FRWC - Fusion V - Alpari讨论

This stuff is a big waste of time...there are too many profitable methods on here to be looking or even posting about this..

I almost 400 post...I thought it was something good...but of course it's not... these results are laughable😂

HiRider has a RR of 20:1!!! That is just disaster waiting to happen. So, every 20 winning trades that HiRider has can be offset by 1 loss. That is not a good system. Sure it may be profitable during specific periods of time but, over the long haul, I wouldn't put one more dime into it. Also, Hirider will open multiple orders using the same strategy so all those little similar wins can easily be huge losses and crush an account. I have seen 10 trades open by HiRider all with the same strategy. If that strategy would have taken a full loss the account would be less more than 2,000 pips. Now plug in your position size and work out how much a 2,000 pip loss is. If that's acceptable to you for 100 pip gain, I don't know what else to say.

LMD is the only one that I'd be interested in working with more but, it's definitely not worth $1,000!

Also, if you are trying to get a refund and FRWC is giving you lip, understand this. Their 60 day guarantee includes this statement as per their original sales page:
"Trade ANY of the FRWC's Royal Trader robots on a DEMO account (they are FREE to open with any FX broker) or live account, as you wish, for 30 days."

That statement implies a MAXIMUM of 30 days to trade an account using any of the Royal Trader robots. NOT A MINIMUM! "Trade as you wish" means exactly that. AS YOU WISH. You could trade the EA for 2 days, 2 seconds, or not at all. There is no requirement to trade any of the EAs for any period of time. In fact, if they even hinted at a requirement to trade the EAs, that is unlawful. No one can legally force another person to trade any money, real or fictional. It's just plain, not legal.

If you have asked for a refund even once, and they have refused for any reason, you are well within your 60 days to obtain a refund and they are in breech of contract. Send a copy of the sales page to your Bank/LOC/etc and initiate a chargeback. The reason would be clerical & lack of refund.

Don't let people play games with you. They clearly stated the refund policy on their page.

" Now plug in your position size and work out how much a 2,000 pip loss is. If that's acceptable to you for 100 pip gain, I don't know what else to say."

I hear what your saying over all it's good ...but I don't agree with the statement above..

no matter what trading system you use manual or automatic, there is always the risk of loss... and that is just that..

it's the cost of doing business...lol

No, I completely agree with him. Although Hi Rider looks good, it's simply because of the risk/reward ratio. Sooner of later it will get it wrong and you will get hit for 10 losses.

So, let's look at the maths. Let's say you're prepared to risk 1% on each individual trade. That means you'd suffer a 10% loss should Hi Rider get it wrong, which eventually it will do. There is no doubt in my mind that sooner or later EUR/USD will go in a direction and not reverse the position until after the full stop loss gets hit.

So, risking 1% on each trade how much does each win return?

At 20:1 I make it 0.05%. Over the ten trades that's 0.5% for the full suite of strategies, which to me actually appear to just be ten trades raised within a few seconds of each other rather than any kind of strategy.

Of course there is always the risk of a loss but when that loss will take another 20 winning trades to make back the one loss it becomes questionable as to the robot's usefullness. Imagine getting two or even three set of losses in a row? If you think it's impossible then you haven't been trading long enough. A black swan event could blow your equity apart in a matter of days as the robot keeps getting in on the wrong side of a long term trend. Imagine sitting staring at a 10% and then a 20% loss knowing that the next trade could end up the same way and you would then need well over 60 winning trades in a row to even get back to where you were. Eventually you turn off the robot scared to lose any more money and wondering how on earth you will ever make it back. This is the big problem of scalping robots that don't pay enough attention to stop losses. It's unfortunate that the human brain is wired to want to win all the time because that it exactly what these developers prey on.

Earl posted:
" Now plug in your position size and work out how much a 2,000 pip loss is. If that's acceptable to you for 100 pip gain, I don't know what else to say."

