Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE讨论

I wouldn't be to hasty with your assumptions that Dustin has turned off the updating on the account. One of
my two accounts hasn't been updated for the past two days and my other account showed a massive drop ,down
to zero, in both the balance and the equity for no apparent reason.
I suspect the problem lies with Myfxbook as I have done nothing to cause this. Such a shame as it has spoilt the
the almost perfect growth curve.

gl/gt

   kneepad posted:
   
I wouldn't be to hasty with your assumptions that Dustin has turned off the updating on the account. One of
my two accounts hasn't been updated for the past two days and my other account showed a massive drop ,down
to zero, in both the balance and the equity for no apparent reason.
I suspect the problem lies with Myfxbook as I have done nothing to cause this. Such a shame as it has spoilt the
the almost perfect growth curve.

gl/gt

I concur with what kneepad has just stated, I had a great growth curve and then on Dec 12 curve to 0!!! WTF??? What happened myfxbook? A real blemish on the performance here, may be time to seek other analysis alternatives?

To everyone else, I am experiencing significant DD as well, currently at around $1900 on a $12.5K account. I guess this is to be expected at this time of year, just hoping for a pullback in the next 2-3 days so I can close flat and have a break, to return to trade mid-Jan 2012.

The EA has done well in previous times of DD, so I remain positive here (besides the fact that I do not have any capital at risk, just a good deal of the profit the EA has made thus far).

Paul, I settled tonight with 8.5% DD.

If it is of any consolation, EURUSD appears to be extremely oversold on several timeframes and there are some bullish divergences creeping in. Is flirting with January lows and possibly duly due for a pullback. Hopefully anytime soon. My current EA's TP target is 'only' 1.3137 which is well before even the first of the fibonacci retracements so I think that, short of Merkel invading Poland :-) we should have a good week end. :-)

I hate to continue seeming negative....but, better to be prepared. First.....never get hopeful. That is an emotion and will ruin your decision making skills.

now that's out of the way......There are 3 major support levels that we have a likelihood of bouncing off of for the EURUSD. 1.2869, 1.2639, and 1.2442. You could expect some serious resistance, BUT we are hitting the last half of December. Volume will shrink and that means potentially bigger market moves. This also means that S&R levels will be more easily disrespected. To see what kind of support we have to look forward to....jump on a daily and zoom back to middle of 2010. We have plenty of downside open to us. The stats for the US from Nov showed signs of improvement. Further, everyone knows that the stats will look even better during December due to increased sales from the holidays.

What I am saying is....the market could bounce and run up quite a ways before resuming a downtrend(mostly due to profit taking as the big players pull out of the market at the end of the year), but do not be surprised if the market drops another 200-400 pips before it decides to bounce. Keep your lot sizes small! and be prepared for lots of crazy movement in the upcoming weeks.

Strap in and throw your hands in the air!😁

tradingshed...thanks for the comforting remarks and technical analysis/diligence...greatly appreciated.

A couple of observations - I have a couple of trades still open from Nov 25 & 30 respectively for EUR/GBP - they seem to be hanging on for dear life. All other open trades (approx. 20 or so are from Dec 6 onwards). 50% of my DD is in EUR/USD so hoping the bullish divergences blow up! EUR/GBP is 10% of DD, GBP/USD is 10%, EUR/JPY is 20% and USD/CAD is 10%.

I am interested to see how the EA performs here in times of stress. I'm presuming you are using the MT4 EA, as I cannot see TP targets via the Tradency platform?!

An update from my account.... In a little under six weeks I have achieved my ROI of $1997, so everything from now on (providing there is no blow out) is profit. I am happy with this EA and the amount of $$$ I paid for it.

On another note.... sometime early in the new year I will be moving Tom's EA from my current broker Alpari UK to a different one. The reason is Alpari UK only allows 2 full lots of max of open positions on Micro accounts and since I plan on increasing my account size in the new year, that is not going to be sufficient.

I just happened to be floating around checking out some news, etc. Found an article that should set everyone on edge a bit. 😁

Seriously though, you should probably have a look just to brace yourself for what is likely to happen. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2011/12/15/Dollar_Extends_its_Longest_Rally_in_a_Month_as_Risk_Falls_Yet_Again.html

Just prior to fughe last couple of comments, and after some viewing of historical lows over the last 3 years, I've reduced risk on the two majors to one, and .01 on the three other pairs I am trading. I think this market could go either way at present, but I am erring on the side of caution, protecting my capital and letting current trades ride the waves until the New Year.

I'm strapped in, let the ride begin!

Phew....
Interesting stuff overnight - now have 43 trades open - its really piling in to try and recover the losing trades.
I can't imagine this ever being 'flat' - its not happened in 3 months so not sure why other people's account go 'flat'??
Open Trade DD still -20%
I think the lowest Open Trade DD I can remember seeing was about -5% and that was maybe a week or two after it started.
I still have one October trade open.

