo.com/?sp=&sid=515716413
Please enter the following session information when required:
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Session Login: https://join.mikogo.com
All I need is Support and Resistance
Nov 09, 2009 at 12:09
Another add-in trade on AUDUSD.
The 0.9270 level is the lower barrier surrounding my main Resistance point @ 0.9317.
I've entered on the pull back to .9270 as I'm still bullish on this pair and am using the straddle entry method that is part of the current demo. I simply place Buy Limit orders 5 pips above Support and 5 pips below Support aiming to pick up a better average price if the market goes stop hunting below Support. If I'm dealing with Resistance then, of course, I would be placing Sell Limit orders.
The other two main trades are still live on this pair and all the trades on the USDCAD are also running.
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target='_blank'><img src= /></a>
The 0.9270 level is the lower barrier surrounding my main Resistance point @ 0.9317.
I've entered on the pull back to .9270 as I'm still bullish on this pair and am using the straddle entry method that is part of the current demo. I simply place Buy Limit orders 5 pips above Support and 5 pips below Support aiming to pick up a better average price if the market goes stop hunting below Support. If I'm dealing with Resistance then, of course, I would be placing Sell Limit orders.
The other two main trades are still live on this pair and all the trades on the USDCAD are also running.
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<a href=
target='_blank'><img src= /></a>
附件:
All I need is Support and Resistance
Nov 09, 2009 at 14:14
all your trades are very good calls peter..you believe in trend and it pays you with a lot of pips as i see you have 700+ pips running in your demo..very good...i think i found the best place to learn how to trace correctly.. :)
peter, do you have any thread that discuss your method in this site or in FF?
thanks..
one question, do you stick to one timeframe or do you often look to shorter timeframe?i see here that some of your trades were based on daily timeframe, but on the last one you based it on H1 TF...how do you manage multiple timeframe-trading like that?
peter, do you have any thread that discuss your method in this site or in FF?
thanks..
one question, do you stick to one timeframe or do you often look to shorter timeframe?i see here that some of your trades were based on daily timeframe, but on the last one you based it on H1 TF...how do you manage multiple timeframe-trading like that?