I hear what your saying over all it's good ...but I don't agree with the statement above..

no matter what trading system you use manual or automatic, there is always the risk of loss... and that is just that..

it's the cost of doing business...lol

Risk of loss, exactly! That's how I evaluate systems. Risk first , then profit potential. A lot of people make the mistake of looking at profit potential first, and giving risk an after thought. As far as not agreeing, there's really nothing to agree/disagree about. The fact is that HiRider places Stop Losses (actual risk) and Take Profits (Potential Profit). These numbers break down into a Risk to Reward ratio which is either acceptable or not. Below are the S/L & T/P of all HiRider Strategies:

S1: S/L= 100 ; T/P= 7 RR= 14.3 : 1
S2: S/L= 210 ; T/P= 12 RR= 17.5 : 1
S3: S/L= 210 ; T/P= 12 RR= 17.5 : 1
S4: S/L= 210 ; T/P= 12 RR= 17.5 : 1
S5: S/L= 210 ; T/P= 10 RR= 21 : 1


Now, the fact that HiRider can open 10 separate positions using the same strategy at the very close time intervals (AKA the same entry signal opening multiple orders instead of one) magnifies profit potential AND risk. So if the maximum positions (10) were opened using the same strategy with a stop loss at 210 pips the total risk is 2,100 pips. Where's the disagreement?

These are the numbers of HiRider unless the user modifies them via Fusion. I would be perfectly fine risking 2,100 pips if profit potential was 4,200 pips or better however that is not the case with HiRider. The profit potential is at best 120 pips over 10 trades. 2,100 pip risk for 120 pip potential is not the cost of doing business, it's a guaranteed business killer. Would you put $21,000 at risk for a potential profit of $1,200? I sure wouldn't... and I definitely wouldn't do it consistently.

20 risk to 1 profit is not acceptable to me. I prefer 1:2 or better, and 1:1 minimum. In some cases I might accept an inverted RR if the strategy performs exceptionally well in specific market conditions, and is only traded during those conditions.

Yes, risk of loss is part of the game. But brushing it aside and not comparing it to profit potential is very silly. Would you bet on a series of 100 coin tosses where you risked $20 to make $10 per toss? How about if you risked $10 to make $20? One is a statistically guaranteed loss, while the other is a statistically guaranteed win. Both involve risk but the risk is not worth the potential in the first series, while the risk is definitely worth the potential for the second series.

Surely, you can't believe that one system with more risk and less profit potential, is equal to another system with less risk and more profit potential....

The basic utility of a system can be measured using Risk vs Profit Potential in relation to the probability of success (win%).

I'm not talking about this ea specifically...because it sucks...

in general you control risk with good money management...

but even with good management things can go against you, even when all the moons align.

how many times have you watched a good trade go bad???? and had to take a much smaller profit than you targeted??

forex is chaos... you can calculate the RR all you want it's still only speculation

Money Management is not the same as Risk Management.

Risk management is simply managing risk. (e.g. Identifying your maximum risk) So, basically position sizing with relation to the maximum acceptable movement of price in the direction that you don't want it to go. Also, any trading time restrictions, or currency pair restrictions due to high spread, negative roll, volatility, liquidity, etc.

Ex1: If I want to risk 1% of a $100k account and my stop is placed at 100 pips on a pair with a pip cost of $10 I could risk 1 standard lot, 10 minis, or a volume of $100k.

Ex2: If my stop was at 50 pips and pip cost was $10 for the pair then I could risk 2 standard lots, 20 minis, or a volume of $200k

For both examples the risk is $1,000 or 1% of the $100k account. Depending on RR the profit potential would vary.

Money Management brings into play: position scaling, max % of equity to be used, Risk vs Reward, and other methods such as suspending trading during a heavy losing streak.

Risk management can exist without money management, and money management can exist without risk management. Although they may seem similar, they are definitely not the same thing.

Yes, even with good money management things can go against you... This is the reason to have good RISK management.

