Tom'sEa WPFX LIVE讨论

I see that the EURJPY has now recovered in Tom's account. That one has been quite a ride...

Way back at the start when we all watched that 3 and a half hour webinar, presumably we made notes. I certainly did. I've got this, from somewhere between 2:35 and 2:43 :

What happens if the authentication server goes down ? They have a way to mass authenticate everybody. Never happened yet but there is a plan. The way it’s set up now it’s not a big issue for a number of reasons.

Seems that this exact scenario has just happened, why can't we all just get mass authenticated ?

Gary

So far my tradency account with real money has been performing very normally. I have to command Dustin took his responsiblity to keep all subscribers informed about this unfortunate event. I hope nobody will lose any money over this.
One of important question has kept me sleepless is how to deal with TomEA when margin drop to dangerous level, go flat? deactive ea, cut risk level, remove pairs has no open positions? I hope Dustin or Ivan or Tom can give us some guidlines even though this may be rare. but this question should not be ignored since Tome Ea basically is based on martingale principle.
ss

   drsong123 posted:
  
One of important question has kept me sleepless is how to deal with TomEA when margin drop to dangerous level, go flat? deactive ea, cut risk level, remove pairs has no open positions? I hope Dustin or Ivan or Tom can give us some guidlines even though this may be rare. but this question should not be ignored since Tome Ea basically is based on martingale principle.
ss

I can help you on that. Start by removing anything that is already out of it's positions so there won't be any new positions from other EAs or pairs. If you are still left with a couple of pairs and the margin is dangerously close, then it depends on what your leverage is. if the leverage is 50:1, then you can just close out the worst pip losing position(s) as they will have the smallest impact on the recovery, and it will generally free up a lot of margin. If you have a high leverage (400:1 or higher), then this option may help some, but not nearly as much as with the lower leverage accounts. Barring that, you can opt to close out several of the losing positions in hopes that it pulls the TP down enough to catch a reversal and recover some loss. But, to honestly make the system work the way it is supposed to, you need to just put more money in the account and try not to mess with any open orders and hope to catch the reversal. It is at this time when you will be wishing you had a way to start the trades with a risk of 0.1% instead of 1%. 😀

Thanks Fughe. You are right about to close worst positions has most impact on margin reserve. I wish FXDD will implement an alert to warn their clients about imminent margin call when free margin drop below certain level. I know some forex brokers have intentionaly spiked spread against their clients to wipe their account.
ss

   drsong123 posted:
   So far my tradency account with real money has been performing very normally. I have to command Dustin took his responsiblity to keep all subscribers informed about this unfortunate event. I hope nobody will lose any money over this.
One of important question has kept me sleepless is how to deal with TomEA when margin drop to dangerous level, go flat? deactive ea, cut risk level, remove pairs has no open positions? I hope Dustin or Ivan or Tom can give us some guidlines even though this may be rare. but this question should not be ignored since Tome Ea basically is based on martingale principle.
ss

I've experienced the 600 pip stop loss with the recent JPY swings. As I turned the EA off over Xmas on all pairs but the two majors, I had a couple of trades go to the max and automatically stop out. Bad result on the loss, but a good result to see that it went no further, so the automatic SL safeguard does work from experience.

I have also closed trades out manually when I was at an uncomfortable level - but I have to concur with what fughe said that the best way to treat this EA is to leave it to do it's thing. If you can keep an eye on it, and add additional funds when the level of DD gets too high, you should be ok.

Even after the wild swings, and chopping and changing pairs, I am still up 27% since I started the EA at the end of November - a great result. And I for one will be sticking with the EA and Dustin for the long term.

For those following my account.... I have closed out all positions and have changed brokers from Alpari UK to IBFX Australia. Once Tom's EA is able to authenticate again, I will open my new account up for public viewing.

   flopps posted:
   For those following my account.... I have closed out all positions and have changed brokers from Alpari UK to IBFX Australia. Once Tom's EA is able to authenticate again, I will open my new account up for public viewing.

Flopps, can I ask why you are changing from Alpari? I was considering opening an account with them soon as well as my current GKFX.