Well....just for the sake of keeping things interesting..... I am long half a lot on the EURCHF @ 1.23582. target at 1.2500, stop sitting below the 61.8 retrace at 1.2350. Now...let's see what happens. 😂

   kneepad posted:
   
I wouldn't be to hasty with your assumptions that Dustin has turned off the updating on the account. One of
my two accounts hasn't been updated for the past two days and my other account showed a massive drop ,down
to zero, in both the balance and the equity for no apparent reason.
I suspect the problem lies with Myfxbook as I have done nothing to cause this. Such a shame as it has spoilt the
the almost perfect growth curve.

gl/gt

my account faced with the same problem with 20% drawdown on the chart, but not on the trading history. this was from Myfxbook. I wrote email to Myfxbook, they corrected this error for my account adready yesterday.

   paulrozza posted:
   

   kneepad posted:
   
I wouldn't be to hasty with your assumptions that Dustin has turned off the updating on the account. One of
my two accounts hasn't been updated for the past two days and my other account showed a massive drop ,down
to zero, in both the balance and the equity for no apparent reason.
I suspect the problem lies with Myfxbook as I have done nothing to cause this. Such a shame as it has spoilt the
the almost perfect growth curve.

gl/gt

I concur with what kneepad has just stated, I had a great growth curve and then on Dec 12 curve to 0!!! WTF??? What happened myfxbook? A real blemish on the performance here, may be time to seek other analysis alternatives?

To everyone else, I am experiencing significant DD as well, currently at around $1900 on a $12.5K account. I guess this is to be expected at this time of year, just hoping for a pullback in the next 2-3 days so I can close flat and have a break, to return to trade mid-Jan 2012.

The EA has done well in previous times of DD, so I remain positive here (besides the fact that I do not have any capital at risk, just a good deal of the profit the EA has made thus far).

checking your trade record with history. not see the chart only. there are technical errors. Myfxbook has noticed this issue.

   paulrozza posted:
   Just prior to fughe last couple of comments, and after some viewing of historical lows over the last 3 years, I've reduced risk on the two majors to one, and .01 on the three other pairs I am trading. I think this market could go either way at present, but I am erring on the side of caution, protecting my capital and letting current trades ride the waves until the New Year.

I'm strapped in, let the ride begin!

it is too late for your open trades?
the new setting with 0.01 only effective for next new trades.

good luck!

try to think how to manage your open trades at this moment is most important.

Well, the long didn't work out, but the reverse fixed the loss and gave me a nice equity bump up. Another good day! Always have a plan for both directions.😁

   craneliu posted:
   

   kneepad posted:
   
I wouldn't be to hasty with your assumptions that Dustin has turned off the updating on the account. One of
my two accounts hasn't been updated for the past two days and my other account showed a massive drop ,down
to zero, in both the balance and the equity for no apparent reason.
I suspect the problem lies with Myfxbook as I have done nothing to cause this. Such a shame as it has spoilt the
the almost perfect growth curve.

gl/gt

my account faced with the same problem with 20% drawdown on the chart, but not on the trading history. this was from Myfxbook. I wrote email to Myfxbook, they corrected this error for my account adready yesterday.

I used the 'Report a Bug' at the bootom right of the page.
My accounts were fixed within a coupkle of hours. Here is the reply I got from them.

'I apologize for the inconvenience - one of our processing servers failed which caused the error. I've just fixed the data for the first account, however the second cannot update as the login seems to be incorrect - please update it and the data will be reprocessed.'

All I had to do then was reset the investor password in the settings and make sure it was the same as I had in MT4.

Great service.

Hi all,
In this DD times, and as I have some time on my hands :-) I thought I would share some charts with you. When DD gets a bit much, I normally look at the longer term picture and decide where I feel the DD will move from here on. I feel that Tom's EA should be left alone to deal with DD and I should not normally interfere by closing trades manually.

I am posting this only to share my point of view, hopefully giving some ideas to the ones of you that do not trade daily. I am not in any way suggesting you should follow my point of view or I am not giving advice to anyone. Purely a view on why I would not be closing any trades manually on this occasion.

In my case, EURUSD is the main culprit of the DD, so I will look at that chart.

WEEKLY:
We are at a cycle low on stochastic, together with being in wave 5 (NOT ELLIOTT) of the move down. Wave 5 has a big chance to be the final wave on the move and to give way to a retracement. The best place for that would be probably where we are now as we are sitting on a pretty big support level from January 2011.



DAILY:
For the above scenario to playout, we need the cooperation of the daily chart. On this chart, we are also on a cycle low (not always daily and weekly match) and we have stalled at the green support line (for now!). If indeed this turns out to be a medium term low, I am going to jump the gun and draw a fibonacci retracement on the last move, with the first level of retracement around 1.3445 (38.2%). If we get the retrace, I do not think it will go all the way to 50% as we are in a very strong downtrend. I think it will stop at the 38.2% or at the 50MA, both levels above my TP level of 1.3137.



HOURLY:
By drilling down to the hourly, note the strong intraday divergence today between price and momentum (MACD) and positive momentum. Should prices hold well today, the daily chart will print a bullish candlestick.



Also to note is that the majot stock indexes are struggling to move lower themselves and break those support levels.

Let's hope now that there will be no German invasion..... :-)

we are using a simple system with moving average and rsi, so far good profit

Forgot the last bit.....

This gives me the confidence that Tom's will recover from the DD, (mine is not a major one, still below 10%) even though fughe is right when he says that during these light volume holiday times technical analysis is less reliable than it normally would.

Nicely laid out tradingshed! BTW, if anyone cares, I agree with tradingshed's analysis. Today was a big fight. Sideways, up, down, up, down a little, up some more, way back down again, up a little, down a little....and now sideways....BUT...it looks as though we may end slightly higher on the close which lends some support to further upside. I wouldn't expect much beyond about 1.3250, but you never know! 😀

Keep you trade size small so if you need to try and recover, you have plenty of equity to do so. Make sure you have a trade plan for BOTH directions!