I've watched many trades go bad. The tricky part is letting the bad trades go bad (or preserving profits), and letting the good trades reach their maximum potential as set by your system. (AKA cutting losses, and letting profits run)

Forex is chaotic, yes. But, it is not entirely chaos. It appears more chaotic as you look at smaller market cycles and then even more chaotic when looking at sheer volatility(e.g. scalping from a 1 minute chart vs. position trading vs. holding carry trades)

Knowing Risk in Relation to reward and analyzing it relative to a systems average win % will work wonders. Yes, it is speculation. For some, it's gambling. The only tools you can really bring to the table is your RR & MM strategies and the fortitude to abide by them.

A person could just as easily run around buying and selling houses without regard for their exposure in terms of risk. That can work when the markets go up, but ask the many people who lost small fortunes when the real estate bubble burst.... Then ask the people who are still investing in real estate. The difference is calculated decision making (AKA investing) vs overexcited buying and selling (AKA gambling).

Everything is not so simple, and yet, everything is so simple... Kind of strange...

I never said Money Management was the same as risk management...

I said you can control risk with good money management...

OK tell me what my RR is?? In my system I don't use a SL or a TP

how do you calculate the RR on that???

not being a prick...

you can calculate the RR based on how you set up your trade...but does anyone truly put in an SL for it to get hit... it's like a worse case scenario... so I think if you calculate the RR on most system it would be scarey and you probably would never enter a trade...

set your tp to 10 and your sl to 10..... 1 to 1 nice... but what do you think is going to happen...LOL

I see a lot of bitchin' and moanin' here :-(

To Steve's point above we are wired for success and not failure so I can understand with some of the initial published account results and people's one or two demo / live account results why that might be.

But - In poker, you play the hand your dealt or you fold - and this watershed will occur soon
(Look on the bright side, at least here with a fold strategy you have the chance of a refund if you followed FRWC guidelines :-)

For those still in after the refund period expires, forget about the profitability, that will take care of itself when we figure out either a pattern in the losing trades (common currency loss, time of day loss, breach of max loss value for all winning trades) or a way to mitigate them i.e. Trade Manager EA's - I won't say the answer is staring us in the face, but it is out there.

I've seen the posts here, and there are smart FOREX traders in this forum, if there was as much energy spent researching the above or similar risk mitigation options to close down that big 1:15 or 1:20 losing trade instead of whining about not having received a money printing press for your $1000 we all might have been able to make some money by now - my challenge to all of you with half a brain, roll up your sleeves and help figure this out and we'll all be better off !!! :-)


On the subject of what we bought into here, there is a lot of people her calling it junk, your entitled to your opinion, their like @$$holes - everyone has one, and your entitled to.

Let me get naked and expose mine -

I bought into an experiment with a lot of promise and no guarantees. I rolled the dice with high expectations but under no illusion this was my retirement plan.

What actually happened?

FRWC made available all top EA's "as is" in their RAW competition format, they also took 5 very different EA's written by 5 very different programmers from all over the world - one even used a code generator because they couldn't write the EA themself.

The RAW EA's were likely optimized for max risk vs reward - why wouldn't you go for it flat out in what was basically a 100m sprint where winner takes all !

These EA's were made available with pretty poor documentation and instruction (Mistake on FWRC's part, highlighted by our results straight out the box based on their minimal explanation & guidance).

They also took 5 very different robots and either merged or took their principle logic and re-wrote and tested (somewhat in the timeframe) one new hybrid robot called Fusion V in a very short period of time. I might not be a FOREX expert but I've been in IT since 1988, and for anybody who has written and developed software / EA's, you know this in no mean feet in the time they had, and this introduces the potential to have bugs, any one of which could bust an account in this environment as we have seen.

They then released all of this to the public for a $1000 fee with slick marketing.