I did notice that their spreads were not good (Spreadbetting). Is there any other reason?

You can PM me if you want.

Cheers

I would like to point out an issue which I have discovered on my Tradency account. I am in the USA, so I am under the 50:1 leverage rule. I have been running a number of Tradency demos for a couple of months and went live recently.

I have noticed that my 'used margin' on myl live account is 4 times higher than my demo. I spoke with the folks at FXDD, and they confirmed that the reason was that the Tradency demo was under the 200:1 rules. The live account is under the 50:1 rules. I do not remember specifying that the demo accounts be set up as 200:1 account.

I set up the live account at minimal risk, even lower than Tom's lowest setting. However, we are currently going into a drawdown on the eurusd and gbpusd, so I will be watching the margin closely. It doesn't appear to be a problem, given my risk setting.

This is just a warning to those who are running Tradency demos and then switch to live, under the 50:1 rules. Watch the margin.

   chairman posted:
   Way back at the start when we all watched that 3 and a half hour webinar, presumably we made notes. I certainly did. I've got this, from somewhere between 2:35 and 2:43 :

What happens if the authentication server goes down ? They have a way to mass authenticate everybody. Never happened yet but there is a plan. The way it’s set up now it’s not a big issue for a number of reasons.

Seems that this exact scenario has just happened, why can't we all just get mass authenticated ?

Gary

This is exactly what we've done. Are you experiencing issues with authorizing EA ? If so - please contact support through [email protected] and we will do our best to help you

   drsong123 posted:
   So far my tradency account with real money has been performing very normally. I have to command Dustin took his responsiblity to keep all subscribers informed about this unfortunate event. I hope nobody will lose any money over this.
One of important question has kept me sleepless is how to deal with TomEA when margin drop to dangerous level, go flat? deactive ea, cut risk level, remove pairs has no open positions? I hope Dustin or Ivan or Tom can give us some guidlines even though this may be rare. but this question should not be ignored since Tome Ea basically is based on martingale principle.
ss

I doubt that this will ever happen, with proper settings of course
New version has got variable that regulates max possible dd level - this would be emergency exit point if something will go really wrong
As for the Tradency, I think that Dustin has got exact info, but I think the emergency stop up there is placed at 40% of DD

When this level is reached for both EA and Tradency - all positions will be closed this would protect you from margin call

Hi, Ivan
MaxDD is only one of factors on margin. the other one is total open position. By definition, margin used is total position say $20000 (0.2 lot) divided by leverage. if leverage is 50:1. then margin used is 20000/50=400. for 5000 account, free margin = equity (balance-balance*dd) - margin used. Based on this infomation, maxdd alone can be misleading. It will be very helpful if TomEA can send an alert when free margin drop below user defined level through email since not all brokers want this feature for their clients.
Just a summary of Fughe and others posts regarding some of safe and successful practice of TomEA.
1. alway use minimal risk level and limit numbers of pairs in order to avoid margin call at all cost
2. monitor free margin as well as total open positions since for $5000 account if total postions above 0.3lot (30000), about 80% dd will trigger margin call
3. use VPS or better tradency to prevent interuption of ea
4. when margin fall to uncomfortable level, use following guidline in the order from top to bottom
        add more money, may not in time to prevent margin call
        deactive pairs have no open position
        lower risk level
        close one or more positions have worst dd. or close position with highest lot and hope next trade will recovery earlier loss (I am not sure which one is better, my gues is depend many things)

I encourage everyone add his own opion and trading practice so that we all can learn from them.
ss

@tradingshed

Alpari UK only allows a maximum and total of 2 standard lots to be open at any one time on their Micro accounts. Th don't allow less then 0.1 lots on their standard account. Hence the change.

   flopps posted:
   @tradingshed

Alpari UK only allows a maximum and total of 2 standard lots to be open at any one time on their Micro accounts. Th don't allow less then 0.1 lots on their standard account. Hence the change.

Was that their standard micro or their spreadbetting account?

Thank you

@tradingshed

Not familiar with their spreadbetting account. Mine was a standard micro account. Personally i think they are a very good broker, however this particular restriction has forced me close all 3 accounts I have with them.