Had the results been good post world cup in the demo / live environment, none of us would be moaning, but that's not the way it went down, and I suspect FRWC were not prepared or staffed properly for this. They have tried to address the issues but are likely only just getting to grips with what really needs to be done both from a Customer Relations perspective and from a development & release perspective - we have seen a few emails on guidance & some updates and improvements to some of the robots which would indicate this but they still have a long way to go.

There are now some questions over credibility, with under performance, accusations of manually closed trades and bad PR around refunds.

Looking to the future, those that can't take the $1000 loss should consider seeking a refund so start collecting your data for FRWC per the money back offer & MadMatz guidance above if need be.

Those that can take the temporary loss and ride it out till the Robots are refined enough to make money, need to consider their role during this period, do you sit back and wait, or if you have knowledge in any aspect of solving the issue of effective loss mitigation need to start posting and collaborating - this is what separates us from the animal's boys and girls our ability to think, work together learn and solve complex problems.

Remember - most of the top robots here know when to place trades and make money, it's the potentially for busting per Steve above that is killing them IMO that's the focus that's needed, we can worry about enhancing profitability later.

My cup is half full and aas you may be able to tell, I do have faith in FRWC I believe they are honest to their intentions, it's just going to take some time - disappointing per their marketing material / hype, but ask yourself this, can you manually trade the gross profit numbers better yourself ? and if not, what are you going to do about it ?

K

PS - To FRWC if you read this forum - great concept and marketing, lots of potential, now get your sh*# together, there are a lot of people expecting you to deliver here per your commitments, or come good on your money back guarantee - your future success & reputation depends on it !

No worries, you're not being a prick. It's always good to think about things, and reevaluate them from time to time.

You said, "in general you control risk with good money management..." I disagree.

With no S/L your true risk is Margin call OR potentially infinite. Infinite loss is not realistic though, so margin call it is.

If I were trading with no S/L I would have to calculate a typical Risk by the largest movement in price that occurred in the pair being traded during a 24 hour period, multiplied by position size. That would take into account a large movement and loss of connectivity, almost worst case scenario. For profit target I would use average profit. The relationship would be RR

The other way would be take max historical loss of your system (single trade as % of balance) and compare it to average win as % of balance. This is more complicated then I would care to do, and it's not an accurate measure of true risk. But it's better than nothing.

Those would be the methods if you truly don't have S/L or T/P. However, I'm willing to bet, that even if you don't use hard S/L or T/P, you still have numbers in your head were you will take a loss, or take a profit. Maybe their not exact numbers but, I'm sure you would exit a trade somewhere before a 50% loss of an account. For profit, you probably have a range. For example between 1% and 2% profit and you exit the market with extra money.

So, the best answer to your question is the relationship between your maximum acceptable loss as a % of equity, and your profit goals as a % of equity, would be the RR that I would use. Of course the risk is increased since you, or your broker could experience technical difficulties. That will have less of an impact though as profit & risk targets increase. A risk of 300 pips could typically withstand a technical mishap longer than a risk of 30 pips.

I personally do put in stop losses in with the intention that they can be hit. For one of my systems they are typically 100 pips + and represent 1 to 2% of my balance. They are hit occasionally, other times I will exit at a much smaller loss due to false signal, stagnant market, or just plain luck. But every time I place a trade, I am prepared to be stopped out at my max.

With a S/L at 10 and T/P at 10, you'd have to be pretty accurate with your entries and have a system that was consistently profitable 60% or more of the time for me to ever trade it.

But no, 1:1 for me is more like 100 pip S/L and 100 pip T/P at the least. There is room for market fluctuation in most pairs at those levels. The results will be much different than the 10 and 10. The 10 pips method would be playing on volatility where the 100 pips method is playing positions with much less noise (volatility).

So what do you think will happen with a S/L at 300 pips and a T/P at 300 pips? The market moves a lot slower from that perspective but, there is plenty of money to be made there. Now change those RRs to 1:2 or better and we're talking!

"my challenge to all of you with half a brain, roll up your sleeves and help figure this out and we'll all be better off !!! :-)"

I don't take challenges where the potential loss outweigh the benefits. Good luck to all who do 😉


"those that can't take the $1000 loss should consider seeking a refund"

I would hope that everyone trading could take a $1,000 loss (eventually at least). After all the more you lose the more you win, if you're doing things right.

The point is not taking a $1,000 loss. The point is, are the FRWC EAs worth $1,000. I personally don't feel that they are, and I don't care to spend anymore time tinkering with them. I see how they work now, and it's definitely not my style. Other people may love them.

Whatever people decide... make sure you know when to cut your losses, it's one of the hardest parts of trading.

madmatz.. now with the last post I totally agree...

it's not for the consumer to sit and figure out how these EA's work...I think that should come with the $1000 price tag.

These guys aren't selling a group of winning EA's they are selling HYPE!!!!

that's why this is such a let down...when the wheels fall off...LOL

Earl

I understand your position, and hence my PS to FRWC at the end (Yes they do read the forums ;-) )

However I'm not going to wait or rely on FRWC coming up with what is overdue - some of these EA's while not where they need to be are, are pretty close, there are 3 camps here IMO, those who cash out, those who hang on to see what happens, and those who work out the bugs or find work arounds to make it work for themselves

Some of the demo's I have are still positive, just nothing like FRWC return examples / hype - I personally never hoped for 300%, I'm happy with 15% a month myself and if the loss side of the house can be reduced, for a robot - they will be good enough to recoup significantly more than the initial investment relatively quickly.

I don't hold anybody's decision against them and respect madmatz point, we all have different things to do with our time / money.

Personally when the wheels come off, I pick myself up dust myself off, put the wheels back on as best I can and role on down the road - others react differently, that's their call.

Also for those with interest, I found this post from Jeff over on forexmachines dot com

Use it for what it's worth but there are some interesting setting variations here to be tested as well as some alternate trading strategy here i.e. One Robot does not always fit all so maybe you just have SV or the SV portion of fusion turned on on your account when things are going sideways - again just things to consider that I don't hear many people discussing / testing - I'm going to set something up to play around some of this on the weekend - if it looks interesting I'll post findings.

---------.
have reviewed the results from several fusion accounts, and they all say the same thing.

The Hirider bot is making all the money in the account. In one account I looked at, that was making money, it had made 80% of the profit.

Both LMD and Super Volcano lose a lot of trades due to how they work.

LMD is a swing trade bot so if you dont get large moves in your favor it won’t make money!

If you look at LMD’s profit chart from the contest you notice that it only made money in 2 large runups in the account, the rest of the time it was losing money.

LMD is more of a long term bot and super Volcano is unstable in hard trending markets because of how it trades it is only good in sideways and slow trending markets.

If you look at how GBP/JPY trades, every time it tanks or rockets up, which is multiple times per year, Super Volcano will probably destroy your account at those times.

You NEED to be able to think for yourself and figure these things out.

The people at FRWC cant do everything for you.

For those of you that put fusion on live accounts right away, if you had waited and used you brain to understand how the bots work first, you wouldn’t be down on your account. I have been working with them for 2 weeks now and I haven’t put any on a live account yet.

lorak,

You can learn a lot from tinkering, hopefully you learn some good stuff.

I respected the FRWC's original concept however, a few things rubbed me the wrong way. The first and biggest, was the first fusion account that they had posted for a few days. Remember, the live account that was controlled by FRWC and trading .02 fixed lots on FXCM MT4? Well, when that one mysteriously disappeared with absolutely no explanation, I thought that was very counter to their mantra of transparency, and a new revolution in the way of selling/marketing EAs. (e.g. no hype, and full disclosure)

So where did the original fusion account go? Well it tanked and FRWC stopped trading it, removed it from their website, and replaced it with the Live account from the FAP turbo guy, and a demo account. That also struck me as odd... Why is the FRWC selling Fusion, yet only trading it in a demo account? I mean a $1,000 account is really nothing, especially for them (1 sale of Royal Trader). Not to mention it shows a lack of confidence in your product.