Flopps, you always have the option with Alpari to open another micro account
and move some of your profits into that everytime you think you are getting
anywhere near the 2 standard lot max.
That way more of your money is actually working for you.

Thanks to Tom and Dustin for a great EA! Having said that, I have put together some thoughts about risk, particularly considering US accounts and 50:1 margin.

I took a look at Tom’s account re the recovery of the EURJPY trade. The final sequence of lot sizing for the EURJPY Martingale series was as follows:

1 (600 pip loss, closed on 1/5 for a .94% loss)
1 (600 pip loss, closed on 1/6 for a .93% loss)
1 (600 pip loss, closed on 1/9 for a .97% loss)

All below trades closed on 1/19:
3 (-1.65%)
6 (-2.42%)
9 (-1.94%)
12 (-1.23%)
15 (0.32%)
15 (1.08%)
12 (2.52%
15 (4.49%)

Price dropped around 800 pips during this sequence. The winning pullback from the low was around 215 pips. The final 'lot count' of open orders prior to resolution was 87 lots. The final result, with all orders closed, appears to be a 1.67% loss. However, this is only the Martingale sequence, and does NOT include the gains which occurred during the winning hedged short trades during the downtrend. I eyeballed those trades and it appears that the net result was breakeven or better, after factoring those trades in as well. Feel free to correct me anyone, if my math is wrong or if I have forgotten anything.
 
So, the moral to the story appears to be:

1) Patience – The resolution of the EURJPY sequence took about 6 weeks.
2) Risk setting - The account balance must be sufficient to survive the risk assigned.
3) Margin - Margin must be considered with the risk assessment.
4) Correlated pairs, risk and margin – If one is trading only EURUSD and GBPUSD, correlation should be considered. If the above EURJPY scenario occurred with the EURUSD and GBPUSD at the same time (not likely, but it could happen), you would be looking at a final combined 174 open lots (87x2) at the MINIMUM risk setting.

I currently have 26 lots open on my live account, which equates to 8% used margin in FXDD at 50:1. I agree with fugh that the best approach, if there is a threat of margin call, is to add more funds and ride it out. The EA has shown the ability to eventually recover, as long as there is no margin call. The importance of the risk levels upon margin is extremely clear, given the potential for a EURJPY situation, particularly on a 50:1 account.

Happy trading to everyone, and be safe!

Hi, tyoung6608.
good effect on eurjpy sequence. since TomEA does not use stop loss (many advantages in this highly manipulted market), black swan event WILL happen just matter of when. in order to prepare for it, it is good to know during a largest capulation trend, what is max open positions TomEA will trade. so far based on your research, we know 87 micro lot for a 800 pips trend. Do you have a counts on how many trades on this sequesnce? based on my calculation, for $5000 1:50 leverage account, only need about 60% dd will trigger margin call. So my suggestion is for $5000 account, when there is 40 lot open, you should start pay close attention since threshold for margin call will be 80%.
ss

It was technically 90 micro lots altogether, but the first 3 trades closed at a small loss by the time the last trade in the sequence was entered. There were 11 long entries in the Martingale sequence. I am not sure how many short winning trades occurred during the same time frame.

I am also not sure about the drawdown vs. margin calculation. I am watching the 'margin used' percentage all by itself. I am confident that the EA will recover from the drawdowns, as it has done historically. The question for me, as you have pointed out, is the black swan event which could result in a margin call with a 50:1 acount, prior to the EA eventually recovering.

I am sure that Tom's risk settings have taken into account historical price movement, ie runaway trends. However, 200:1 and 50:1 are apples and oranges, so it appears that the issue of risk setting vs. margin must consider the different leverage.

   tyoung6608 posted:
I am sure that Tom's risk settings have taken into account historical price movement, ie runaway trends. However, 200:1 and 50:1 are apples and oranges, so it appears that the issue of risk setting vs. margin must consider the different leverage.

You are correct. They have taken leverage into account. If you read very carefully, they recommend a leverage of 400:1 for the recommended account sizes. They know they possible DD is huge.😀