I mean, if you went to buy a child car seat from the "Kids Safe-T Store" and you asked;
"Do you use this car seat for your children?"

And, the salesman replied; "No, I don't. But you know what... I let my 5 year old daughter use it to play with her favorite doll. Look there she is now using that car seat! It works GREAT!"

So how about it... Would you buy the car seat, and trust it with the safety of your kids?

It kind of felt like that when I saw that all go down.


The other huge red flag was Fusion itself being used to hype the sale of the contest EAs, boasting 354.37% NET profit in 19 days FLAT. This was used to generate mass hype, however Fusion was only disclosed after it was profitable. MARKETING TRICK. Why do I say that? Because they could have had 10 or more combinations all running real dollars. Guess which one becomes Fusion... the one that profited the most. And, worst case if none of them would have profited, Fusion would not have existed for the launch of this sale.

Now, it's obvious that the trading was extremely risky, and that those results would not continue. There was potential there though, which is why I chose to investigate these EAs further.

And last, just the usually marketing tactics. Watered down of course but, still there.

Of course, my biggest reason for passing on these FRWC EAs is not simply these reasons, though they all reinforced my decision. My biggest reason is, that I don't like the methods used by most of the EAs, and I don't feel that there is $1,000 worth of value there. LMD is the only one I have any interest in, and only because of the entry method the EA uses. I think it needs some work still.

Nothings, to say that FRWC couldn't find some good EAs in the future but, it's just not there now, in my opinion.

By the way if anyone is interested in that original Fusion Account running .02 fixed lots by FRWC, I have it tracked here:

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/madmatz/official-frwc-fusion-v/19484/EdWjW1aiGditFpv1T2EF

Honestly if you backtest enough with any EA over a few months period you can find decent setting, that will work with the current market conditions...

ta da I give you 5 ea's from the FRWC

things change, they tank

will these ea's work ??? maybe with a lot more R&D

hey I'm still using forex auto pilot.... 2 years later I think I just got the hang of it.

Bitching and whining? Being honest about this crap EA
and these Fusions clowns is bitching? Hey, calling it like
it is has nothing to do with whining or bitching. Now,
if someone still insists on defending this crap, then I
have to seriously question their ethics, integrity, and
even their intelligence. There is nothing to defend
here regarding Fusion and their clowns peddling
this thing. Now, do we have the permission to
trash you daily in here relentlessly if these blowhards
do not give a refund? Fusion sucks, Plimus sucks, and
these clowns suck. Now, is this whining? Certainly
more real and useful than coming in here and still
talking utter nonsense as if Fusion has any merit.
Roll up the sleeves? Are you freaking joking me?
Again, there is no merit here and there is nothing
to tweak. Nothing to configure and nothing left
to figure out. Every smart trader, who have either
experience in trading or programming EAs, clearly
saw that this sucks from week one. How long do
you have to stare at it and hope and hope and
hope to see that it indeed sucks. And it sucks
royally. I am just trying to make sure that nobody
else gets sucked into this when these clowns
of course conveniently open the doors for sales
for "limited" time. More truly insulting metaphors.
And more nonsense and pretense. Wrong again.
When something fails, you have the obligation
to tell people that it sucks and steer them away
from it. Not dust yourself off and say, "oh well...
that didn't work out... next". There is something
very crooked going on here with Fusion and these
clowns... and the proper and respectable thing to
do is scream that it sucks. OK?

For refund, now they say we need to demo for 30 days not 30 days from purchase date. They seem to be changing words. Do you think they have intention to refund at all?

no support accounts dissapearing they do need to refund or fix why wait 30 days trading -I dont mind doing this but fusion has not traded for 3 days now so how is that going to make up the 30 days can anyone explain what is happening